Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Vol. 1--Africa

Contents......Page 7
Foreword......Page 11
Preface......Page 15
1 The Collier-Hoeffler Model of Civil War Onset and the Case Study Project Research Design......Page 19
2 Civil War and Its Duration in Burundi......Page 53
3 The Economics of Civil War: The Case of the Democratic Republic of Congo......Page 81
4 Theory Versus Reality: Civil War Onset and Avoidance in Nigeria Since 1960......Page 107
5 Sporadic Ethnic Violence: Why Has Kenya Not Experienced a Full-Blown Civil War?......Page 141
6 The Civil War in Mozambique: The Balance Between Internal and External Influences......Page 175
7 Sudan’s Civil War: Why Has It Prevailed for So Long?......Page 211
8 Algeria, 1992–2002: Anatomy of a Civil War......Page 239
9 Senegal and Mali......Page 265
10 Conclusion: Using Case Studies to Refine and Expand the Theory of Civil War......Page 321
Contributors......Page 353
Index......Page 357
2.1 Refugee Numbers (thousands) and the Geography of Conflict (1985–99)......Page 64
3.1 Real GDP per Capita (1996 PPP $) and Value Added by Sector (1995 $)......Page 91
3.2 Risk of War: Prediction from Collier and Hoeffler (2002)......Page 98
6.2 Incidents in Border Provinces (Percent of Total)......Page 183
6.2 Responsibility for Violence Against Civilians......Page 184
6.3 RENAMO’s Sources of Revenue......Page 190
6.4 Size of RENAMO’s Victim Groups......Page 201
6.5 Geographic Concentration of RENAMO Violence......Page 202
7.1 External Interventions in African Civil Wars by Regional and Global Third Parties......Page 227
7.2 Risk of Civil War......Page 228
7.3 Risk of Prevalence of Civil War in Sudan Relative to Median Country of Sub-Saharan Africa (pw[Sudan] vs. pw[SSA])......Page 229
9.1 Probabilities of Civil War from the Collier-Hoeffler Model......Page 279
9.2 Factors Contributing to Variation in the Probability of Civil War Outbreak in the Collier-Hoeffler Model......Page 280
9.3 Probabilities of Civil War from the Fearon-Laitin Model......Page 281
9.4 Factors Contributing to Variation in the Probability of Civil War Outbreak in the Fearon-Laitin Model......Page 282
1.1 Outbreaks of War in the CH Model......Page 22
1.2 Descriptive Statistics: CH Variables......Page 24
1.3 Opportunity Model......Page 28
1.4 Grievance Model......Page 30
1.5 Combined Opportunity and Grievance Model......Page 32
2.1 Key Characteristics of Burundi Civil War......Page 55
2.2 Predicted Probability of Civil War in Burundi (1965–95)......Page 58
2.3 Long-Term View of Ethnic Distribution of Leadership Positions (Percent of Total Posts)......Page 59
2.4 Ethnoregional Background of Burundi Leadership (%)......Page 60
2.5 Economic Underpinnings of Regionalism......Page 61
2.6 Changes in Regional Distribution of Displaced People (Percent of Population)......Page 68
2.7 Economic Indicators During the Period of Conflict......Page 71
A2.2 Phases of Different Episodes of War......Page 76
3.1 Characteristics of DRC’s War......Page 82
3.2 GDP Growth,Value Added by Sector, Inflation, and Budget Deficits,1960–98......Page 92
3.3 Characteristics of Main Rebel Movements Involved in the Anti-Kabila War......Page 96
3.4 Mineral Exports by Rwanda and Uganda, 1994–2000......Page 97
3.5 Means of Variables in the Collier-Hoeffler Model for DRC and Sample......Page 99
4.1 Summary of Violent Conflicts in Nigeria, 1986 –99......Page 108
4.2 Reported Antigovernment Violence in the Ijaw Rebellion......Page 128
4.3 Reported Anti-Oil Company Activity in the Ijaw Rebellion......Page 129
5.1 Ethnic Violence in Kenya......Page 146
5.2 Ethnic Composition and Heterogeneity by District......Page 158
5.3 Alienated Land by District......Page 161
5.4 Land Potential in Kenya......Page 163
5.5 Tribes Perceived to Be in the Opposition......Page 166
5.6 Ethnic Composition in the Rift Valley,1989 (Percent of Total Population)......Page 167
5.7 Estimated Voter Population of Selected Tribes in Clash Areas......Page 168
5.8 Population of the Largest Tribes in Kenya (1989)......Page 169
6.3 Growth of Forces (Trained Fighters)......Page 188
6.4 Responsibility for Incidents of Violence, 1976–94......Page 200
7.1 Population of Sudan by Major Ethnic Groups in 1956......Page 224
7.2 Political Regimes in Sudan 1956–2001......Page 226
7.3 Explaining the Prevalence of Civil War in Sudan Relative to Sub-Saharan Africa......Page 230
8.1 Algeria Versus Civil War Group (n =78)......Page 246
8.2 Algeria Versus No Civil War Group (n =1,089)......Page 247
8.3 Phases of Violence......Page 257
9.1 Evidence on Economic Grievances Prior to 1982......Page 288
9.2 Evidence on Economic Grievances 1980s and 1990s......Page 289
9.3 Socioeconomic Conditions by Region......Page 291
9.4 Variables and Mechanisms of Civil War in Mali and Senegal......Page 305