Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes

Content: 
Edited by
Page 3

Copyright page
Page 4

Preface
Pages 9-10
Patrick Humphreys, Ola Svenson, Anna Vári

Acknowledgements
Page 11

Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 15-22
Patrick Humphreys

Evaluation of Mortality Risks for Institutional Decisions Original Research Article
Pages 23-38
Ralph L. Keeney

The Role of Risk Assessment in a Political Decision Process Original Research Article
Pages 39-68
John Lathrop, Joanne Linnerooth

A Multi-Attribute Multi-Party Model of Choice: Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations Original Research Article
Pages 69-89
Howard Kunreuther

The Role of Decision Analysis in International Nuclear Safeguards Original Research Article
Pages 91-103
Rex V. Brown, Jacob W. Ulvila

A Decision Analytic System for Regulating Quality of Care in Nursing Homes: System Design and Evaluation Original Research Article
Pages 105-120
David H. Gustafson, Robert Peterson, Edward Kopetsky, Rich Van Koningsveld, Ann Macco, Sandra Casper, Joseph Rossmeissl

Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 123-124
János Vecsenyi, Detlof Von Winterfeldt

Systems Analysis and Decision Making Original Research Article
Pages 125-144
Oleg I. Larichev

Applying Decision Analysis in an Organisational Context Original Research Article
Pages 145-166
Andrew R. Lock

Pitfalls of Decision Analysis Original Research Article
Pages 167-181
Detlof Von Winterfeldt

Decision Analysis of Industrial R & D Problems: Pitfalls and Lessons Original Research Article
Pages 183-195
Anna Vári, János Vecsenyi

Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 199-203
Anna Vári

Human Engineering of Decision Aids Original Research Article
Pages 205-221
Gordon F. Pitz

The Role of the Goal for Generating Actions Original Research Article
Pages 223-236
Helmut Jungermann, Ingrid Von Ulardt, Lutz Hausmann

Fuzzy Structural Modelling—An Aid for Decision Making Original Research Article
Pages 237-252
Dimiter S. Driankov, Ivan Stantchev

Use of Problem Structuring Techniques for Option Generation: A Computer Choice Case Study Original Research Article
Pages 253-279
Patrick Humphreys

Non-Expert Use of a Computerized Decision Aid Original Research Article
Pages 281-299
Fred Bronner, Robert De Hoog

The Quality and User Acceptance of Multiat-Tribute Utility Analysis Performed by Computer and Analyst Original Research Article
Pages 301-319
Richard S. John, Detlof Von Winterfeldt, Ward Edwards

Interdependence between Problem Structuring and Attribute Weighting in Transitional Decision Problems Original Research Article
Pages 321-334
Stuart Wooler, Alma Erlich

Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 337-341
Ola Svenson, Patrick Humphreys

Decision Rules and the Search for a Dominance Structure: Towards a Process Model of Decision Making Original Research Article
Pages 343-369
Henry Montgomery

Scaling Evaluative Statements in Verbal Protocols from Decision Processes Original Research Article
Pages 371-382
Ola Svenson

To Smoke or Not to Smoke: Conflict or Lack of Differentiation? Original Research Article
Pages 383-400
Lennart Sjöberg

Analysis of Predecisional Information Search Patterns Original Research Article
Pages 401-414
Joshua Klayman

Reasons Given for Risky Judgment and Choice: A Comparison of Three Tasks Original Research Article
Pages 415-428
Rob Ranyard, Ray Crozier

The Reliability and Validity of Concurrent, Retrospective, and Interpretive Verbal Reports: An Experimental Study Original Research Article
Pages 429-440
Eduard J. Fidler

The Information Presented and Actually Processed in a Decision Task Original Research Article
Pages 441-454
Oswald Huber

The Role of Second-Order Probabilities in Decision Making Original Research Article
Pages 455-467
Robert W. Goldsmith, Nils-Eric Sahlin

The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of Subjective Probability for True-False Questions: Model and Experiment Original Research Article
Pages 469-488
Mariam Smith, William R. Ferrell

The Surprisingness of Coincidences Original Research Article
Pages 489-502
Ruma Falk, Don Macgregor

Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 505-506
Willem-Albert Wagenaar

Human Cognitive Capabilities, Representativeness, and Ground Rules for Research Original Research Article
Pages 507-513
Ward Edwards

Reconstructive Criticism Original Research Article
Pages 515-523
Baruch Fischhoff

A Theoretical Perspective on Heuristics and Biases in Probabilistic Thinking Original Research Article
Pages 525-543
Lawrence D. Phillips

Author Index
Pages 545-552

Subject Index
Pages 553-565