Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Vol. 2--Europe, Central Asia, and Other Regions

Contents......Page 7
Foreword......Page 11
Preface......Page 15
1 The Collier–Hoeffler Model of Civil War Onset and the Case Study Project Research Design......Page 19
2 Resources and Rebellion in Aceh, Indonesia......Page 53
3 The Lebanese Civil War, 1975–90......Page 77
4 Crime, Violence, and Political Conflict in Russia......Page 105
5 Conflict, Violence, and Crime in Colombia......Page 137
6 The “Troubles” of Northern Ireland: Civil Conflict in an Economically Well-Developed State......Page 179
7 Bosnia’s Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics......Page 209
8 Greed and Grievance Diverted: How Macedonia Avoided Civil War, 1990–2001......Page 249
9 Civil Wars in the Caucasus......Page 277
10 Conclusion: Using Case Studies to Refine and Expand the Theory of Civil War......Page 317
Contributors......Page 349
Index......Page 353
4.1 Map of Russia Showing Number of Homicides per 100,000 Population in Year 2000......Page 108
5.1 Colombia’s Homicide Rate (1945–2000)......Page 143
5.2 Kidnappings and Guerrilla Attacks, 1984–99......Page 144
5.3 FARC Men and Size of the Cocaine Crops......Page 145
5.4 Property Crime Rate and Road Piracy Rate......Page 146
5.6 Neighbor FARC vs. Neighbor Homicide Rate (1995–2000 mean)......Page 149
5.8 Neighbor Common Criminals vs. Neighbor Homicide Rate (1995–2000 mean)......Page 150
5.9 Contagious Diffusion Patterns......Page 152
5.10 Hierarchical Diffusion......Page 153
5.11 Local and Neighbor Homicide Rate (number of municipalities that experienced change between 1995–98 and 1998–2000)......Page 154
5.12 Neighbor Homicide Rate vs. Neighbor FARC (number of groups that experienced change between 1995–98 and 1998–2000)......Page 155
5.13 Neighbor Homicide Rate vs. Neighbor ELN (number of groups that experienced change between 1995–98 and 1998–2000)......Page 156
5.14 Neighbor Homicide Rate vs. Neighbor Common Criminals (number of groups that experienced change between 1995–98 and 1998......Page 157
6.1 Deaths by Month in the Northern Ireland Conflict......Page 191
6.2 Total Deaths per Year, 1969–99......Page 196
7.2 Estimated Number of Bodies in Mass Graves (1992 –93)......Page 237
7.3 Temporal Variation in Reported Incidents of Human Rights Abuses......Page 238
1.1 Outbreaks of War in the CH Model......Page 22
1.2 Descriptive Statistics: CH Variables......Page 24
1.3 Opportunity Model......Page 28
1.4 Grievance Model......Page 30
1.5 Combined Opportunity and Grievance Model......Page 32
2.1 The Three Incarnations of GAM......Page 54
3.1 War Period Militias......Page 82
3.3 Data on Lebanon......Page 88
3.4 Estimates of Financial Resources Accruing to Militias During the Civil War......Page 92
3.5 Estimates of Financial Resources Accruing to Militias During the Civil War......Page 94
4.1 Descriptive Statistics and Variable Definitions......Page 115
4.2 GMM Core Regression Results......Page 121
4.3 GMM Extended Regression Results......Page 122
4.4 Impact on Crimes from Additional Variance of Independent Variable (Percent)......Page 124
4.5 Conflict Regression Results......Page 125
4.6 Correlation of Socioeconomic Indicators with General Conflict Indicator......Page 130
5.1 Departmental Homicide Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants,1946–60......Page 140
5.2 Estimations of Homicides and Kidnappings, Municipal Level......Page 161
5.3 Estimations of Homicides and Kidnappings, Department Level......Page 163
5.4 Departmental Estimations of Property Crimes and Road Piracy......Page 167
5.5 Municipal Homicide Rate Decomposition, 1995–2000......Page 170
5.6 Departmental Kidnapping Decomposition, 1990–2000......Page 171
6.1 Northern Ireland and United Kingdom, 1970......Page 187
7.1 Income per Capita and Inequality by Region, 1988 and 1990......Page 214
7.2 CH Model of Civil War Onset (1960–99),with and without Bosnia......Page 216
7.3 National Composition of Yugoslavia,1961–91, by Republics and Provinces (Percent of Total Population)......Page 219
7.4 Montenegro Republic Parliamentary Elections, April 22,2001......Page 222
7.5 Checklist:CH Model “Fit” to the Bosnian Civil War......Page 240
9.1 Georgian Ethnic Composition (Main Groups)......Page 283