Western Intelligence and the Collapse of the Soviet Union: 1980-1990: Ten Years that did not Shake the World

Book Cover......Page 1
Half-Title......Page 2
Title......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Contents......Page 5
Preface......Page 6
Acknowledgments......Page 9
Introduction......Page 10
THE IMPACT OF THE NUCLEAR FEAR ON INTELLIGENCE......Page 14
NUCLEAR POWER IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR......Page 20
THE NUCLEAR RACE BEGINS: THE WAR IN KOREA......Page 25
CUBA......Page 30
VIETNAM......Page 35
THE BIOLOGICAL-CHEMICAL ARMS RACE AND OTHER FORMS OF INSANITY......Page 41
EUROPE, NATO AND THE MIDDLE EAST: THE DANGER OF NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION?......Page 45
JILIN PHENOMENON AS A SYMPTOM OF AN INSANE WORLD......Page 49
AFGHANISTAN 1: THE TURNING POINT......Page 54
THE RED ARMY’S CONVENTIONAL OPERATIONAL ABILITY......Page 61
EUROPE: THE WESTERN THREAT, AS REFLECTED IN WARSAW PACT FILES......Page 68
CAN A NUCLEAR WAR BE WON?......Page 70
CASEY AND THE DEFINITION OF INTERNATIONAL TERROR......Page 72
INTERNATIONAL TERROR AS DEFINED BY LEONOV AND THE KGB......Page 77
THE THIRD WORLD: WHAT THE STRUGGLE WAS ABOUT......Page 88
THE MIDDLE EAST: ISRAEL, EGYPT, SYRIA AND LEBANON......Page 90
ROLLING THEM BACK......Page 93
TO GET THEM OUT OF AFGHANISTAN......Page 95
IRAN......Page 101
GRENADA......Page 103
EL SALVADOR......Page 106
CUBA......Page 108
AFRICA......Page 112
ANGOLA......Page 113
THE HORN OF AFRICA......Page 115
THE THIRD WORLD: A SUMMARY......Page 118
AMERICAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE......Page 125
FRANCE......Page 132
THE UNITED KINGDOM......Page 138
GERMANY......Page 142
ITALY......Page 144
THE WAR OF THE HOLY SEES......Page 146
HARPING ON THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT......Page 149
POLITICIANS, INTELLIGENCE, MEDIA AND ELECTED OFFICIALS......Page 151
DETENTE......Page 154
REAGAN’S ADMINISTRATION GETS ORGANIZED......Page 157
CASEY AND THE CIA......Page 159
CASEY VERSUS THE USSR......Page 161
THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX; OR THE DRAGON, THE STEALTH BOMBER AND THE F-22......Page 165
STAR WARS......Page 171
I WAS SURPRISED......Page 182
SURPRISE IN EUROPE TOO......Page 184
THE SIGNS OF CRISIS DURING GORBACHEV’S TENURE......Page 187
INTERNAL WEAKNESS AND FOREIGN POLICY......Page 189
THE LIBERATION OF EASTERN EUROPE......Page 192
THE NATIONALITY PROBLEM IN THE USSR......Page 195
THE MILITARY THREAT AND THE RED ARMY’S PERFORMANCE......Page 198
THE SOVIET UNION: A THIRD WORLD ECONOMY?......Page 203
THE COLLAPSE......Page 206
FEAR, BRUTALITY, TRAUMA......Page 212
INFORMATION GATHERING FAILURE, ASSESSMENT FAILURE—OR BOTH?......Page 217
AFGHANISTAN 2: THE THIN LINE BETWEEN DATA ASSESSMENT AND INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS......Page 219
THE “CONCEPTION”......Page 221
NATIONAL EVALUATION: NEITHER NATIONAL NOR EVALUATION......Page 224
THE CIA’S FAILURE......Page 229
OVERESTIMATION OF SOVIET ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE......Page 233
THE ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST GORBACHEV......Page 236
EXAGGERATION OF MILITARY POWER—THE SOVIET THREAT......Page 238
WHAT ABOUT THE BASICS?......Page 243
GORBACHEV’S FUTURE AND THAT OF THE SOVIET UNION......Page 245
WAS THERE AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE?......Page 246
OTHER WESTERN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES......Page 249
THE NATIONAL INTELIGENCE ESTIMATE (NIE)......Page 252
THE PRESIDENTIAL PAPER......Page 255
OTHER PAPERS......Page 257
THE ATTITUDE TOWARD INTELLIGENCE AND ITS PRODUCTS......Page 258
THE KREMLIN DID NOT BELIEVE IN INTELLIGENCE EITHER......Page 259
POLITICIZATION OF INTELLIGENCE......Page 263
INTELLIGENCE AND POLITICS......Page 268
WHAT DID THEY THINK IN EUROPE?......Page 273
THE STRUGGLE INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION OVER SOVIET INTENTIONS......Page 275
REAGAN’S CHANGE OF HEART......Page 280
GEORGE BUSH IN MOSCOW AND IN THE WHITE HOUSE......Page 282
INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES......Page 286
AFTER THE COLLAPSE: DEVALUATION OF THE STATUS OF STRATEGIC POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE?......Page 291
INTELLIGENCE FAILURE? THE CIA HAS NEVER HEARD OF IT......Page 292
INTELLIGENCE IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION......Page 294
THE NEW TERROR......Page 297
INTELLIGENCE AFTER 11 SEPTEMBER......Page 311
Appendix A GLOSSARY......Page 314
Appendix B LIST OF INTERVIEWEES......Page 317
BOOKS......Page 320
ARTICLES......Page 322
LECTURES......Page 323
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY—DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE......Page 324
US CONGRESS......Page 325
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE......Page 326
Index......Page 327