Agricultural Economics

Series Editors\r......Page 2
Copyright\r......Page 3
Introduction to the Series\r......Page 4
Contents of the Handbook......Page 5
Macroeconomics, Macrosectoral Policies, and Agriculture in Developing Countries......Page 11
What are the macroeconomic problems and issues considered?......Page 12
Macroeconomic accounts......Page 14
Macroeconomic links to agriculture and the rural sector......Page 20
In summary......Page 22
Brief characterization of macroeconomic and agricultural structural issues in developing countries......Page 23
Heterogeneity of country conditions......Page 24
Heterogeneity of agricultural conditions: Production and food security......Page 25
Heterogeneity of agricultural conditions: Trade......Page 28
Half a century of world macroeconomic developments: An overview......Page 29
Growth......Page 31
Volatility and crises......Page 38
World Monetary Conditions, Inflation, and Interest Rates......Page 39
Commodity prices......Page 43
Exchange rates of key currencies......Page 50
Capital flows and debt......Page 53
Current Accounts and External Imbalances......Page 58
World trade......Page 62
Macroeconomic and development policies in developing countries, circa 1950s and 1960s......Page 65
The importance of industrialization in the process of development......Page 66
The belief that markets and the price system would not adequately guide the necessary process of investment and capital accumu......Page 68
Inflation was considered an unwanted yet inevitable result of the growth process in the context of nonintegrated and unbalance......Page 69
Reassessment of macroeconomic and development policies in the 1970s......Page 70
Macroeconomic debates and crises in the 1980s and early 1990s......Page 75
Macroeconomic policies and the agricultural sector......Page 76
Background......Page 80
Fiscal trends in developing countries5454Fiscal data is from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank. It provides a......Page 83
Expenditures......Page 85
Taxes......Page 87
Background......Page 89
Trends in monetary conditions......Page 94
Dollarization......Page 96
Inflation targeting......Page 99
Monetary and financial issues linked to agriculture......Page 103
Nominal rates......Page 107
Real exchange rates......Page 108
Financial aspects......Page 110
Equilibrium exchange rates......Page 111
Exchange rate regimes, policies, and outcomes......Page 115
Exchange rates and agricultural growth......Page 120
Devaluations......Page 123
Regional differences......Page 125
Equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments......Page 126
\"Commodity currencies\"\r......Page 127
Volatility in ER......Page 128
Dutch Disease......Page 129
Background......Page 130
Trends in trade policies......Page 132
Trade and agricultural goods: Trends in protection......Page 133
Agricultural protection, poverty, and food security......Page 135
Production and import tax differentials......Page 137
Where have all the biases gone?......Page 138
Production trends......Page 146
The 1960s and the 1970s......Page 151
The 1980s......Page 153
The 1990s......Page 155
The 2000s......Page 156
Some Concluding Words......Page 160
Bibliography......Page 173
International Trade Policies Affecting Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries......Page 190
Introduction......Page 191
National Distortions to Incentives: Basic Theory......Page 193
Direct agricultural distortions......Page 194
Domestic producer and consumer price-distorting measures......Page 195
What if the exchange rate system is also distorting prices?......Page 196
What if trade costs are sufficiently high for the product to be not traded internationally?......Page 198
The mean of agricultural NRAs......Page 199
The Technology Mastery (TM) Index......Page 200
Indirect agricultural assistance/taxation via nonagricultural distortions......Page 201
The long history in high-income countries......Page 202
Developing countries since the 1950s......Page 204
National Distortions to Farmer Incentives: Empirical Estimates Since the 1950s......Page 205
Total factor productivity: Brazil and regions......Page 212
Economywide Effects of Past Reforms and Remaining Policies......Page 215
Prospects for Further Reductions in Distortions......Page 217
References......Page 224
Development Aid and Agriculture......Page 228
Introduction......Page 229
Development Aid and National Economic Growth......Page 231
Aid\'s contribution to agricultural growth......Page 232
Agriculture in low-income countries......Page 234
Agriculturewide reviews......Page 235
Aid to Africa\'s agriculture......Page 237
Income growth and diet diversification......Page 238
Lumpy inputs......Page 241
Irrigation and water management......Page 242
USAID......Page 243
Summary and conclusion......Page 436
Africa irrigation......Page 245
The impact of irrigation aid......Page 246
Subsidized farm credit......Page 247
Cross-country studies......Page 386
Microcredit......Page 249
Integrated rural development......Page 250
USAID......Page 251
World Bank......Page 252
Agricultural research......Page 254
Research evaluation......Page 255
Returns to research......Page 256
International Agricultural Research......Page 257
USAID CRSP......Page 258
Education and agricultural development......Page 259
Agricultural higher education......Page 261
Institutional misdesign?......Page 264
Summary......Page 265
Conclusion......Page 272
References......Page 275
Plantations Agriculture......Page 280
Introduction......Page 281
Family farms versus plantations......Page 282
National responses......Page 284
Preemption of frontier lands......Page 286
Agriculture\'s contribution to development in a changing world......Page 287
Increasing drawbacks......Page 288
Some evidence from Southeast Asia......Page 289
Via redistributive land reform......Page 292
Via contract farming......Page 293
China (1952-1997)......Page 383
References......Page 296
Farm Size......Page 298
Introduction......Page 299
Summary......Page 300
Introduction......Page 301
Economic development and farm size in the late 20th century......Page 304
The mix of family and hired workers and development......Page 309
The theory of farm size......Page 311
Farm size and efficiency......Page 318
Scale economies in processing and marketing......Page 320
Capital-related transaction costs......Page 321
Labor-related transaction costs......Page 322
Research and policy implications......Page 533
Pulses......Page 461
Evidence on scale economies and the ``inverse relationship´´......Page 325
The argument of this section......Page 327
Continued emphasis on promoting agriculture as an \"engine of growth\"\r......Page 853
In such areas, why did colonizers tend to farm large, unequal holdings?......Page 328
Evidence of interregional disparities......Page 329
Definition, initial situations,34a candidate land reforms\r......Page 330
The distributivist LA model......Page 332
South Asia......Page 333
Latin America......Page 334
Other regions......Page 337
Titling, registration......Page 338
Patrialization......Page 339
Changing market and price trends for food and agriculture......Page 340
Consolidation......Page 341
Settlement schemes......Page 342
State and collective farms......Page 344
Privatization and decollectivization......Page 345
New Wave land reform (NWLR)......Page 346
Social impacts......Page 347
OECD farm support: effect on farm size......Page 348
Forex and other farm price repression in poor countries: Farm-size effects......Page 350
Progressive land taxes to affect farm size?......Page 351
Liberalization and small farms in poor countries: Supermarkets, grades, horticulture, and intermediation failure......Page 352
References......Page 361
Appendix......Page 369
Production, Productivity, and Public Investment in East Asian Agriculture......Page 373
Introduction......Page 374
Mongolia......Page 375
North Korea......Page 376
South Korea......Page 377
Latin America and the Caribbean......Page 378
Primal approach......Page 381
Dual approach......Page 382
Changes in technological capital......Page 384
Taiwan......Page 385
Source of productivity growth in East Asian agriculture......Page 387
Returns to investment......Page 390
Productivity and poverty reduction impact......Page 391
Regional variation......Page 393
Conclusion......Page 394
References......Page 395
Agricultural growth rates and area-yield accounting, 1961-2004......Page 398
Measures of output, input, and TFP growth......Page 403
Rural Poverty and Income Dynamics in Southeast Asia......Page 407
Introduction......Page 408
Conceptual framework and hypotheses......Page 413
Description of the data sets......Page 415
Farm size and landlessness......Page 416
Food production in the CWANA region......Page 518
Evidence of economy and sectorwide impacts......Page 450
Determinants of children\'s schooling......Page 426
Occupational choice and nonfarm income......Page 431
References......Page 438
An Assessment of the Impact of Agricultural Research in South Asia Since the Green Revolution......Page 441
Introduction......Page 442
An economic and social transformation......Page 444
The CGIAR response......Page 448
Assessing the impact of agricultural R&D......Page 449
Economic impact of aggregate R&D investments......Page 451
Defining technological capital......Page 552
Cereals......Page 452
Stability of cereal production......Page 459
Oilseeds......Page 460
Potatoes......Page 462
Social impacts......Page 463
Evidence on impacts within adopting regions......Page 465
Evidence of economy and sectorwide impacts......Page 467
Creating an enabling environment for smallholder transformation......Page 469
Environmental impact pathways......Page 470
The R&D response......Page 474
Organic farming......Page 475
System of rice intensification (SRI)......Page 476
Improved nutrient management......Page 477
Low or zero tillage (ZT)......Page 478
Improved water management......Page 479
Integrated pest management (IPM)......Page 480
Nutrition......Page 481
Crop improvement research......Page 484
Watershed development......Page 485
Policy impacts......Page 486
Bangladesh: Changing the course of food and agricultural policy......Page 487
Conclusion......Page 488
Productivity impacts......Page 489
Policy impacts......Page 490
Food price and growth linkage effects......Page 491
Impact assessment issues......Page 492
References......Page 493
Population Growth and Trends in Food Production and Consumption in the CWANA Region......Page 503
Economic and population trends......Page 510
Migration......Page 514
Food security around the globe......Page 515
Driving forces for slow progress in improving food security......Page 517
Cereals......Page 519
Pulses......Page 522
Food consumption in the CWANA region......Page 525
Changes in the food consumption pattern of the WANA region......Page 529
Major constraints facing the CWANA region......Page 532
References......Page 859
Countries in the process of agricultural modernization......Page 539
The Changing Context and Prospects for Agricultural and Rural Development in Africa......Page 543
Summary......Page 545
Agricultural indicators......Page 546
Global winds of change......Page 547
African growth and agricultural trends......Page 549
Focusing on the \"bottom billion\"......Page 550
Innovation and scaling up......Page 551
Agricultural science and technology......Page 553
The imperative of regionalization......Page 554
Introduction......Page 555
Our approach......Page 556
The past failure to grow and the neglect of agriculture have left the troubling challenge of poverty and hunger......Page 557
Reducing inter-regional differences......Page 562
The 1980s......Page 565
The early 2000s......Page 566
Aid: The new architecture and the magnitude and effectiveness of ODA......Page 570
Global Winds of Change......Page 574
Globalization......Page 575
Trade liberalization......Page 576
International private sector consolidation......Page 577
Global warming and climate change are potentially large but manageable for agriculture......Page 580
Biotechnology and the privatization of agricultural research......Page 583
The acceleration phase of the molecular biology revolution......Page 584
Biofuels: Permanent or transitory global demand factor......Page 585
Trends and spikes in prices of food and raw materials......Page 588
Impacts of energy and fertilizer prices......Page 590
Prices of individual food groups......Page 591
The drivers of demand for food......Page 594
Are higher food prices here to stay?......Page 596
Story Two: Speculators drove prices up and increased volatility......Page 597
Story Four: A combination of permanent structural changes in supply and demand conditions was exacerbated by shocks......Page 598
Sensitivity of projected prices to key assumptions......Page 600
The impact of the price spikes on the balance of trade......Page 602
Impact on domestic producer and consumer prices......Page 603
The likely Impact on poverty of the food price spike......Page 604
Economic and agricultural growth, their sources, and their constraints......Page 606
Poor resource endowments......Page 609
Poor governance and policy......Page 610
Deficient infrastructure and business environment......Page 611
Inadequate capacity......Page 613
Low savings......Page 615
The agenda for economic growth......Page 616
Agricultural growth has accelerated......Page 617
Agriculture suffers from global agricultural trade barriers......Page 618
Domestic taxation of agriculture was exceptionally high but has been reduced......Page 620
The \"bottom billion\"......Page 623
Conflict......Page 624
Natural resources......Page 625
Missing the boat of globalization......Page 626
Aid......Page 627
Other program components......Page 628
The institutional pillars for ARD......Page 629
Pillar 2: Communities, civil society, and social capital......Page 631
Pillar 3: Local government......Page 633
Pillar 4: Sector institutions......Page 634
Pillar 5: The central government and other central institutions......Page 635
The capacity of agricultural and rural institutions......Page 636
Where are the short- and medium-term market opportunities for Africa?......Page 637
Demography......Page 639
Migration, remittances, and the brain drain......Page 640
Gender equity......Page 642
Security of access to resources......Page 643
Rural HIV and AIDS and agriculture......Page 644
The impact of AIDS on agriculture, food, and nutrition......Page 646
Interventions against HIV/AIDS in rural areas......Page 647
Agro-climate, biophysical resources, and natural resources management......Page 648
Africa\'s land resource......Page 649
Water resource issues......Page 651
Irrigation and drainage......Page 652
Fisheries......Page 653
Marginal versus favored areas......Page 655
The future of small farmers......Page 657
Enhancing agricultural profits and rural investment......Page 661
Protection of importables and subsidies for exportables: Not a good idea!......Page 662
Rural finance......Page 663
Barriers to intraregional trade......Page 664
Phytosanitary rules and regulations......Page 665
The growing technology divide......Page 667
The changing nature of technology discovery......Page 669
The institutional framework for agricultural technology generation......Page 670
Returns to agricultural research......Page 673
The most urgent need for action......Page 674
Agricultural science and education institutions......Page 675
The imperative of regionalization......Page 676
References......Page 678
Agricultural Productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean and Sources of Growth......Page 685
Introduction......Page 796
Crop area yield accounting......Page 687
Input productivity and cereal yields......Page 689
Agricultural technology adoption......Page 690
Food demand and population growth......Page 691
LAC GDP per capita......Page 692
Birth rates......Page 694
Infant mortality rates......Page 695
Methodology......Page 696
Enhancing competitivenes:......Page 850
Input index......Page 697
Input Growth Rates......Page 774
Input Growth......Page 700
Productivity ratios......Page 701
Total factor productivity......Page 703
Other LAC TFP studies......Page 705
Agricultural research......Page 707
Studies of rates of return......Page 711
Rural extension services......Page 713
Schooling......Page 714
Analysis of the determinants of TFP growth in LAC......Page 715
Poverty magnitude......Page 717
Factors related to poverty......Page 721
Income distribution......Page 724
Conclusion......Page 727
References......Page 728
Appendix 1......Page 731
Appendix 2......Page 732
Appendix 3......Page 734
Total Factor Productivity Growth in Agriculture......Page 741
Introduction......Page 742
The accounting relationship derivation......Page 743
Production growth rates......Page 744
Empirical evidence for agriculture\'s role......Page 745
TFP estimates by region and country......Page 746
Asia......Page 749
Africa......Page 750
Country classification......Page 756
TFP growth and other economic indicators and technological capital......Page 760
Determinants of TFP growth: A statistical decomposition......Page 763
Policy implications......Page 764
References......Page 767
Output Growth Rates......Page 769
Input Cost Shares......Page 781
Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth......Page 795
Background: Why focus on agriculture?......Page 798
Agriculture productivity growth and poverty reduction......Page 807
Theories of agriculture\'s role......Page 813
Two-sector models......Page 815
The difficulty of identification......Page 817
Cross-section and panel studies......Page 819
Growth accounting and productivity measurement......Page 821
Development accounting......Page 822
CGE models and growth multipliers......Page 823
Returns to research......Page 824
Lessons from economic history......Page 825
Agro-Pessimism......Page 826
Reconciling competing views......Page 827
Conclusion......Page 830
References......Page 832
Agriculture Renaissance: Making “Agriculture for Development” Work\rin the 21st Century......Page 837
Agricultural Growth and Economic Development......Page 839
Gender and Agriculture productivity growth......Page 841
Urban and economy wide impacts of agriculture growth......Page 842
Technology change and access......Page 844
Climate change and agriculture development......Page 845
Countries at the low end of the agricultural transformation process......Page 846
Smallholder Commercialization:......Page 849
Re-orienting agricultural research and development priorities......Page 855
Reducing small farm transactions costs......Page 856
Seeking complementarity between trade and domestic policy......Page 857
Enabling income and livelihood diversification......Page 858
Index......Page 865