World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development

Contents......Page 7
Foreword......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 15
Glossary......Page 17
Methodological Note......Page 21
Abbreviations and Data Notes......Page 25
Preamble......Page 29
21st-century conflict and violence are a development problem that does not fit the 20th-century mold......Page 30
Vicious cycles of conflict: When security, justice, and employment stresses meet weak institutions......Page 34
Restoring confidence and transforming the institutions that provide citizen security, justice, and jobs......Page 36
Practical policy and program tools for country actors......Page 44
Part 3: Reducing the Risks of Violence—Directions for International Policy......Page 51
Track 1: Providing specialized assistance for prevention through citizen security, justice, and jobs......Page 56
Track 2: Transforming procedures and risk and results management in international agencies......Page 59
Track 3: Acting regionally and globally to reduce external stresses on fragile states......Page 62
Track 4: Marshaling support from lower-, middle-, and higher-income countries and global and regional institutions to reflect the changing landscape of international policy and assistance......Page 63
Notes......Page 67
WDR Framework and Structure......Page 73
Part 1: The Challenge......Page 77
Interstate and civil wars have declined since peaking in the early 1990s......Page 79
1.1 Gangs and trafficking are global concerns......Page 81
1.2 Countries often relapse into conflict......Page 86
Repeated violence is a shared challenge......Page 94
Notes......Page 96
Multiple stresses raise the risks of violence......Page 101
The vicious cycle of weak institutional legitimacy and violence......Page 112
Notes......Page 121
Part 2: Lessons from National and International Responses......Page 125
Why transforming institutions is so difficult......Page 127
3.1 WDR Framework: Repeated cycles of action to bolster institutional resilience......Page 131
Do not expect too much, too soon......Page 136
3.7 Optimism or wishful thinking?......Page 138
Notes......Page 144
Drawing on lessons from national reformers......Page 147
Inclusive-enough coalitions......Page 148
4.4 Pakistan: Using the budget to signal change......Page 156
Notes......Page 167
Pacing and sequencing institutional transformation......Page 173
5.3 Coordinated political, security, and development responses to violence—Lessons from urban, subnational, and organized criminal violence in Latin America......Page 176
5.5 Reform of the Haiti police force, even in difficult circumstances......Page 181
Jobs......Page 185
What to do systematically but gradually......Page 192
Institutional transformation as a continuous process......Page 197
Notes......Page 202
The evolving international architecture......Page 209
Building confidence......Page 213
Supporting institutional transformation......Page 221
Dual accountability and managing the risks of action......Page 228
Lessons of international engagement......Page 233
6.10 Uneven international support to violence prevention and recovery in West Africa......Page 236
7 International action to mitigate external stresses......Page 245
External security stresses......Page 246
External economic stresses......Page 254
7.7 The Australian Crime Commission’s high-risk money movement strategy......Page 257
Between the global and the national: Regional stresses, regional support......Page 261
Notes......Page 268
Part 3: Practical Options and Recommendations......Page 273
Basic principles and country-specific frameworks for sustained violence prevention and recovery......Page 275
Practical approaches to confidence-building......Page 278
Program approaches to link early results to transforming institutions......Page 283
8.3 Anti-corruption approaches in Liberia and Mozambique......Page 290
8.5 Phasing the transition from international humanitarian aid to local institutions: Afghanistan and Timor-Leste......Page 294
9 New directions for international support......Page 297
Track 1: Preventing repeated cycles of violence by investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs......Page 298
Track 2: Reforming internal agency procedures......Page 304
9.2 Flexible peacekeeping arrangements......Page 309
Track 4: Marshaling support from lower-, middle-, and higher-income countries and from global and regional institutions......Page 314
A continuing global learning platform......Page 316
Notes......Page 319
Bibliographical Note......Page 323
References......Page 325
Selected Indicators......Page 363
Selected World Development Indicators......Page 369
Index......Page 393
1.1 Interstate and civil war—1900 to the present......Page 80
Trafficking and violence during conflicts in West Africa, 1990–2009......Page 84
1.3 Violent crime and insecurity exact high economic costs......Page 93
2.1 Economic and political theories of violence and this Report......Page 103
2.2 The stress posed by transnational organized crime and drug trafficking......Page 104
Cross-border political violence spreads across Central Africa......Page 105
2.4 External stresses: The deportation of the maras......Page 106
2.5 Does unemployment cause violence? Arguments for and against......Page 107
2.6 Do similar economic factors create risks for political conflict and extreme levels of violent organized crime?......Page 108
2.8 Human rights abuses and future conflict risk......Page 110
2.9 Quantitative research on institutions and violence risk......Page 113
2.10 Fragility, weak institutions, governance, and violence......Page 115
3.1 Unrealistic expectations in fragile states are hurdles to progress......Page 128
3.2 Premature load-bearing......Page 129
3.3 Violence can increase during fast institutional transformations......Page 130
3.4 The WDR framework and theories of violence prevention......Page 133
3.5 “Best-fit” reforms......Page 135
3.6 Fragile states and the long time to acquire threshold institutional capability......Page 137
3.8 Spectrum of situation-specific challenges and opportunities......Page 139
3.9 Lessons of the South African transition: Restoring confidence and transforming institutions......Page 143
4.1 “All politics is local.”......Page 150
4.2 Gang-related homicides in Los Angeles......Page 151
4.3 Signals and commitments for economic management: GEMAP in Liberia......Page 154
4.5 Building early confidence in Haiti—Challenges and reflections......Page 157
4.6 Only a few visible results are needed to restore confidence: Examples from civil war, organized criminal, and subnational violence......Page 158
4.7 Different sectors, core goals......Page 160
4.8 Community-driven development strengthens state-society relations in Afghanistan......Page 161
4.9 Nepal: Bringing others in—supplementing government capacity in education......Page 163
4.10 Nigeria: Strengths and risks of nongovernment capacity in the security sector—the Bakassi Boys......Page 164
5.1 China’s approach to gradually piloting economic reform......Page 174
5.2 It takes time to build institutions. First things first—citizen security, justice, and jobs......Page 175
5.4 Colombia’s establishment of civilian oversight and the Democratic Security Policy......Page 178
5.6 Innovative court solutions in Latin America......Page 183
5.7 Experiences in countering corruption......Page 186
5.8 Value chain development in Kosovo and Rwanda......Page 187
5.9 Technically less than perfect, but robust to circumstances: Best-fit electricity provision in Lebanon......Page 188
5.10 Economic empowerment of women: Women’s Empowerment Program in Nepal......Page 191
5.11 Pacing institutional transformation......Page 193
5.12 Devolution and decentralization can help manage conflict, but are better done gradually......Page 195
5.13 Development approaches can empower women in the most fragile environments......Page 198
6.1 The benefits of international support: Mozambique......Page 210
6.2 Investing in long-term mediation as a cost-effective approach to preventing and responding to violence......Page 215
6.3 Heading off escalation: Dialogue and compromise in Ghana in 2003–04......Page 217
6.4 International-national institutional partnerships—CICIG in Guatemala......Page 218
6.5 Quick action? Ghana helps restore electricity in Liberia......Page 219
6.6 The Aga Khan Development Network: Local knowledge, longevity, realistic expectations......Page 222
6.7 Stop-go aid: Volatility in selected fragile states......Page 223
6.8 Publishing cost estimates as best practice? Trade-offs between transparency and collusion......Page 226
6.9 Multidonor trust funds: Afghanistan and Southern Sudan......Page 231
7.1 The Multi-Country Demobilization and Reintegration Program: Addressing regional violence......Page 247
7.2 The Kimberley Process for “conflict diamonds”......Page 249
7.3 The economics of cocaine trafficking......Page 250
The current (fragmented) state of international cooperation against drugs in the Americas......Page 251
7.5 Expert viewpoints: For and against regulated drug legalization to reduce violence......Page 252
7.6 Partnering with client countries to curb corruption in World Bank–funded projects......Page 255
7.8 Growing regional and global approaches to food insecurity......Page 258
7.9 Global approaches to land......Page 260
7.10 The role of regional institutions and initiatives in normsetting and violence prevention......Page 262
7.2 Shared administration can help fragile and conflict-affected states provide better quality public services......Page 264
7.12 Early European measures to create shared economic interests in peace......Page 265
8.1 Confidence-building in South Africa, 1990–94, and Colombia, 2002 onward......Page 282
8.2 Adapting community-level program design to country context: Afghanistan, Burundi, Cambodia, Colombia, Indonesia, Nepal, and Rwanda......Page 289
8.4 Bilateral cooperation against corruption and money laundering in Haiti and Nigeria......Page 292
9.1 Preventing violence: Prioritizing investment in citizen security and justice reforms......Page 301
9.3 Preventing violence: Prioritizing investment in citizen security and justice reforms......Page 310
9.4 The role of regional institutions and initiatives in normsetting and violence prevention......Page 317
F1.1 Violence often recurs......Page 31
F2.2 What drives people to join rebel movement and gangs?......Page 37
3 Country experiences of confidence-building and transforming institutions for citizen security, justice, and jobs......Page 42
4 Core tools......Page 45
5 Adapting community-level program design to country context......Page 52
F6.3 Stop-go aid: Volatility in selected fragile states......Page 55
7 Internal agency reform......Page 60
8 Regional initiatives and norms and standards......Page 66
1 The interlinked and evolving nature of modern organized violence......Page 95
2 Nepal: Stresses, institutions, violence, and legitimacy......Page 118
3 Restoring security in Colombia......Page 141
4 Indonesia: Restoring confidence in Aceh......Page 165
5 Violence in Central America—Depth of institutional transformation matters......Page 200
6 A tale of two assistance programs—Liberia and Guinea-Bissau......Page 234
7 Central Asia: External pressures and external assistance......Page 266
F1.3 The gap in poverty is widening between countries affected by violence and others......Page 32
2.1 Moving from fragility and violence to institutional resilience in citizen security, justice, and jobs......Page 40
3.1 The dual accountability dilemma for donors engaged in fragile and conflict environments......Page 54
3.2 Combined action across the security, development, and humanitarian spheres for external actors to support national institutional transformations......Page 57
1.2 Victims of terrorism......Page 83
1.4 Violence creates suffering for families in myriad ways: Responses to survey on experiences of violence on immediate family member in last three years......Page 87
1.5 Widening gap in poverty between countries affected by violence and those not experiencing violence......Page 88
1.6 Violence is the main constraint to meeting the MDGs......Page 90
1.7 The widening gap in infant mortality rates between countries affected by violence and others......Page 91
1.8 Effects of violence on growth are dramatic and longlasting......Page 92
2.1 What drives people to join ideological militant movements......Page 111
2.2 Food price protests and associated violence are concentrated in fragile states......Page 114
2.3 The vicious cycle of violence, elite pacts, weak institutions—and vulnerability to repeated violence......Page 117
6.1 Uneven international support in West Africa—Post-conflict trumps prevention......Page 212
6.2 International support to nation-states—The dual accountability dilemma......Page 229
9.1 Adapting the modality of assistance to risk......Page 306
2 Officer-level entry into Nepal government service by caste/ethnic group (percentages)......Page 119
7.1 Water availability, fragility, and the potential for riparian conflict in Africa......Page 259
7.2 Sub-Saharan Africa’s regional infrastructure challenge in fragile states......Page 263
1.1 Security, economic, and political stresses......Page 35
2.1 Fastest progress in institutional transformation—An estimate of realistic ranges......Page 39
1.1 Country case examples of multiple forms of violence......Page 82
1.3 The gender-disaggregated impacts of violent conflict......Page 89
2.1 Security, economic, and political stresses......Page 102
3 Nepal’s multiple forms of violence, 1960–present......Page 120
7.1 To defeat trafficking in commodities, pay attention to physical and market characteristics of the products......Page 248
8.1 Situation-specific challenge and opportunities......Page 277
8.2 Core tools for restoring confidence......Page 279
9.1 International tools to link confidence-building and institutional transformation across the political, security, development, and humanitarian spheres......Page 300
9.2 Compelling and feasible short-term indicators......Page 307