Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
Acknowledgments......Page 15
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION......Page 17
FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING......Page 19
WHY STUDY FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING?......Page 21
THE RATIONAL AND COGNITIVE SCHOOLS......Page 23
COMPARATIVE FOREIGN POLICY......Page 25
PLAN OF THE BOOK......Page 26
PART TWO: THE DECISION ENVIRONMENT......Page 29
TYPES OF DECISIONS......Page 31
Unilateral, Negotiated, Structured, and Unstructured Decisions......Page 32
Trade-offs in Decision Making......Page 33
Individual-Level Decisions......Page 34
Group-level Decisions......Page 35
Coalition Decision Making......Page 36
CASE STUDY: ISRAEL'S FOREIGN POLICY MAKING BY COALITION......Page 37
ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF COALITION DECISION MAKING: ICELAND'S COD WAR, 1971–1974......Page 39
Time Constraints......Page 41
Information Constraints......Page 42
Dynamic Setting......Page 43
Stress......Page 44
Accountability......Page 46
THE ROLE OF ADVISORY GROUPS......Page 47
INFORMATION SEARCH PATTERNS......Page 48
Alternative-Based versus Dimension-Based Search......Page 49
Compensatory versus Noncompensatory Rule......Page 50
Conjunctive Decision Rule (CON)......Page 51
Lexicographic (LEX) Decision Rule......Page 52
CONCLUSION......Page 53
3 Biases in Decision Making......Page 54
CASE STUDY: THE U.S. DECISION TO INVADE IRAQ IN 2003 – THE EFFECT OF COGNITIVE BIASES ON FOREIGN POLICY MAKING......Page 57
GROUPTHINK......Page 60
Groupthink in American Foreign Policy......Page 61
BEYOND GROUPTHINK......Page 63
Groupthink and Multiple Advocacy......Page 64
POLYTHINK......Page 65
CASE STUDY: POLYTHINK AT CAMP DAVID, 2000......Page 66
Did Polythink Lead to the Collapse of the Camp David Talks?......Page 68
GROUP POLARIZATION EFFECT......Page 69
CONCLUSION......Page 70
PART THREE: MODELS OF DECISION MAKING......Page 71
THE RATIONAL ACTOR MODEL......Page 73
CASE STUDY: NEW ZEALAND'S DEFIANCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND ANZUS......Page 75
THE EXPECTED UTILITY MODEL OF WAR DECISION MAKING......Page 76
OPPORTUNITY COSTS......Page 77
GAME-THEORETIC MODELS......Page 78
Prisoner’s Dilemma......Page 80
Chicken......Page 81
Tit-for-Tat......Page 82
CONCLUSION......Page 83
BOUNDED RATIONALITY AND THE CYBERNETIC MODEL......Page 84
BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS......Page 86
ORGANIZATIONAL POLITICS......Page 89
PROSPECT THEORY......Page 91
Sunk Costs......Page 93
INTEGRATING THE RATIONAL AND COGNITIVE MODELS: POLIHEURISTIC THEORY......Page 94
What is Poliheuristic Decision Making?......Page 95
Background......Page 97
A Rational Actor Interpretation......Page 98
A Cybernetic Explanation......Page 99
A Prospect Theory Explanation......Page 100
A Poliheuristic Explanation......Page 101
An Organizational Politics Explanation......Page 102
APPLIED DECISION ANALYSIS......Page 103
A Simple Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Decision Matrix......Page 104
ADA: A Closer Look......Page 105
Application to Decisions of Leaders of Terrorist Organizations: Bin Laden and al-Qaeda......Page 108
CONCLUSION......Page 109
PART FOUR: DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING......Page 111
PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS......Page 113
Cognitive Consistency......Page 114
Emotions......Page 115
Beliefs, Belief Systems, and Schema......Page 117
Operational Code Analysis......Page 118
Analogies and Learning......Page 119
The “Munich Analogy” and Use of Analogies in U.S. Foreign Policy......Page 120
The Analogies Provided by Guatemala, 1954......Page 122
The Bay of Pigs......Page 124
The Cuban Foco and Africa, 1965......Page 125
Bolivia, 1966–1967......Page 127
Leaders’ Personality......Page 130
Leadership Style......Page 131
Types of Leaders: Crusader, Strategic, Pragmatic, and Opportunistic......Page 132
COGNITIVE MAPPING......Page 135
CONCLUSION......Page 136
Deterrence and Arms Races......Page 137
Strategic Surprise......Page 141
Alliances......Page 142
Regime Type of the Adversary......Page 143
Diversionary Tactics......Page 145
Economic Interests and Foreign Policy Decisions......Page 146
The Role of Public Opinion......Page 147
Electoral Cycles......Page 148
The Effect of Domestic and International Factors on Foreign Policy Decisions: Two-Level Games......Page 149
Diversionary Behavior......Page 150
Deterrence and Misperception......Page 151
DECISIONS ON THE USE OF ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS OF FOREIGN POLICY......Page 152
The Decision to Use Sanctions as an Instrument of Foreign Policy......Page 153
The Decision to Use Aid in Foreign Policy......Page 154
NEGOTIATION AND MEDIATION DECISIONS......Page 155
DECISIONS ON FOREIGN POLICY SUBSTITUTABILITY......Page 157
GENDER DIFFERENCES IN DECISION MAKING......Page 159
CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN DECISION MAKING......Page 160
CONCLUSION......Page 161
PART FIVE: MARKETING FOREIGN POLICY......Page 163
MARKETING EFFECTS......Page 165
FRAMING EFFECTS......Page 166
The Frame as a Political Lens......Page 167
Who is Framing Whom? Framing the Public......Page 168
Framing beyond the Borders......Page 171
Advisory Group Framing and Manipulating......Page 172
Summary......Page 175
MEDIA EFFECTS......Page 176
Background......Page 178
The Marketing of the Decision......Page 179
The Decision Process......Page 180
CONCLUSION......Page 182
PART SIX: CONCLUSION......Page 183
9 Conclusion......Page 185
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?: A CASE STUDY OF THE U.S. DECISION TO INVADE IRAQ IN 2003......Page 187
CONCLUSION......Page 191
KEY BENEFITS......Page 193
References......Page 195
Index......Page 215