Across the boundaries : extrapolation in biology and social science

Contents......Page 10
1 Extrapolation and Heterogeneity......Page 16
2 Interventions, Causal Effects, and Causal Relevance......Page 24
2.1 Interventions......Page 25
2.2 Causal Effects......Page 29
2.3 Causal Relevance......Page 32
2.3.1 The Probability-Raising Definition......Page 33
2.3.2 Causal Relevance for Quantitative Variables......Page 35
2.3.3 Contextual Unanimity......Page 41
2.4 Conclusion......Page 42
3 Causal Structure and Mechanisms......Page 43
3.1 It’s Nice, but Is It Causality?......Page 44
3.2 Causality and Theoretical Terms......Page 46
3.3 Causal Structure......Page 50
3.4.1 What’s a Mechanism?......Page 52
3.4.2 Mechanisms, Modularity, and Evolvability......Page 55
3.5.1 What’s a Social Mechanism?......Page 60
3.5.2 Modularity and Social Mechanisms......Page 62
3.6 Conclusion......Page 66
4 The Disruption Principle......Page 67
4.1 HIV Replication......Page 68
4.2 Formulating the Principle......Page 71
4.3 Resistance to HIV Infection......Page 75
4.4.1 The Disruption Principle and the PCC......Page 79
4.4.2 Genetic Redundancy and the Faithfulness Condition......Page 81
4.5 Conclusion......Page 89
5 Extrapolation, Capacities, and Mechanisms......Page 91
5.1 Simple Induction......Page 93
5.2 Powers and Capacities......Page 95
5.3 Mechanisms-Based Extrapolation......Page 98
5.3.1 The Existing Literature on Mechanisms and Extrapolation......Page 99
5.3.2 Comparative Process Tracing......Page 101
5.4 Critiques of Animal Extrapolation......Page 105
5.4.1 No Relevant Difference......Page 106
5.4.2 The Extrapolator’s Circle......Page 107
5.4.3 HAM Versus CAM?......Page 109
5.5 Conclusion......Page 112
6 Ceteris Paribus and Extrapolation......Page 114
6.1.1 Comparative, Normative, and Definite......Page 115
6.1.2 The Completer Approach......Page 118
6.2 Extrapolating Probabilistic Causal Claims......Page 121
6.2.1 From Mechanisms to Causal Effects......Page 122
6.2.2 Consonance and Causal Relevance......Page 124
6.3.1 Extrapolation in Extant Accounts of Ceteris Paribus......Page 130
6.3.2 Completers and Inference Schemas......Page 132
6.4 Conclusion......Page 136
7 Reduction and Corrective Asymmetry......Page 138
7.1 Abstracting from the Gory Details......Page 139
7.2.1 Four Motives and Three Desiderata......Page 143
7.2.2 Reductionisms......Page 146
7.2.3 Corrective Asymmetry......Page 150
7.3.1 Core Principles of Pluralism......Page 153
7.3.2 Autonomy and Unification......Page 156
7.3.3 Autonomy and Causal Reality......Page 158
7.4 Conclusion......Page 161
8 Extrapolation in Social Science......Page 162
8.1 Guala on External Validity......Page 163
8.2 Are Social Mechanisms Causal Structure?......Page 166
8.2.1 Structure-Altering Interventions......Page 167
8.2.2 Anticipating Changes in Mechanisms......Page 170
8.3 Two Case Studies......Page 173
8.3.1 Extrapolation and Welfare Reform......Page 174
8.3.2 Conscientious Simple Induction......Page 178
8.3.3 Preference Reversals in the Real World......Page 182
8.4 Conclusion......Page 186
9 Social Mechanisms and Process Tracing......Page 187
9.1 Confounders and Instrumental Variables......Page 188
9.2 Mechanisms to the Rescue?......Page 194
9.2.1 Kincaid’s Objections......Page 195
9.2.2 The Positive and Negative Sides......Page 197
9.3.1 Direct Versus Indirect Causal Inference......Page 200
9.3.2 Objections Considered......Page 204
9.4 Conclusion......Page 209
10 Looking Back and Ahead......Page 211
Appendix......Page 216
Notes......Page 224
References......Page 234
C......Page 250
G......Page 251
M......Page 252
S......Page 253
Z......Page 254