Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Contents......Page 7
About the Editors and Authors......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 17
ECA Countries and Subregions......Page 19
Executive Summary......Page 21
Abbreviations......Page 23
Overview......Page 25
Climate Change—A Major Threat to Eastern Europe and Central Asia......Page 27
Vulnerability Will Be Dominated by Socioeconomic Factors and Legacy Issues......Page 30
Even Countries and Sectors that Could Benefit from Climate Change Are Poorly Positioned To Do So......Page 32
The Next Decade Offers a Window of Opportunity for ECA Countries......Page 33
Notes......Page 35
1. A Framework for Developing Adaptation Plans......Page 37
1.1 Conceptual Framework for Defining Vulnerability......Page 39
1.6 Impact of Natural Disasters in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 1990–2008......Page 46
Effective Adaptation Requires the Right Decision-Making Tools......Page 52
1.5 Tools to Help You: Tools Portfolio of the UK Climate Impact Program......Page 58
2. How ECA’s Climate Has Changed and Is Likely to Change Further......Page 61
2.1 Natural Disasters in Eastern Europe and Central Asia......Page 62
More Change Is Certain—the Question Is Where and How......Page 63
Climate Projections: How Is Eastern Europe and Central Asia Likely To Be Affected?......Page 64
Notes......Page 75
3. Human Health: The Most Basic Vulnerability......Page 77
Warmer and More Extreme Weather Brings New Threats and Exacerbates Others......Page 78
Vulnerability from Climate-Driven Migration: The Health Perspective......Page 84
Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritizing Protections......Page 88
4. Climate Change Will Make Water and Land Management More Complex......Page 93
More Difficult Water Resource Management—Too Much or Too Little of a Good Thing?......Page 94
More Stress on Already Stressed Coastal Areas......Page 98
Threats to Biodiversity Are Significant......Page 104
Notes......Page 112
5. The Unbuilt Environment: Agriculture and Forestry......Page 115
5.1 Agriculture Matters: Poverty and the Rural Economy in ECA......Page 117
Models Predict There Will Be Winners and Losers in ECA......Page 119
5.1 Current Agricultural and Other Land Use in ECA......Page 132
Potential Climate Change Winners Face Their Own Challenges......Page 137
Adaptation in the Productive Environment......Page 139
Notes......Page 140
6. The Built Environment: Cities, Water Systems, Energy, and Transport......Page 145
6.1 Roma, Already Marginalized, Are Particularly Vulnerable......Page 147
Water: Supplying All Human Activity Essential for Facing Multiple Pressures......Page 151
Energy-Sector Vulnerabilities: New Pressure to Overcome a Legacy of Inefficiency......Page 154
Transport: Taking On Another Increment of Challenge......Page 159
Notes......Page 161
7. Protection and Preparation: Disaster Risk Management and Weather Forecasting......Page 163
Softening the Blow When Disaster Strikes......Page 164
Understanding When Extreme Weather Is Coming......Page 170
Conclusion......Page 174
Notes......Page 175
References......Page 177
Index......Page 191
1.1 Standard Approaches for Understanding Risk and Developing an Adaptation Strategy......Page 49
1.2 Lessons on the Engagement of Stakeholders in Adaptation Plans—Urban Experiences......Page 51
Box 1.3 Adaptation in the Context of Development......Page 53
1.4 The World Bank’s Climate Portal......Page 57
2.1 General Circulation Models and Climate Downscaling......Page 65
2.2 The Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate in Eastern Europe and Central Asia......Page 67
3.1 With Every Flood, a Risk of Disease......Page 81
3.2 Adaptation Strategies for Floods and Heat Waves......Page 90
4.1 Placing More Emphasis on River Basin Management......Page 99
4.2 Bioclimatic Models......Page 108
5.1 Estimated Agronomic Impacts of Climate Change in ECA to 2050: A Summary......Page 121
5.2 Economic Agricultural Impact Models and Their Limitations......Page 130
6.2 Green Roofs to Manage Stormwater and Heat Waves......Page 150
Box 6.3 ECA Has the World’s Highest Carbon Intensity......Page 155
7.1 Poland’s Flood Disaster Leads to Stepped-Up Preparation......Page 173
1 ECA Countries Likely to Experience the Greatest Increases in Climate Extremes by the End of the 21st Century: Russia, Albania, and Turkey......Page 29
1.2 An Index of Exposure to Climate Change......Page 42
1.4 An Index of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change......Page 43
1.5 An Index of Vulnerability to Climate Change......Page 45
1.7 Global Warming: How Serious a Problem?......Page 47
3.1 How Migration Affects Health and Health Systems......Page 87
7.1 Economic Loss Potential of Catastrophic Events for ECA Countries......Page 167
2.1 Eastern Europe and Central Asia Subregions......Page 66
2.2 Projected Changes in Annual and Seasonal Temperature by Mid-Century......Page 68
2.3 Projected Changes in Annual and Seasonal Rainfall by Mid-Century......Page 70
2.4 Projected Changes in Consecutive Dry Days, Runoff, and Rainfall Intensity......Page 72
4.1 Changes in Annual River Runoff by 2041–60 Relative to 1900–70......Page 95
4.2 Shifting Boundaries and Degradation of Permafrost by Mid-Century......Page 105
4.3 Major Biomes and Ecoregions in ECA......Page 106
4.4 WWF Global 200 Priority Areas......Page 107
1.1 Applying the Vulnerability Framework to the Australian Cropping Industry......Page 41
1.2 Typology of Possible Adaptation Strategies......Page 54
Annex Table 2.1 General Climate Trends in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia Subregions......Page 74
3.1 A Rising Tide of Flooding Episodes......Page 79
3.2 Heat Waves Add to Illnesses......Page 82
3.3 Health Consequences of a Changing Climate: Direct and Indirect......Page 85
4.1 Water Resources of Central Asia: Suppliers of the Main Rivers......Page 97
4.2 Share of the Population Living in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones......Page 100
4.3 Categories of Adaptation Options......Page 109
4.4 Biomes, Areas of High Conservation Interest, and Adaptation Measures......Page 111
5.2 Crop Potential in the ECA Region Today and Possible Shifts by 2100......Page 120
5.3 ECA’s Potential Winners and Losers in Agriculture from Climate Change......Page 131
5.4 Characteristics of Current Agricultural Production in ECA......Page 133
Annex Table 5.1 Technological Adaptation Practices and Investments for Various Climate, Weather, and Agricultural Phenomena......Page 141
Annex Table 5.2 Institutions Critical for Adaptation......Page 142
Annex Table 5.3 Policies Critical for Adaptation......Page 144
6.1 Projected Refurbishment Needs Relative to Support Programs......Page 149
7.1 Reported Increased Incidence of Weather-Induced Disasters in ECA......Page 166