21st Century Prometheus

Contents
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Introduction
	References
Part I: The Changing CBRN Risk Landscape
	The Twenty-first Century: The Epoch of Advanced Missile Systems and Growing Vulnerabilities
		1 The New Strategic Layer
			1.1 Boost-Phase Defence
		2 Hypersonic Missiles
			2.1 Hypersonic Cruise Missile
			2.2 Hypersonic Boost-Glide Vehicles
			2.3 Consequences for International Security and Strategic Stability Between U.S., China and Russia
		3 Nuclear-Powered Engine for Cruise Missiles and Torpedoes: Burevestnik and Status 6
		4 Expanding “ASAT States’ Club”
		5 Usable Nuclear Weapons: Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons
		6 A Brief Look at the Military Applications of AI
		7 Conclusions
		References
	The Dark Side of Nuclear Energy: Risks of Proliferation from Domestic Fuel Cycle Technologies
		1 Introduction
		2 The Dual Use Nature of Nuclear Energy
		3 Risks from the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technologies
		4 Impact of Other Technical Developments
		5 Supply and Demand for Nuclear Energy
		6 Policy Responses
		7 The Special Case of Iran
		8 Future Developments
		9 The Prospects for Systemic Solutions
		10 Conclusions
		References
	Chemical and Biological Risks in the Twenty-first Century
		1 Introduction
		2 Convergence at the Intersection of Chemistry, Biology and Technology
		3 Novel CB Agents
		4 Preventing the (Re)-acquisition of CB Weapons
		5 Old Versus New Technologies
		6 New Technologies for Risk Mitigation
		7 Conclusions
		References
	Neuroscience-Based Weapons
		1 Introduction
		2 Neuroscience Advances of Concern
		3 The International Biological and Chemical Prohibition Regime
		4 Responsible Science and Dual Use: Engaging the Neuroscience Community
		5 Conclusion: Strengthening the Chemical and Biological Prohibition Regime
		References
	Hybrid Emerging Threats and Information Warfare: The Story of the Cyber-AI Deception Machine
		1 Introduction
		2 Converging Technologies and Hybrid Emerging Threats
		3 The Deception Machine: Hybrid Cyber-AI Warfare
			3.1 Killing the Truth: Information Warfare in Syria
			3.2 Weaponizing the Truth: Hybrid Cyber-AI Adversarial Attacks
			3.3 Obscuring the Truth: Disinformation, Hate Speech and Election Interference
		4 A Future of Affective Computing and Neuromodulation
		5 The Rise of Hacktivism and Cyber Mercenaries
		6 Cyberattacks on Smart Critical Systems
		7 Drone Swarms, 3D-Printers and Urban Violence
		8 The Urgent Need for Foresight and Anticipatory Intelligence
		References
	Artificial Intelligence and Warfare
		1 Technology and Warfare
		2 Capabilities of Artificial Intelligence
			2.1 Automated vs. Autonomous
			2.2 Nuclear Deterrence Is Diminished by AI
			2.3 AI Device Swarms Will Undermine Traditional Defenses
			2.4 AI Hacks Computers and Creates Its Own Language
			2.5 Going From Servants to Predictive Consultants
		3 Commercial Markets for AI
		4 AI Competes with Funding for Traditional DOD Platforms
			4.1 The Debate About Killer Robots
			4.2 Moral Objections Delay AI Development for DOD
		5 AI in Russia and China
		6 The Emerging Arms Race for AI
		7 Cyber Vulnerabilities for AI
		8 Conclusion
		References
	Artificial Intelligence in Autonomous Weapon Systems
		1 Introduction
		2 Intelligence, Actuation and Human Role in Autonomy
			2.1 Artificial Intelligence Functionality
				2.1.1 AI Limitations, Risks, Adverse Effects
			2.2 From Decision Making to Action
			2.3 Human-Machine Relations in Autonomy
		3 AWS Cyber Vulnerabilities
		4 Artificial Intelligence Arms Race
		5 Principles of Humanity Versus Autonomous Lethal Force
		6 Future Challenges
		7 Conclusions
		References
	Understanding the Threat Posed by COTS Small UAVs Armed with CBR Payloads
		1 Overview
		2 COTS Small UAVs
		3 Conventional Munitions and Riot Control Agents Deployed from COTS Small UAVs
		4 Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Payloads
		5 CBR Agents: Physical Forms, Exposure Pathways, and Effects
		6 Acquisition of CBR Agents by Non-state Actors
		7 Potential Targets for CBR Attacks
		8 Barriers to a Successful CBR Attack by COTS Small UAVs
		9 Conclusions
		References
	Education and Training as a Disruptive Dual Use Technology
		1 Introduction
		2 Education and Training
		3 Case Histories
		4 Conclusions
		References
Part II: Evolving Risk Mitigation Strategies and Technologies
	Detection and Identification Technologies for CBRN Agents
		1 Introduction
		2 Chemical Detection/Identification Technologies
			2.1 Chromatography
			2.2 Colorimetric Detection
			2.3 Elemental Analysis
			2.4 Molecular Spectroscopy
			2.5 Sensors
			2.6 Ion Mobility Spectrometry Methods
			2.7 Mass Spectrometry (MS)
			2.8 Thermal analysis
		3 Biological Detection/Identification Technologies
			3.1 Key Concepts
			3.2 Biological Detection Methods and Equipment
		4 Mixed CB Agents
		5 Radiological/Nuclear Detection and Identification Technologies
		6 Explosives Detection/Identification Technologies
		7 Conclusions
		Annex I – Comparison of Various Detection Technologies
		References
	Chemical Forensics
		1 Introduction
		2 Current Procedures of the OPCW
		3 Forensic Evidence from the OPCW Inspections
		4 Techniques in Chemical Forensics
			4.1 Investigations of Synthetic Routes
				4.1.1 Impurity Profiling
				4.1.2 Side Product and Starting Material Analysis
			4.2 Current Analysis Techniques
				4.2.1 Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry
				4.2.2 Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry
				4.2.3 Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry
				4.2.4 Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy
				4.2.5 Infrared Spectroscopy
				4.2.6 Raman Spectroscopy
				4.2.7 Ion Chromatography
			4.3 Sampling and Sample Preparation
			4.4 Multivariate Statistical Analysis
		5 Conclusions and Future Considerations
		References
	Recent Developments in the Clinical Management of Weaponized
Nerve Agent Toxicity
		1 Introduction
		2 Nerve Agent Exposures
			2.1 Classic V and G Nerve Agents
			2.2 Novichok and Novel Organophosphates
			2.3 Unitary Agents vs Binary Agents
			2.4 Route of Exposures
			2.5 Pediatric Considerations (Exposure)
		3 Nerve Agent Toxicology
			3.1 Pharmacokinetics of Nerve Agents
			3.2 Cholinesterase Enzymes
			3.3 Mechanism of Action
			3.4 Enzymatic “Aging”
			3.5 Clinical Effects
			3.6 Diagnosis and Laboratory Findings
		4 Treatment Strategies
			4.1 Exposure Avoidance
			4.2 Decontamination Procedures
			4.3 Pretreatment
			4.4 Supportive Care
			4.5 Anticholinergics
			4.6 Oximes
			4.7 Benzodiazepines
			4.8 Scavengers
			4.9 Pediatric Considerations (Treatment)
			4.10 Possible Advances in Treatment
		5 Medical Resource Management
			5.1 Mass Poisonings and Resource Demanding Exposures
			5.2 Strategic Stockpiles
			5.3 Medication Alternatives
		6 Summary
		References
	Diagnosing the Cause of Disease: Interactive Teaching Approaches
		1 Introduction
		2 Interactive Teaching Resource
			2.1 The Approach
			2.2 Multiple Uses of Chemicals
		Annex 1: Diagnosing the Cause of Disease
			Rolling Scenario: Disease Outbreak
				Background Information
			Slide Deck: Differentiating the Cause of Disease
			Post-Course Hand-out
				Diagnosing the Cause of a Disease: Distinguishing Between a Natural and Deliberate Disease Outbreak
		Annex 2: Multiple Uses of Chemistry
			What is Legal?
		References
			Q fever and C. Burnetii
			Differentiating Between Natural and Deliberate Disease Outbreaks
			Unusual Disease Outbreaks
			Chemistry
	Evaluation Systems for Biological Security Risk Mitigation Training and Education
		1 Introduction
		2 Designing Evaluation
		3 Evaluation of Reaction
		4 Evaluation of Learning
		5 Evaluation of Behaviour
		6 Evaluation of Results
		7 Indicators, Metrics and Data
		8 Conclusions
		References
	Microbial Forensics: Detection and Characterization in the Twenty-first Century
		1 Introduction
		2 Anthrax Attacks in the United States
		3 Sequencing Techniques
		4 Metagenomics in Forensics
		5 Microbiomes in Forensic Inquiry
		6 Contamination, Endemism, and Background Noise
		7 Repositories and Databases
		8 Public Health and Microbial Forensics
		9 Synthetic DNA Attribution
		10 Conclusion: Gaps and Challenges
		References