Annual Report on China’s Petroleum, Gas and New Energy Industry (2022–2023)

Contents
Part I Macro Trends
1 Global Energy Outlook in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
	The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Global Political and Economic Landscape
		Global Political Landscape
		Global Economic Landscape
	The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Global Energy Development
		Direct Impact on the Global Oil and Gas Market
		Impact on Energy Structure and Energy Transition
	Conclusion
	Bibliography
2 China’s Carbon Emission Peak Goals, Strategies and Policies
	China’s Goals for Carbon Emission Peak
	China’s Strategies for Carbon Emission Peak
		Spatial Concentration of Carbon Emissions at the National Level
		Spatial Concentration of Carbon Emissions at the Provincial Level
	Policy Suggestions for Achieving Peak Carbon Emissions in China
		Integrate Different Measures to Promote Smooth Emission Reduction in High-Emission Industries
		Reduce Carbon Emissions in High-Emission Areas Based on Spatial Characteristics Properly
	Bibliography
3 Carbon Market Outlook in the Context of Global Carbon Neutrality
	Development Background of Global Carbon Neutrality
	The Current Situation of International Carbon Market Development
		EU Carbon Market Prices Rise Steadily
		Transactions in Other International Carbon Markets
		International Voluntary Emission Reduction Trading
		Current Development of International Carbon Tariff
	The Current Situation of China’s Carbon Market Development
		Introduction of Local Pilot Carbon Market
		Introduction to China’s National Carbon Market
		Introduction to China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER)
	Suggestions for the Development of China’s Carbon Market
		Suggestion to Include More Types of Trading Entities to Increase Market Liquidity
		Suggestion to Increase Trading Varieties and Enrich the Means of Carbon Asset Management
		Strengthen Data Quality Management and Establish a Scientific Accounting System
		Clarify Carbon Trading Invoicing System and Regulate Carbon Market’s Tax Requirements
	Bibliography
Part II Petroleum
4 New Features of the Global Oil Market in the Context of High Oil Prices
	Comparison of Three Oil Price Highs in History
		2008: Oil Prices Soared to a Peak of $146/Barrel
		2011–2014: Oil Prices Remained High Above $100/Barrel for 3.5 Years
		Late February to July 2022: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Pushed Oil Prices Quickly up to the $100/Barrel Mark
		Comparison of Three Oil Price Highs
	New Features of the Global Oil Market Under the Current High Oil Price
		High Oil Prices: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Pushed Oil Prices Quickly up to the $100/Barrel Mark
		High Discount: Crude Oil Spot Discount Surged Higher
		High Gross Margin: Refining Margins Continued to Strengthen and then Retreated Slightly in the Second Half
		High Demand: The Overall Global Demand Is Steadily Recovering
		Low Supply: OPEC\'s Growth Was Sluggish and Global Oil Supply Has Slowed Significantly
		Low Inventories: Global Oil Stocks Ran at a Low Level, and Europe and the US Jointly Released Reserves
		Strong Structure: The Benchmark Crude Oil Price Had a Strengthened Structure and the First Line Spread Has Widened Significantly
	Suggestions for Response by China\'s Oil Market
		Promote the Increase of Reserves and Production, and Deepen the Reform of Oil and Gas System
		Give Full Play to the Consumption Potential of the Domestic Market and Continue to Enhance Trade Capacity
		Improve the Rotation Mechanism of Strategic Oil Reserves to Ensure Energy Security
		Give Full Play to the Advantages of Financial Capital and Promote the Internationalization of RMB
		Accelerate the Construction of the National Carbon Market and Promote the Green Low-Carbon Development of the Oil Industry
	Bibliography
5 Global Oil Supply Analysis and Outlook in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
	Situation of OPEC+ Crude Oil Production
		OPEC+ Countries Have Strong Willingness to Limit Production to Protect Prices
		OPEC+’s Actual Production Increase Fell Short of Its Target
		Russia-Ukraine Conflict Became the Biggest Black Swan Event in 2022
	The Future of Iranian Nuclear Negotiations Is Uncertain, and Venezuela Is Still Under Sanctions
	Non-OPEC+ Oil-Producing Countries Still Have a Small Increase in Production
	Global Oil Supply Growth Will Slow Down in 2023
	Forecast of Global Oil Supply in the Medium and Long Term
		As Low Carbon Emission Reduction Becomes the Global Theme, Upstream Oil and Gas Capital Investment Will Decrease
		Geopolitical Unrest Is Frequent, so Part of the Time There May Be Supply Shortages
	Bibliography
6 Outlook for Global Oil Demand in the Post-COVID-19 Era
	Global Oil Demand Is Recovering in 2022
		The Global Economy Bottomed out and Rebounded
		While Major Countries’ Demand Is Recovering, China\'s Oil Demand Has Been Hit Hard
		In 2022, the Demand for Jet Fuel Rebounded Significantly, and That for Gasoline Recovered Less than Expected
	Global Oil Demand Is Expected to Maintain Steady Growth in 2023
		The Downside Risks Facing the Global Macro Economy Have Increased, and Inflation Remains High
		The World\'s Major Economies Are Expected to See Limited Growth in Oil Demand
		In 2023, the Demand for Diesel Oil Will Recover Slowly, While the Demand for Jet Fuel Will Recover Well
	The Trend of Global Medium- and Long-Term Oil Demand
	Conclusion
	Bibliography
7 Development Status and Prospect of Global Oil Refining Industry
	The Global Refining Industry Gradually Recovered from the Pandemic in 2021, but the Refining Capacity Declined for the First Time in 30 Years
		In the Post-Pandemic Era, Refinery Projects Were Delayed, and a Wave of Refinery Closures Continues Globally
		Crude Oil Processing Capacity of Refineries Globally
		The Processing Revenue of Major Refining Centers in the World Has Been Repaired, but is Still at a Low Level
		Crack Spreads of Major Oil Products Have Rebounded Steadily, and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Has Continued Its Strong Growth
	In the Post-Pandemic Era, the Global Oil Refining Industry Will Gradually Come Out of the Doldrums
		Global Refining Capacity Resumes Rapid Growth
		The Refining Industry Will See a Gradual Recovery in the Post-Pandemic Era, but Refining Gross Margins Are Difficult to Restore to Pre-Pandemic Level
	Medium- and Long-Term Outlook for the Oil Refining Industry
	Bibliography
8 Analysis of the New Trend of Global Crude Oil Trade
	Current Situation of Global Crude Oil Trade in 2021
		In 2021, the Total Amount of Global Crude Oil Trade Decreased, and the Eastward Shift of Trade Center Slowed Down
		China\'s Crude Oil Imports Declined for the First Time in 20 Years, with a Significant Increase in the Middle East as the Source of Imports
		US Crude Oil Exports Fell for the First Time in Six Years Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
		OPEC + Slowly Increased Production, with Crude Oil Exports Picking up Slightly
	Global Crude Oil Trade in 2022
		Resilient Growth of Global Crude Oil Trade
		Structural Adjustment of Global Crude Oil Trade Flows
	Medium- and Long-Term Outlook for Global Crude Oil Trade
		Geopolitical Impact on Global Crude Oil Trade Intensifies
		Increasing Uncertainty in Global Crude Oil Trade and the Decline of Russia\'s Crude Oil Trade Position
		The Short Term Cooling of the Energy Transition Will Still Reshape the Oil Trade Pattern
	Bibliography
Part III Natural Gas
9 Global Natural Gas Market and Changing Trends of Natural Gas Trade
	Overview of the Global Natural Gas Market
		Since the Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine, the Tension of Global Natural Gas Supply Has Intensified
		The Growth Rate of Natural Gas Demand Slows Down, and the Demand in Europe May Drop Significantly
		Natural Gas Prices Hit Record Highs, with Europe Leading the Asia–Pacific Price Trend
		LNG Transportation Market Fluctuates Violently
	Characteristics of Global Natural Gas Trade
		Russia\'s Natural Gas Exports Declined Under European and American Sanctions
		US LNG Exports Grew Strongly
		Europe is Committed to Seeking Multi-Source Import Sources
		China\'s LNG Import Growth Slowed Sharply
	Medium and Long-Term Outlook
		The Goals of Peak Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutrality Push up the Global Demand for Natural Gas, and the Emissions Probably Peak Around 2035
		The Global Natural Gas Supply is Gradually Increasing, and May Peak in 10 Years
	Bibliography
10 Analysis on High-Quality Development of Natural Gas Industry in China
	Development Status of China’s Natural Gas Industry
		Development Status of Commodity Market Structure
		Current Status of Construction of Major Systems and Rules
		Current Situation of Market Supervision
	Major Problems Facing the High-Quality Development of the Natural Gas Industry
		Rationalize the Balance Between Opening of Upstream Exploration and Development and Natural Gas Supply Assurance
		Achieve the Resonance Between the Construction of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism and the Competitiveness of the Industry
		Achieve Synergy Between Short-Term Growth of Natural Gas Scale and Long-Term Carbon Emission Reduction
	Suggestions for the High-Quality Development of the Natural Gas Industry
		Deepen Reform and Accelerate the Diversification of Natural Gas Suppliers
		Driven by Innovation, Steadily Advance Price Reform and Market-Oriented Development
		Take the Initiative to Establish and Improve the Natural Gas Supervision System
		Establish a Strategic Mindset and Plan the Transformation and Upgrading of Natural Gas in a Scientific Manner
	References
11 Progress and Suggestions on Institutional Mechanism Reform of Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure in China
	Introduction
	Progress on Institutional Mechanism Reform of Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure in China
		Independent Ownership of Trunk Pipeline Infrastructure
		Progress of Integration of Some Provincial Networks Into the National Pipeline Network
		Initial Establishment of Rules for Price Management and Cost Monitoring under the System of Separation of Transportation and Sales
		Improved Opening of Spare Capacity to Third Parties
		Initial Formation of the Regulatory System
	Main Problems at this Stage
		There are Shortcomings in the Construction and Development of Pipeline Infrastructure
		The Operation Rules of Pipeline Network Need to be Refined and Improved
		The Degree of Information Disclosure Needs to be Improved
		Supervision System Construction Needs to be Strengthened
		The Integration of Provincial Network into the National Management Network Needs to be Deepened
	Suggestions on Institutional Mechanism Reform of Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure in China
		Accelerate the Upgrading of Natural Gas Infrastructure Capacity
		Improve the Detailed Rules for the Operation and Scheduling of Pipeline Network
		Establish a “National Network” Supporting Interconnection and Separation of Transportation and Sales
		Leverage the Pricing Reform of Pipeline Transmission Services with Regional Pilots
		Improve the Regulatory System Centered on Information Disclosure and Fair Opening
		Allow Some Pipeline Network Infrastructure to Be Exempted from Opening to Third Parties
		Increase the Adaptability of Infrastructures to “Dual Carbon” Development
	References
12 Analysis and Suggestions on the Scenarios of Integrated Development Between Natural Gas and Other Energy Resources Under the Goals of Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutrality
	Introduction
	The Development Environment Faced by the Gas Industry Under the Goals of Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutrality
		The New Landscape Facing the Development of the Industry
		The Role of Gas in Building China’s Clean Energy System
	Analysis of Application Scenarios for the Integrated Development of Gas and Multiple Energy Sources
		Integrated Development of Natural Gas and New Energy
		Integrated Development of Natural Gas and Hydrogen Energy
		Integrated Development of Natural Gas and Biogas
	Suggestions on the Integrated Development of Gas and Various Energy Sources
		Firm Confidence in Industry Development
		Strengthen the Construction of Market Mechanism
		Build a New Ecology of Industrial Development
		Promote Technological Collaborative Innovation
		Strengthen International Cooperation
	Conclusion
	References
13 Development Status and Prospect of Gas Distributed Energy Industry
	Introduction
	Development Status of Gas Distributed Energy Industry
		Market Scale of Natural Gas Distributed Energy
		Industrial Development Conditions
		Technology Route and Core Equipment of Gas Distributed Energy
		Problems in the Development of Gas Distributed Energy
	Prospect of Gas Distributed Energy Industry
		Forecast of the Development of Gas Distributed Energy
		Trend of the Development of Gas Distributed Energy
	Suggestions on Promoting the Development of Gas Distributed Energy Industry
		Policy-Level Suggestions
		Market-Level Suggestions
		Technology-Level Suggestions
Part IV New Energy
14 Hydrogen Production from Renewable Energy: Current Status, Prospects and Challenges
	The Practical Significance of China\'s Active Development of the Renewable Energy-to-Hydrogen Industry
	Development Status of Hydrogen Production from Renewable Energy in China and Abroad
		Development Status of Hydrogen Production from Renewable Energy Around the World
		Development Status of Hydrogen Production from Renewable Energy in China
	The Development and Trend of the Renewable Energy-to-Hydrogen Technology
		The Development and Trend of the Electrolytic Water-to-Hydrogen Technology
	The Development and Trend of Hydrogen Energy Storage and Transportation Technology
	Economics of the Renewable Energy-to-Hydrogen Technology
		Production Cost
		Storage and Transportation Cost
	The Main Challenges for the Development of Renewable Energy-to-Hydrogen Industry in China
	Countermeasures and Suggestions
	References
15 Advanced Bio-Liquid Fuels: An Important Means to Achieve Carbon Neutrality in Transportation
	Background of Carbon Emission Reduction in the Transportation Sector
		Peak Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutrality
		Carbon Emissions in the Transportation Sector and Challenges
		Future Development Trend of Transportation in China
		Bio-liquid Fuels as An Important Means to Achieve Carbon Neutrality in Transportation
	Status of the Advanced Bio-Liquid Fuel Industry
		Definition and Classification of Advanced Bio-Liquid Fuel
		Biofuel Ethanol
		Biodiesel
		Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)
	Prospect of the Advanced Bio-liquid Fuel Industry
		Future Development Trend
		Promotion Model
		Industrial Development Path
	References
16 The Practice Exploration, Suggestions for Reflection and Development Prospects of the Hydrogen Energy Industry in China
	Practice Exploration of Hydrogen Energy Industry
		Continuous Improvement of Policy System
		Significant Progress in Core Technology
		Gradual Diversification of Hydrogen Energy Supply Path
		Expanding Terminal Applications
		Continuous Strengthening of Business Cooperation
	Reflections and Suggestions
		There is an Urgent Need to Break Through Policy and Regulatory Constraints
		Support the Diversified Development of Hydrogen Energy Production, Transmission and Use
		Insist on Promoting Independent Innovation of Core Technology
		Play the Driving Role of Demonstration City Cluster
	Development Prospects
		A New Stage of Large-Scale Development of the Industry
		Independent Control of Core Technology and Equipment
		An Efficient and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Energy Supply System
		Expanding Application Scenarios of Hydrogen Energy
	References
17 Current Status and Outlook of CCUS Industry in China
	Current Status of CCUS Industry in China
		Technical Overview
		National Policies
		Project Progress
	Issues of CCUS Development
		Technical Issues
		Economic Issues
		Social Issues
	Forecast of the Future of CCUS
		CCUS\'s Technical Development Trend
		CCUS\'s Economic Development Trend
		Potential Environmental Risks of CCUS and Countermeasures
	References
18 Economic Evaluation and Future Feasibility Analysis of the Coal Chemical Industry Coupled with Green Hydrogen Technology
	Introduction
	Development Trend of the Coal Chemical Industry and Hydrogen Energy Industry in China
		Industrial Development Status
		Industrial Policy Analysis
	Analysis of the Technical Pathways of the Green Hydrogen-Coal Chemical Coupling
		Technical Pathways of Hydrogen Production
		Hydrogen Production from Fossil Energy and Future Direction of Development
		Hydrogen Production from Electrolysis of Water and Future Direction of Development
		Analysis of the Technical Pathways of the Green Hydrogen-Coal Chemical Coupling
	Future Feasibility Analysis of the Coal Chemical Industry Coupled with Green Hydrogen Technology
		Analysis of the Cost Structure and Cost Reduction Potential of Green Hydrogen
		Cost Prediction of the Green Hydrogen-Coal Chemical Coupling
		Cost Prediction of the Coal Chemical Process with CCS
		Comparison of the Future Feasibility of Green Power-to-Hydrogen and Coal-to-Hydrogen
	Conclusions and Recommendations
	References
19 The Present and Future of Sustainable Aviation Fuels in China
	Development of the Global Aviation Industry and Carbon Emission Reduction
		Development of the Aviation Industry
		Carbon Emission Reduction and SAF in the Aviation Industry
	Current Development of China\'s SAF Industry Chain
		Producers
		Suppliers
		Users
	Outlook for SAF Development in China
		Technical Pathways
		Production Capacity
		Availability of Feedstocks
		Standards Development
	Policy Suggestions
		Further Clarification of the Policy Direction
		Formation of Inter-Ministerial Working Groups and Development of Action Plans
		Strengthened Assessment of Basic Information and Economic Analysis of Feedstocks
		Collective Action of the Industry Chain
		Support for Technological Innovation
		Active Pilot Applications
	References
Part V Electricity
20 Analysis of China’s Electricity Market Under the New Round of Reform
	Overview of China\'s Electricity Market
		Saw a Rebound in Social Electricity Consumption and an Increasingly Optimized Structure
		As the Installed Power Generation Capacity Continued to Rise, the Proportion of Non-Fossil Energy Exceeded that of Coal-Fired Power for the First Time
		Power Supply and Demand Was Tight Overall, and Energy Consumption Index Continued to Decline
		National Power Investment Hit a 10-Year High and the Scale of Grid Construction Gradually Expanded
	China\'s Electricity Market Reform and System Construction
		China\'s Electric Power Market Reform
		Overview of China\'s Electricity Market System Construction
	Development Trend and Direction of China\'s Electricity Market
		Establishment of a National Unified Electricity Market
		Gradual Improvement of Electricity Spot Market
		Transition to a Clean and Low-Carbon Electricity Market
		Mutual Recognition of Green Power Trading and Carbon Trading
	References
21 Main Challenges and Countermeasures for New Energy Development in China Under the Construction of New Power System
	Current Situation of New Energy Development in China
		Rich Endowment of New Energy Resources in China
		Rapid Growth of New Energy Installations and Continuous Improvement of the Industrial Chain
		High Level of Utilization of New Energy, with Steadily Enhanced Marketization
	Challenges for New Energy Development in China
		Economy
		Market Mechanism Construction
		Power System Security
		Supply Chain Security
	Security Measures for the Development of New Energy in China
		Increase the Flexible Regulation Capacity of the Power System
		Build a Fair and Efficient Electricity Market
		Give Full Play to the Complementary Effect of Power-To-X
		Strengthen the Development Pattern of Distributed Energy and Microgrid
		Promote the Development of Circular Economy and “New Energy +”
	References