Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (America's Climate Choices)

Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 2
Copyright......Page 3
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES......Page 4
PANEL ON ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 6
Foreword: About America’s Climate Choices......Page 8
Preface......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Contents......Page 18
Summary......Page 22
FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THAT CALL FOR ADAPTATION......Page 23
OPTIONS FOR ADAPTING TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 24
DEVELOPING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES......Page 26
LINKING ADAPTATION EFFORTS ACROSS THE NATION......Page 31
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ADvANCES NEEDED TO SUPPORT ADAPTATION CHOICES......Page 33
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 34
Why Consider Adaptation Now?......Page 38
What Are the Risks?......Page 39
How Can We Adapt?......Page 41
What Are the Challenges and Opportunities?......Page 42
SCOPE AND PuRPOSE OF THE REPORT......Page 43
PRINCIPLES TO guIDE CLIMATE CHANgE ADAPTATION......Page 44
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT......Page 45
2. Vulnerabilities and Impacts......Page 50
PROJECTED U.S. CLIMATE CHANGES THAT COULD REQUIRE ADAPTIVE RESPONSES......Page 51
DETERMINING VULNERABILITIES TO PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES......Page 56
TABLE 2.1: Summary of regional climate-related impacts......Page 59
Climate Change Will Interact with Many Social and Environmental Stresses......Page 60
Climate Change Will Place Additional burdens on  Already Stressed Water Resources......Page 61
TAbLE 2.3: Highlights of water-related impacts by sector......Page 62
Climate Change Can Lead to Large Ecosystem Changes  When Impact Thresholds Are Crossed......Page 63
Crop and Livestock Production Will be Increasingly Challenged......Page 66
Threats to Human Health Will Increase......Page 67
Locations, Systems, and Populations Will be Affected by Climate  Change Responses As Well As by Climate Change Itself......Page 69
COMPARATIVE METRICS OF IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES......Page 71
MAJOR SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGES IN ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS  AND VULNERABILITIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR ADAPTATION......Page 75
ADAPTATION AND UNCERTAINTY......Page 79
CONCLUSIONS......Page 80
3. What Are America’s Options for Adaptation?......Page 82
TAbLE 3.1 Early adaption activities......Page 84
SECTORAL ADAPTATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANgE......Page 86
Ecosystems......Page 87
Agriculture and Forestry......Page 88
Water......Page 89
Health......Page 91
Transportation......Page 92
Energy......Page 94
Coastal Area vulnerabilities......Page 95
urgency of Climate Change Planning and Institutional  Readiness for Implementation......Page 97
Addressing Multiple Interacting Stresses and Time Scales of Response......Page 99
Avoiding Maladaptation and Foreclosure of Future Options......Page 101
Managing Adaptively: Learning from Experience......Page 103
CONCLUSIONS......Page 108
THE ADAPTATION CHALLENGE......Page 142
Political Impediments......Page 143
Institutional and Resource Limitations......Page 144
MANAGING THE RISK......Page 145
Identifying the Problems and Asking the Right Questions......Page 146
Assessing Risk......Page 147
Perceiving Risk......Page 148
Designing and Implementing Risk-Management Strategies......Page 149
DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE ADAPTATION STRATEGY......Page 151
Defining Objectives......Page 153
DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION PLAN......Page 155
Identifying Adaptation Options......Page 156
Comparing and Selecting Adaptation Options......Page 158
Adverse Impacts......Page 159
Timing of Impacts......Page 160
Methods for Comparing and Ranking Adaptations......Page 161
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis......Page 162
Benefit-Cost Analysis......Page 163
Risk Management......Page 164
Decision Analysis (Statistical Decision Theory)......Page 165
IMPEDIMENTS TO IMPLEMENTING ADAPTATION PLANS AND POLICIES......Page 166
Inadequate Institutional Support for Adaptation......Page 171
Behavioral Impediments......Page 172
LIMITS TO ADAPTATION......Page 173
RESEARCH AND DEvELOPMENT IN SUPPORT OF ADAPTATION......Page 174
CONCLUSIONS......Page 177
5. Linking Adaptation Efforts Across the Nation......Page 180
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY......Page 181
ROLES OF GOVERNMENTAL AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS......Page 183
Roles of Local governments......Page 184
Roles of States, Territories, and Commonwealths......Page 188
Roles of the Federal government......Page 191
Roles of Regional Institutions and boundary Organizations......Page 196
Roles of the Private Sector and Nongovernmental Organizations......Page 198
THE NEED FOR A COORDINATED NATIONAL APPROACH  TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION......Page 200
Existing Models for Multijurisdictional Coordination State and Local Hazard Mitigation Plans......Page 201
CONCLUSIONS......Page 202
6. Rationale and Mechanisms for Global Engagement in Climate Change Adaptation......Page 206
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN AN INTERNATIONAL CONTExT......Page 207
Global Equity Considerations......Page 209
U.S. National Security......Page 210
Transboundary Adaptation Challenges......Page 212
OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT IN GLOBAL ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES......Page 214
Opportunities for “Mainstreaming” Climate Change  Adaptation Activities into Existing U.S. Programs......Page 215
Considering the Role of the united States in Global Adaptation Activities......Page 219
CONCLUSIONS......Page 220
7. Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed  to Promote Effective Adaptation  to Climate Change......Page 224
Improved Information......Page 225
Improved Knowledge of behavioral Dimensions of Adaptation......Page 226
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES FOR ADAPTATION OPTION IDENTIFICATION AND DEvELOPMENT......Page 227
Water......Page 228
Health......Page 229
Coastal vulnerabilities......Page 230
Cross-Cutting Science and Technology Needs......Page 231
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES FOR ADAPTATION  MANAGEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION......Page 232
Areas for Science and Technology Advances......Page 233
Strengthening the Science and Technology base for Adaptation......Page 234
Possible guidelines......Page 235
Current Models to Illustrate Options......Page 236
CONCLUSIONS......Page 237
8. Conclusions and  Recommendations......Page 240
Recommendation 1: All decision makers—within national, state, tribal, and local  agencies and institutions, in the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations (NgOs)—should identify their vulnerabilities to climate change impacts and the short- and longer-term adaptation options that could increase their  resilience to current and projected impacts.......Page 241
OVERCOMING ADAPTATION CHALLENGES AND IMPEDIMENTS  REQUIRES A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY......Page 242
Recommendation 2: The executive branch of the federal government should initiate development of a collaborative national adaptation strategy, which might  take the form of a national adaptation plan. The strategy (or plan) should be developed in partnership with congressional leaders, selected high-level representatives of relevant federal agencies, states, tribes, business and environmental organizations, and local governments and community leaders.......Page 245
A NATIONAL PROGRAM SHOULD BE DEVELOPED TO IMPLEMENT THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGY......Page 246
Recommendation 3: Federal, state, and local governments, together with non- governmental partners, should work together to implement a national climate  change adaptation program pursuant to the national climate adaptation strat- egy. The program should:......Page 247
Recommendation 4: As part of an integrated climate change research initiative,  the federal government should undertake a signifcant climate change adaptation research effort designed to provide a reliable foundation for adapting to  the impacts of climate change in a larger context of sustainability. This initiative  should:......Page 249
Recommendation 6: Local governments should develop and implement climate change adaptation plans pursuant to the national climate adaptation strategy,......Page 250
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD PROMOTE ADAPTATION IN AN INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT......Page 251
Recommendation 9: Adaptation objectives should be incorporated into exist- ing u.S. government programs and policies that have international components,  such as (1) agriculture, trade policy, and food security; (2) energy policy; (3)  transportation policy; (4) international aid and disaster relief; (5) national secu- rity; and (6) intellectual property agreements for technology transfer to other  countries. EARLy OPPORTuNITIES FOR SuCCESS......Page 252
For Federal Programs......Page 253
For Selected Sectors......Page 254
B......Page 256
C......Page 257
E......Page 260
G......Page 261
I......Page 262
K......Page 263
M......Page 264
N......Page 265
O......Page 266
R......Page 267
S......Page 268
U......Page 269
W......Page 270
Z......Page 271
A: America’s Climate Choices: Membership Lists......Page 272
B: Panel on Adapting to the  Impacts of Climate Change:   Statement of Task......Page 276
C: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change: Biographical Sketches......Page 278
D: Explanation of the Rationale for  Reasons of Concern......Page 288
E: Acronyms and Initialisms......Page 292