Understanding Climate Change Science, Policy, and Practice

Cover
Contents
Preface
1. Climate Change in the Public Sphere
	1.1. Communicating about climate change
	1.2. The state of the science
	1.3. Responding to climate change: Mitigation and adaptation
	1.4. A brief history of climate change policy
		1.4.1. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol
		1.4.2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
	1.5. The scale of the challenge: Accelerating action on climate change
	1.6. Roadmap of the book
2. Basic System Dynamics
	2.1. What is a system?
		2.1.1. System parts and interactions
		2.1.2. Stocks and flows
		2.1.3. Feedbacks
		2.1.4. Lags
		2.1.5. Function or purpose
	2.2. Earth’s climate system: The parts and interconnections
		2.2.1. Atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and anthroposphere
			2.2.1.1. The atmosphere
			2.2.1.2. The hydrosphere
			2.2.1.3. The biosphere
			2.2.1.4. The geosphere
			2.2.1.5. The anthroposphere
		2.2.2. The ins and outs of Earth’s energy budget
			2.2.2.1. Does what comes in go out?
			2.2.2.2. Climate sensitivity: How much bang for your buck?
		2.3. Integrating systems, science, and policy
3. Climate Controls: Energy from the Sun
	3.1. Incoming solar radiation
		3.1.1. Blackbody radiation: The Sun versus Earth
		3.1.2. Our place in space: The Goldilocks planet
	3.2. Natural variability
		3.2.1. 4.5 billion years of solar energy
		3.2.2. Orbital controls: Baseline variability in the past few million years
			3.2.2.1. Eccentricity: The shape of Earth’s orbital path
			3.2.2.2. Tilt
			3.2.2.3. Precession of the equinoxes
			3.2.2.4. The link to ice age cycles
		3.2.3. Sunspots: How important?
	3.3. Response strategies
4. Climate Controls: Earth’s Reflectivity
	4.1. Natural variability
		4.1.1. At Earth’s surface: Ice, water, and vegetation
			4.1.1.1. Ice
			4.1.1.2. Water and sea level
			4.1.1.3. Vegetation
		4.1.2. In the atmosphere: Aerosols and clouds
			4.1.2.1. Aerosols
			4.1.2.2. Clouds
	4.2. Anthropogenic variability
		4.2.1. Land-use changes
		4.2.2. Anthropogenic aerosols
	4.3. Response strategies
5. Climate Controls: The Greenhouse Effect
	5.1. How does the greenhouse effect work?
		5.1.1. Characteristics of a good greenhouse gas
		5.1.2. Energy flows in a greenhouse world
	5.2. The unperturbed carbon cycle and natural greenhouse variability
		5.2.1. Carbon stocks and flows
		5.2.2. Time scales of natural greenhouse variability
			5.2.2.1. The long-term view: Hundreds of millions of years
			5.2.2.2. The medium-term view: Hundreds of thousands of years
			5.2.2.3. Abrupt change: Analogue for our future?
		5.2.3. Feedbacks involving the greenhouse effect
	5.3. Anthropogenic interference
		5.3.1. Perturbed stocks, flows, and chemical fingerprints
		5.3.2. Cumulative carbon emissions: A budget
6. Climate Change Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Transforming the Energy System
	6.1. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: An overview
	6.2. The global energy system
	6.3. Mitigation strategies
		6.3.1. Demand-side mitigation: Energy efficiency and conservation
			6.3.1.1. Energy-efficient technologies
			6.3.1.2. Conservation and behavior change
		6.3.2. Supply-side mitigation
			6.3.2.1. Wind power
			6.3.2.2. Solar power
			6.3.2.3. Biomass and biofuels
			6.3.2.4. Geothermal energy
			6.3.2.5. Tidal power
		6.3.3. Carbon capture and storage
			6.3.3.1. Carbon capture and storage
			6.3.3.2. Carbon sequestration
	6.4. Fostering accelerated and transformative mitigation
7. Climate Models
	7.1. Climate model basics
		7.1.1. Physical principles
		7.1.2. The role of observations
		7.1.3. Time and space
		7.1.4. Parameterization
		7.1.5. Testing climate models
	7.2. Types of climate models
		7.2.1. Energy balance models
		7.2.2. Earth system models of intermediate complexity
		7.2.3. General circulation models
		7.2.4. Regional climate models
		7.2.5. Integrated assessment models
	7.3. Certainties and uncertainties
8. Future Climate: Emissions, Climatic Shifts, and What to Do about Them
	8.1. Emissions scenarios
		8.1.1. SRES scenario “families” and storylines
		8.1.2. Post-SRES and representative concentration pathways
	8.2. The global climate in 2100
		8.2.1. Temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and extreme weather
			8.2.1.1. Temperature
			8.2.1.2. Precipitation
			8.2.1.3. Sea-level rise
			8.2.1.4. Extreme weather and abrupt changes
		8.2.2. Uncertainty
	8.3. Backcasting
	8.4. The scale of the challenge: Transforming emissions pathways
9. Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Systems
	9.1. Observed impacts
		9.1.1. Impacts on land
			9.1.1.1. The changing timing of events, migration of species, and altered morphology
			9.1.1.2. Coastal erosion and rising sea levels
		9.1.2. Impacts in the oceans
	9.2. Adaptation in natural systems
	9.3. Policy tools and progress
		9.3.1. International tools
		9.3.2. National and subnational tools
			9.3.2.1. Ecosystem-based approaches at work: The Wallasea Island Wild Coast project
			9.3.2.2. Ecosystem-based approaches at work: Peatland rewetting in Belarus
			9.3.2.3. Ecosystem-based approaches: Conclusion
	9.4. Conclusions
10. Climate Change Impacts on Human Systems
	10.1. Introduction
	10.2. Key concepts in climate change impacts and adaptation
	10.3. Observed and projected impacts of climate change
		10.3.1. Impacts on water and food
		10.3.2. Impacts on cities and infrastructure
		10.3.3. Equity implications: Health and the global distribution of wealth
	10.4. Adaptation in human systems
		10.4.1. How to “do” adaptation
	10.5. Policy tools and progress
		10.5.1. Policy tools for adaptation
		10.5.2. International and national adaptation
		10.5.3. Subnational adaptation
		10.5.4. Social movements and human behavior: The root of the adaptation conundrum
11. Understanding Climate Change: Pathways Forward
	11.1. Integrating adaptation and mitigation: A sustainability approach
	11.2. Development paths and transformative change
	11.3. Ethics, equity, and responsibility
	11.4. Individual choice and collective action: Moving forward
		11.4.1. Evidence-based decision-making and the science/policy interface
	11.5. Next steps
Notes
Index
Color plates