World Energy Outlook 2018

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2018......Page 1
Foreword......Page 4
Acknowledgements......Page 6
Table of Contents......Page 15
Executive Summary......Page 38
Introduction......Page 44
Part A: Global Energy Trends......Page 48
Chapter 1: Overview and key findings......Page 50
Introduction......Page 52
1.1  Overview......Page 53
1.2  Primary energy demand by region......Page 55
1.3  Total final consumption and efficiency......Page 57
1.4  Power generation and energy supply......Page 59
1.5  Emissions......Page 61
1.6  Trade......Page 63
1.7  Investment......Page 65
1.8  Energy policy in a time of transitions......Page 67
1.9  How can policy makers enhance long-term energy security?......Page 78
Chapter 2: Energy and the Sustainable Development Goals......Page 96
Introduction......Page 98
2.1  Scenario design and overview......Page 99
2.2  Scenario outcomes: Universal energy access......Page 101
2.3  Scenario outcomes: Air pollution......Page 102
2.4  Scenario outcomes: CO2 and other GHG emissions......Page 103
2.5   Energy sector transformation in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 105
2.6  Investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 109
2.7  Tracking progress towards energy-related SDGs......Page 110
2.8  Boosting efforts to meet the energy-related SDGs......Page 122
2.9  Water-energy nexus and SDG 6......Page 136
Chapter 3: Outlook for oil......Page 148
Introduction......Page 150
3.1  Overview......Page 151
3.2  Oil demand by region......Page 153
3.3  Oil demand by sector......Page 155
3.4  Oil supply by type......Page 157
3.5  Oil supply by region......Page 159
3.6  Refining and oil product demand......Page 162
3.7  Trade......Page 164
3.8  Investment......Page 165
3.9  Will road transport remain the stronghold of oil demand?......Page 166
3.10  Crunching the numbers: are we heading for an oil supply shock?......Page 171
3.11  Oil product demand: where are the winners and losers, and what could be the unintended consequences?......Page 179
Chapter 4: Outlook for natural gas......Page 186
Introduction......Page 188
4.1  Natural gas overview by scenario......Page 189
4.2  Natural gas demand in the New Policies Scenario......Page 191
4.3  Natural gas production in the New Policies Scenario......Page 194
4.4  Trade and investment......Page 197
4.5  The future of gas demand in emerging Asian economies......Page 199
4.6  Exporter strategies in a changing gas market order......Page 208
4.7  Natural gas in Europe’s Energy Union......Page 214
Chapter 5: Outlook for coal......Page 230
Introduction......Page 232
5.1  Coal overview by scenario......Page 233
5.2  Coal demand by region and sector......Page 235
5.3  Coal production by region......Page 237
5.4  Trade......Page 239
5.5  Investment......Page 240
5.6  A role for coal in the transformation of the power sector?......Page 241
5.7  What are the prospects for the world’s coal exporters?......Page 248
Chapter 6: Energy efficiency and renewable energy......Page 258
Introduction......Page 260
6.1  Energy efficiency by scenario......Page 261
6.2  Renewables by scenario......Page 264
6.3  Energy efficiency policies and investments......Page 266
6.4  Renewables policies and investments......Page 268
6.5  Renewables support......Page 270
6.6  Tracking progress in meeting sustainable development goals......Page 271
6.7  Efficiency and use of renewables in the transport sector......Page 278
6.8  Buildings: a key component of the energy transition in Europe......Page 285
Part B: Special Focus on Electricity......Page 294
Chapter 7: Electricity today......Page 296
7.1  Introduction: electricity in the global energy system......Page 298
7.2  Electricity demand......Page 299
7.2.1  Electricity demand by region......Page 300
7.2.2  Electricity use by sector......Page 305
7.3.1  Recent market developments......Page 307
7.3.2  Renewable energy technology costs......Page 310
7.3.3  State of renewables integration......Page 313
7.4  Electricity flexibility......Page 316
7.4.1  Flexibility from power plants......Page 318
7.4.2  Demand-side response......Page 320
7.4.3  Storage......Page 321
7.4.4  Expanding and “smartening” electricity grids......Page 322
7.5.1  Recent investment trends......Page 324
7.5.2  Key players......Page 327
7.5.3  Securing investments......Page 330
7.6  Power sector emissions......Page 334
Chapter 8 : Outlook for electricity demand and supply......Page 338
8.2  Electricity demand in the New Policies Scenario......Page 340
8.2.1  Policies shape electricity demand......Page 341
8.2.2  Electricity demand by region......Page 343
8.2.3  What drives electricity growth and what holds it back?......Page 346
8.2.4  A closer look at electricity demand growth from end-uses......Page 349
8.3.1  Recent policy developments......Page 355
8.3.2  Electricity generation by region......Page 357
8.3.3  Power generation capacity by region......Page 359
8.3.4  Power generation technology costs, value and competitiveness......Page 364
8.3.5  Power sector emissions......Page 372
8.4.1  The need for flexibility will increase......Page 374
8.4.2  Grids provide and enable further flexibility......Page 377
8.4.3  Demand-side response: the sleeping giant of system flexibility......Page 378
8.4.4  Energy storage......Page 379
8.5.1  European Union......Page 382
8.5.2  India......Page 390
Chapter 9: Alternative electricity futures......Page 398
9.1  Introduction......Page 400
9.2.1  Overview of demand in the Future is Electric Scenario......Page 401
9.2.2  More electrified and digital homes and services......Page 405
9.2.3  Electrifying transport......Page 413
9.2.4  Electrifying industrial processes......Page 418
9.3.1  Higher electricity demand leads to more renewables and more fossil fuels......Page 423
9.3.2  Electrified does not necessarily mean sustainable......Page 427
9.4.1  Electricity demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 430
9.4.2  Electricity supply in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 435
9.5.1  Combined drivers of electrification, digitalization and variable renewables......Page 441
9.5.2  A smarter push for decarbonisation reveals vast amounts of flexibility in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 444
Chapter 10: Global implications of an electrifying future......Page 448
10.2 Electrifying the global energy sector – is it the start ofsomething new?......Page 450
10.3 Achieving environmental goals through electricity......Page 457
10.4 Energy security and investment in an electrifyingfuture......Page 464
10.4.1 Energy security in an electrifying world......Page 465
10.4.2 Electricity security in a changing world......Page 468
10.5 Affordability of electricity......Page 483
PART C: WEO insight......Page 490
Chapter 11: Innovation and the environmentalperformance of oil and gas supply......Page 492
11.1 Introduction......Page 494
11.2 Energy use and emissions from the oil and gas industry......Page 495
11.2.1 Oil......Page 497
11.2.2 Gas......Page 502
11.2.3 Summary of indirect oil and gas GHG emissions......Page 505
11.3 Indirect emissions in the New Policies Scenario......Page 506
11.4.1 Tackling methane emissions......Page 508
11.4.2 Electrification of operations......Page 509
11.4.3 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage......Page 514
11.4.4 Enhanced oil recovery using CO2......Page 517
11.4.5 Hydrogen as an alternative fuel......Page 521
11.5.1 Policy options to encourage emissions reductions in oil and gas......Page 526
11.5.2 Bending the indirect emissions curve......Page 528
ANNEXES......Page 530
Annex A: Tables for scenario projections......Page 532
Annex B: Design of the scenarios......Page 612
Annex C: Definitions......Page 632
Annex D: References......Page 648