Understanding the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Contents
Preface
Chapter 1
Coronaviruses: Understanding the Spread of Infectious Diseases and Mobilizing Innovative Solutions(
	Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Hearing Charter, Coronaviruses: Understanding the Spread of Infectious Diseases and Mobilizing  Innovative Solutions
		Purpose
		Witnesses
		Key Questions
		Background
		Global Effects of COVID-19
		COVID-19: A Rapidly Evolving Situation
		Using Technology to Detect, Predict, and  Understand the Spread of Infectious Diseases
		Halting the Spread of Misinformation around  Infectious Disease Outbreaks
		Investments in Research and Development to Prevent and Respond to Outbreaks
	Testimony of Suzan Murray, Program Director, Smithsonian Global Health Program, Smithsonian’s National Zoo  and Conservation Biology Institute
	Smithsonian Institution, Written Testimony of Dr. Suzan Murray, DVM, DACZM, Director, Smithsonian Global Health Program, Smithsonian National Zoological Park and Conservation Biology Institute, Beyond Coronavirus: Understanding the Spread of Infectiou...
	Testimony of John Brownstein, Chief Innovation Officer, Boston Children’s Hospital and Professor, Harvard Medical School
	Written Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science,  Space and Technology, Hearing Entitled:  “Beyond Coronaviruses: Understanding  the Spread of Infectious Diseases and  Mobilizing Innovative Solutions”
	Short Bio
	Testimony of Peter Hotez, Professor and Dean, National School of Tropical Medicine,  Baylor College of Medicine, and Co-Director, Texas Children’s Hospital Center  for Vaccine Development
	Testimony of Peter Hotez, MD, PhD; Professor and Dean, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine Co-Director,  Texas Children’s Hospital for Vaccine Development, Texas Children’s Hospital Endowed Chair in Tropical Pediatrics,  b...
		Beyond Coronaviruses: Understanding the Spread of Infectious Diseases and Mobilizing Innovative Solutions
	Testimony of Tara Kirk Sell, Senior Scholar, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security,  and Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
	United States House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, Testimony of Tara Kirk Sell, PhD Senior Scholar, Center for Health Security, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,  March 5, 2020
		Crowd Forecasting Using the Disease Prediction Platform
		Misinformation during Infectious Disease Outbreaks
		Supporting Research
		Recommendations
		Conclusion
		Biography for Tara Kirk Sell, PhD
	Appendix I: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions
		Responses by Dr. Suzan Murray
			Submitted by: Representative Bill Foster (IL-11)
			Submitted by: Representative Paul Tonka (NY-20)
			Submitted by: Representative Troy Balderson (OH-12)
		Responses by Dr. John Brownstein
			Submitted by Representative Ami Bera (CA-07)
				On the Technology
				On the Implementation
			Submitted by Representative Bill Foster (IL-11)
			Submitted by: Representative Jerry McNerney (CA-09)
			Submitted by Representative Haley Stevens (MI-11)
			Submitted by Representative Troy Balderson (OH-12)
		Responses by Dr. Peter Hotez
		Responses by Dr. Tara Kirk Sell
	Appendix II: Additional Material for  the Record
	The Coronavirus Crisis: Fake Facts  Are Flying About Coronavirus. Now There's  A Plan To Debunk Them
		Updated on March 9th at Noon EST
		The Coronavirus Outbreak
			What You Should Know
		More Stories from NPR
	The Washington Post: Coronavirus Rumors and Chaos in Alabama Point to Big Problems as U.S. Seeks to Contain Virus
	Fears of the COVID-19 Coronavirus Provide More Opportunity for Misinformation About ‘Miracle Cures’
	Argonne National Laboratory
Chapter 2
Infectious Disease Modeling: Opportunities to Improve Coordination and  Ensure Reproducibility(
	Abbreviations
	Why GAO Did This Study
	What GAO Recommends
	What GAO Found
	Background
		Public Health Agency Roles in Infectious Disease Outbreaks  and Response
		Infectious Disease Outbreaks
			Ebola
			Zika
			Pandemic Influenza
		Infectious Disease Models
	HHS Has Used Infectious Disease Models  to Help Inform Policy and Planning
		Use of Models to Inform Planning and Policy Decisions
		Use of Models to Inform Resource Allocation Decisions
	Agencies Coordinate Infectious Disease Modeling Efforts but Do Not Fully Monitor, Evaluate, and Report on Coordination
		HHS Agencies Coordinate Infectious Disease Modeling Efforts in Multiple Ways
		HHS Agencies Do Not Fully Monitor, Evaluate,  and Report on Coordination Efforts
	CDC and ASPR Generally Followed Identified Practices for Infectious Disease Modeling, but CDC Has Not Fully Ensured Model Reproducibility
		CDC and ASPR Generally Followed Identified Modeling Practices but Did Not Always Fully Assess Model Performance
			Communication between Modeler and Decision Maker
			Description of the Model
			Verification
			Validation
			Agency Modelers Follow a Variety of Approaches to Modeling
			CDC Has Not Fully Implemented a Policy to Ensure  Model Reproducibility
	Modelers Faced Several Challenges  and Have Worked to Address Them
		Data Challenges
		Resource­Related Challenges
		Communication Challenges
	Conclusion
	Recommendations for Executive Action
	Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
	Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
		HHS Use of Models to Inform Policy, Planning, and Resource Allocation Decisions
		HHS Coordination of Modeling Efforts
		Developing Infectious Disease Models and Assessing  Their Performance
		Challenges to Effective Modeling
	Appendix II: Bibliography of Selected Model Publications Reviewed
		Ebola Models
		Zika Models
		Influenza Models
	Appendix III: Ten Selected Infectious  Disease Models and Questions from Data Collection Instrument
	Data Collection Instrument
		GAO Review of Model Assessment Steps for  Selected Agency Models
			Purpose
			Instructions
	Assessment Element
		Clarify Objectives
		Model Description
		Model Verification (Internal Validation, Internal Consistency, Technical Validity)
		Model Validation
		Communication
			Assessment Steps Question
	Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Health and Human Services
	Appendix V: Accessible Data
		Data Tables
Index
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