Advancing the Science of Climate Change (National Research Council)

Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 2
Copyright......Page 3
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES......Page 4
Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change......Page 6
Foreword: About America’s  Climate Choices......Page 8
Preface......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 14
PART I......Page 18
PART II: TECHNICAL CHAPTERS......Page 19
Summary......Page 24
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 26
A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH......Page 28
Research to Support Effective Responses to Climate Change......Page 29
Tools and Approaches to Improve Both Understanding and Responses......Page 30
Recommendation 1......Page 31
Recommendation 3......Page 33
Recommendation 4......Page 34
Recommendation 5......Page 35
Recommendation 6......Page 36
Recommendation 7......Page 37
Part I......Page 40
1. Introduction: Science for Understanding and Responding to Climate Change......Page 42
SCIENTIFIC LEARNING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 43
Uncertainty in Scientifc Knowledge......Page 44
A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE: RESEARCH FOR  UNDERSTANDING AND RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 45
REPORT OVERVIEW......Page 47
Conclusion 1......Page 50
The Greenhouse Effect is a Natural Phenomenon that Is Critical for Life as We Know It......Page 52
Earth Is Warming......Page 53
The Climate System Exhibits Substantial Natural Variability......Page 56
GHG Emissions and Concentrations Are Increasing......Page 57
Human Activities Are Associated with a Net Warming Effect on Climate......Page 58
Feedback Processes Determine How the Climate System Responds to Forcing......Page 59
Global Warming Can Be Attributed to Human Activities......Page 60
Models and Scenarios Are Used to Estimate Future Climate Change......Page 61
A Multitude of Additional Climate and Climate-Related Changes Are Projected......Page 63
Abrupt Changes May Occur......Page 64
SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT......Page 65
Observations of Sea Level Rise......Page 66
Projections of Sea Level Rise......Page 67
Sea Level Rise Is Associated with a Range of Impacts on Coastal Environments......Page 68
Science for Responding to Sea Level Rise......Page 69
FRESHWATER RESOURCES......Page 70
Snow Cover Is Decreasing......Page 71
Storm Patterns and Intensities May Change......Page 72
Climate Change May Increase Water Management Challenges......Page 73
ECOSYSTEMS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, AND BIODIVERSITY......Page 74
Future Climate Change Will Affect Land-Based Ecosystems in a Variety of Ways......Page 75
Climate Change Is Also Affecting Ocean Ecosystems......Page 77
The Oceans Are Becoming More Acidic, Which Poses  Major Risks for Ocean Ecosystems......Page 78
Ecosystems Play a Key Role in the Global Carbon Cycle......Page 79
Research Needs for Advancing Science on Ecosystems, Ecosystems  Services, and Biodiversity in the Context of Climate Change......Page 80
Agricultural Crops Will Be Infuenced in Multiple Ways by Climate Change......Page 81
Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture Are Less Well Understood......Page 82
Science for Adaptation in Agricultural Systems......Page 83
Modifying Food Production Systems Could Potentially Help  Limit the Magnitude of Future Climate Change......Page 84
Extreme Temperatures and Thermal Stress......Page 85
Infectious Diseases......Page 86
Research Needs for Advancing Science on Climate Change and Public Health......Page 87
Cities Play a Major Role in Driving Climate Change......Page 88
Adapting to Climate Change in Cities......Page 89
TRANSPORTATION15......Page 90
Limiting Transportation-Related Emissions......Page 91
Climate Change Can Affect Transportation Systems in a Number of Ways......Page 92
ENERGY SUPPLY AND USE......Page 93
Low-Carbon Fuels for Electricity Production......Page 94
Research on Adapting to Climate Change in the Energy Sector......Page 95
SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT......Page 96
Proposed Solar Radiation Management Approaches......Page 97
Ethical Issues......Page 99
NATIONAL AND HUMAN SECURITY......Page 100
International Relations and National Security......Page 101
Research Needs for Advancing Science on National and  Human Security Implications of Climate Change......Page 102
International Policies for Limiting the Magnitude and  Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change......Page 103
Dealing with Complex and Interacting Policies, Multilevel Governance, and Equity......Page 104
Research Needs Related to Climate Policy Development and Implementation......Page 105
COMPLEXITIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 106
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE RISKS......Page 110
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NATION’S CLIMATE RESEARCH ENTERPRISE......Page 112
4. Integrative Themes for Climate Change Research......Page 114
THEME 1: CLIMATE FORCINGS, FEEDBACKS, RESPONSES, AND THRESHOLDS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM......Page 115
Climate Variability and Abrupt Climate Change......Page 116
TABLE 4.1 Examples of Research Needs Related to Improving Fundamental......Page 117
The Atmosphere......Page 118
The Cryosphere......Page 119
The Oceans......Page 120
Ecosystems on Land......Page 121
The Carbon Cycle......Page 122
Interactions with Managed Systems and the Built Environment......Page 123
THEME 2: CLIMATE-RELATED HUMAN BEHAVIORS AND INSTITUTIONS......Page 124
How People Understand Climate Change and Climate Risks......Page 125
Institutions, Organizations, and Networks......Page 127
Environmentally Signifcant Consumption......Page 128
Human Drivers of Climate Change......Page 129
THEME 3: VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ANALYSES  OF COUPLED HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEMS......Page 130
Characteristics of Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses......Page 133
Challenges of Analyzing Vulnerability......Page 135
THEME 4: RESEARCH TO SUPPORT STRATEGIES FOR LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 137
TABLE 4.4 Examples of Research Needs Related to Limiting the Magnitude of Climate......Page 139
Developing New Technologies......Page 140
Institutions and Decision Making......Page 142
Geoengineering Approaches......Page 143
THEME 5: EFFECTIVE INFORMATION AND DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEMS......Page 144
Decision Processes......Page 145
Effective Decision-Support Systems......Page 146
THEME 6: INTEGRATED CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMS......Page 149
TABLE 4.6 Examples of Science Needs Related to Observations and Observing......Page 150
Ground-Based and In Situ Observations of the Earth System......Page 156
Observations of Human Systems......Page 157
Data Assimilation, Analysis, and Management......Page 159
Toward Integrated Observations and Earth System Analysis......Page 160
THEME 7: IMPROVED PROJECTIONS, ANALYSES, AND ASSESSMENTS......Page 161
TABLE 4.7 Examples of Science Needs Related to Improving Projections, Analyses,......Page 162
Climate Models......Page 163
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 165
Life-Cycle Assessment Methods4......Page 166
Environmental Beneft-Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses......Page 168
Policy-Oriented Heuristic Models......Page 169
Metrics and Indicators......Page 170
Certifcation Systems and Standards......Page 171
CHAPTER CONCLUSION......Page 172
Conclusion 2......Page 174
Climate Change Research Needs to Be Integrative and Interdisciplinary......Page 175
Climate Change Research Should Support Decision Making  at Local, Regional, National, and International Levels......Page 176
Climate Change Research Needs to Be a Flexible Enterprise,  Able to Respond to Changing Knowledge Needs and Support  Adaptive Risk Management and Iterative Decision Making......Page 177
SETTING PRIORITIES......Page 178
Priority-Setting Criteria......Page 179
INFRASTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM......Page 181
A Careful, Comprehensive Review Should Be Undertaken to Identify Current  and Planned Observational Assets and Identify Critical Climate Monitoring and  Measurement Needs......Page 182
A Comprehensive and Integrated Climate Observing System Should Be  Developed, Built, and Maintained by the Federal Program and Relevant National  and International Partners......Page 183
Enhanced Modelling Capabilities and Other Analytical Tools......Page 184
ORGANIZING THE RESEARCH......Page 185
Evaluation of the U.S. Global Change Research Program......Page 186
Needs for the Climate Change Research Program of the Future......Page 187
Improving the Relevance of the USGCRP to Decision Making......Page 189
Next Steps for the USGCRP......Page 190
Recommendation 5......Page 193
BROADER PARTNERSHIPS......Page 194
Limiting Climate Change......Page 196
Adapting to Climate Change......Page 198
Recommendation 6......Page 199
Challenges Posed by the New Era of Climate Change Research......Page 200
Challenges Posed by Linkages with Other Activities and Programs......Page 202
A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH......Page 203
Part II: Technical Chapters......Page 204
6. Changes in the Climate System......Page 206
The Greenhouse Effect......Page 207
Carbon Dioxide......Page 208
Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases......Page 212
Other Climate Forcing Agents......Page 219
Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity......Page 223
Natural Climate Variability......Page 224
Surface Temperature Measurements......Page 227
Surface Temperature Changes......Page 229
Atmospheric Temperatures......Page 231
Other Indicators of Climate Change......Page 235
Attribution of Observed Climate Change to Human Activities......Page 237
Climate Forcing Scenarios......Page 239
Climate Models......Page 241
Regional Climate Projections......Page 243
Projections of 21st-Century Climate......Page 244
Key Uncertainties in Projections of Future Climate......Page 248
Abrupt Changes and Other Climate Surprises......Page 250
RESEARCH NEEDS......Page 251
Continue to improve understanding of climate variability and its relationship to  climate change......Page 252
Improve understanding of climate system forcing, feedbacks, and sensitivity......Page 253
Improve model projections of future climate change......Page 255
Advance understanding of thresholds, abrupt changes, and other climate “surprises.”......Page 256
7. Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment......Page 258
Intrumental Records of Sea Level Rise......Page 259
Ocean Thermal Expansion......Page 261
Ice Sheets......Page 263
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE......Page 266
Regional Variability in Sea Level Rise......Page 268
Role of Ice Sheets in Producing Potential Climate Surprises......Page 269
IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE AND OTHER CLIMATE  CHANGES ON COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS......Page 270
RESPONDING TO SEA LEVEL RISE......Page 274
RESEARCH NEEDS......Page 275
Improve understanding of ocean dynamics and regional rates of sea level  rise......Page 276
Develop decision-support capabilities for all levels of governance......Page 277
Build capacity......Page 278
8. Freshwater Resources......Page 280
SENSITIVITY OF FRESHWATER RESOURCES TO CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 281
Precipitation: Frequency, Intensity, Storminess......Page 282
Snowpack, Glaciers, and Snowmelt......Page 284
Elements of the Terrestrial Water Cycle: Surface and Groundwater Resources......Page 285
Groundwater......Page 287
Drought......Page 288
MANAGING FRESHWATER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE......Page 289
Improved tools and approaches for decision making under uncertainty and  complexity......Page 290
Increase understanding of water institutions and governance, and design effec- tive systems for the future......Page 291
Evaluate effects of water resource use on climate......Page 292
9. Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity......Page 294
Impacts of Climate Change on Land-Based Ecosystems and Biodiversity......Page 296
Role of Land-Based Ecosystems in Driving Climate Change......Page 300
Science to Support Managing Terrestrial Ecosystems  to Limit the Magnitude of Climate Change......Page 302
MARINE ECOSYSTEMS......Page 303
Climate Change Impacts on Ocean Ecosystems......Page 304
Ocean Acidifcation......Page 308
The Role of Ocean Ecosystems in Managing Carbon and Climate Change......Page 310
Evaluate the climate feedbacks from changes in ecosystems and biodiversity.......Page 311
Assess the potential of land and ocean ecosystems to limit or buffer impacts of  climate change......Page 312
Improve observations and modeling......Page 313
10. Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production......Page 314
CROP PRODUCTION......Page 315
LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION......Page 319
Marine Fisheries......Page 320
Aquaculture and Freshwater Fisheries......Page 322
SCIENCE TO SUPPORT LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE BY MODIFYING AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY SYSTEMS......Page 323
SCIENCE TO SUPPORT ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS......Page 326
FOOD SECURITY......Page 328
Improve models of response of fsheries to climate change......Page 329
Assess food security and vulnerability in the context of climate change......Page 330
Develop and improve technologies, management and institutions to reduce GHG emissions .........Page 331
11. Public Health......Page 332
EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND THERMAL STRESS......Page 334
SEVERE WEATHER......Page 336
AIR QUALITY......Page 337
OTHER HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 340
PROTECTNG VULNERABLE POPULATIONS......Page 341
Systematically investigate current and projected health risks associated with climate change......Page 342
Evaluate and develop effective information, education, and outreach strategies......Page 343
12. Cities and the Built Environment......Page 346
ROLE OF CITIES IN DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 347
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CITIES......Page 349
SCIENCE TO SUPPORT LIMITING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 351
SCIENCE TO SUPPORT ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 352
RESEARCH NEEDS......Page 353
Developing and testing methods and approaches for limiting and adapting to  climate change in the urban context......Page 354
Developing effective decision-support tools......Page 355
13. Transportation......Page 356
ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 357
Reducing the Volume of Transport Activity......Page 359
Shifting Transportation Modes......Page 361
Reducing Energy Intensity......Page 363
Reducing the GHG Intensity of Transportation Fuels......Page 364
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TRANSPORTATION......Page 365
TABLE 13.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Transportation......Page 366
Improve understanding of how transportation contributes to climate change......Page 367
Continue efforts to improve energy effciency......Page 368
Advance understanding of how climate change will affect transportation systems .........Page 369
14. Energy Supply and Use......Page 372
ENERGY CONSUMPTION......Page 373
REDUCTIONS IN ENERGY DEMAND......Page 375
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS......Page 376
Fuel Switching......Page 377
Solar Energy......Page 378
Wind Energy......Page 381
Bioenergy......Page 382
Geothermal Energy......Page 384
Hydropower......Page 385
Nuclear Power......Page 387
Carbon Capture and Storage......Page 389
Direct Air Capture......Page 390
ENERGY CARRIERS, TRANSMISSION, AND STORAGE......Page 391
LIKELY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ENERGY SYSTEM OPERATIONS......Page 392
TABLE 14.1 Summary of Activities for Deploying New Energy Technologies......Page 393
TABLE 14.2: Summary of Major Barrriers to Deployment of New Energy Technologies......Page 395
SCIENCE TO SUPPORT ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 396
Research on development of analytical frameworks for evaluating trade-offs .........Page 397
Develop new integrated approaches that evaluate energy supply and use .........Page 398
15. Solar Radiation Management......Page 400
HISTORY OF SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT PROPOSALS......Page 401
Space-Based Options......Page 403
Cloud-Based Options......Page 404
POSSIBLE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES......Page 405
ETHICAL ISSUES......Page 407
Focus research attention on the potential consequences......Page 408
Develop and evaluate ... decision making about whether, when, and how to intentionally intervene......Page 409
Develop an integrated research effort .........Page 410
16. National and Human Security......Page 412
TABLE 16.1 A Summary of Recent Studies Related to National Security and Climate......Page 413
TABLE 16.1 Continued......Page 414
Military Operations......Page 415
International Relations......Page 417
TREATY VERIFICATION......Page 418
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND HUMAN SECURITY......Page 419
RESEARCH NEEDS......Page 421
Identifcation of potential human insecurity in response to climate change  impacts interacting with other social and environmental forces......Page 422
17. Designing, Implementing, and  Evaluating Climate Policies......Page 424
TYPES OF CLIMATE POLICIES AND AGREEMENTS......Page 425
TABLE 17.1: National Environmental Policy Instruments and Evaluative Criteria......Page 427
RESEARCH CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH POLICY  DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION......Page 429
Monitoring Compliance with Treaties Intended to Reduce Climate Change......Page 430
Assessing the Costs and Benefts of Climate Targets......Page 431
Introducing Realistic Complexity into Analyses of Climate Policy......Page 436
Coordinating Across Levels of Government......Page 438
Equity and Distributional Issues......Page 439
Continue to improve understanding of what leads to the adoption and implementation of international agreements......Page 440
Continue to improve methods for estimating costs, benefts, and cost  effectiveness......Page 441
Develop analytical approaches that examine and evaluate climate policy taking  into account its full range of effects .........Page 442
A......Page 444
B......Page 446
C......Page 450
D......Page 454
E......Page 457
F......Page 458
G......Page 461
H......Page 463
I......Page 466
J......Page 467
K......Page 468
L......Page 470
M......Page 473
N......Page 477
O......Page 481
P......Page 482
R......Page 484
S......Page 487
T......Page 491
U......Page 492
V......Page 493
W......Page 494
Y......Page 496
Z......Page 497
A: America’s Climate Choices: Membership Lists......Page 498
B: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Statement of Task......Page 502
C: Panel on Advancing the   Science of Climate Change:   Biographical Sketches......Page 504
D: Uncertainty Terminology......Page 514
TABLE D.1 Language Adopted by the IPCC to Describe Confdence......Page 515
E: The United States Global  Change Research Program......Page 516
F: Geoengineering Options to Respond to Climate Change: Steps to Establish a Research  Agenda......Page 520
G: Acronyms and Initialisms......Page 524