A Modern Economic History of Emerging Markets (1950–2020): Dirigisme, Globalization and Disruption

Foreword
Preface: The Problem and the Answer
Acknowledgments
Praise for A Modern Economic History of Emerging Markets (1950–2020)
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Boxes
1 Introduction: EMEs in Long-Term Historical Perspective
	The Longue Durée: “Rest” Finally Catching Up with the “West”
		The “Fourth Wave”: The Pace
		The Fourth Wave: The Scale
		The Fourth Wave: The Scope
	The Global Echoes of Joseph Schumpeter
		Global Trade Integration
		Global Financial Integration and Deepening
		Global Economic Policy Convergence
			The Cold War and the Rise of Economic Dirigisme
			Globalization and the Rise of the Neo-liberal Paradigm
	Toward a Periodization of the Post-WWII Era
		The Age of Dirigisme (1950–1980)
		The Age of Crises (1980–2000)
		The Age of Globalization (2000–2020)
	The Impending “Age of Disruption”
		The Long Schumpeterian Cycle May Have Peaked, Once Again…
		The Big Structural Headwinds and the EMEs
		Climate Change: A Major Disruptive Force
		Demographic Stagnation: A Redistribution Problem
		Economic Exclusion and Inequality: The Ultimate Impasse
	Understanding Data Limitations
	The Book Outline
	Notes
	Works Cited
2 The Age of Dirigisme (1950–1980): Recovery, Catch Up, and Stagnation
	Introduction
	Progress on Common Grounds
	Progress on Different Paths
		The Capitalist World
			The Global Backdrop: Post-WWII Reform, Stabilization, and Recovery
			The Lineages of State-Led Industrialization Strategy
			Divergent Industrialization Paths: Facets of Economic Dirigisme Across LatAm and Asia
			Seeds of Instability: Structural Weaknesses and Policy Failures Across LatAm and Asia
		The Socialist Camp
			The Soviet Union: From Industrialization to Stagnation
			China: The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Model
	Conclusion
	Notes
	Works Cited
3 The Age of Crises (1980–2000): The Schumpeter Moment
	Introduction
	Spasms of the Global Economy
		The Tremors of the Capitalist World System
	The First Round: The 1980s LatAm Sovereign Debt Crises
	The Second Round: The 1990s Currency and Banking Crises
		The Precursor: Mexican “Tequila Crisis”
		In the Eye of the Storm: Asia 1997/1998
		The Aftershocks: Systemic Collapse in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina
	Conclusion
	Notes
	Works Cited
4 The Age of Globalization (2000–2020): The Dizzying Heights
	Introduction
	The Contours of Globalization: Institutions, Policy Frameworks, and Technology
		The Tides of Policy Reform and Stabilization
		The Tides of Trade Liberalization
			Global Trade: Institutional Realignment and Technological Innovation
			The Trade Boom: Manufacturers and the Commodity Producers
			External Surpluses, Reserve Accumulation, and Resilience
		The Tides of Rapid Financialization
	Weathering the GFC Storms
		Global Imbalances: EM Savings Fund DM Investment
		Policy Accommodation and Regulatory Easing
		Financial Innovation and Excess Leverage
	The GFC and the EMEs
		Weathering the Global Storms
		The Fed: The Global Lender of Last Resort
		China: The New Provider of Marginal Demand for the Global Economy
		The GFC Heritage and New Seeds of Instability
	Conclusion
	Notes
	Works Cited
5 The Age of Globalization (2000–2020): The Seeds of Instability
	Introduction
	Arrested Income Convergence
	Signs of a Maturing Cycle and the Predicament of the “Middle Income Trap”
	The Heritage of the GFC and the Covid Pandemic
		Too Much of a Good thing: Global liquidity and Policy Accommodation
	Too Much of a Bad Thing: The “Twin Leverage” Problem
	External Leverage: The Devil in the Detail
	Domestic Leverage: The Devil in the Big Picture
	Slumping productivity Growth and Growing Economic Inefficiency
	The Covid Pandemic: The Return of Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions
	Institutional Erosion: Liberal Reforms, in Reverse Gear
	Conclusion
	Notes
	Works Cited
6 The “Age of Disruption”: The Predicament of Sustainability
	Introduction
	Climate Change: The Predicament of (Un)Sustainability
		Global Climate Change: Fact, Not Mere Fiction
		Climate Change and the EMEs
		Mapping Out EME Climate Exposures and Vulnerabilities
	The Impending Demographic Paradigm Shift
	The Contours of Economic Exclusion and Inequality
		Economic Exclusion: Poverty and Unemployment
		Inequality: Income and Wealth Distribution
	Conclusion
	Notes
	Works Cited
7 Conclusion: From Globalization to Disruption
Index