Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, Volume 4: Testing, Modeling and Risk Assessment

Organizational Structure of the Fifth World Landslide Forum
	Organizers
	Co-sponsors
	Supporting Organizations with Finance
	Organizing Committee
Foreword by Mami Mizutori
Foreword by the Assistant Director-General for the Natural Sciences Sector of UNESCO for the Book of the 5th World Landslide Forum
Preface I
	Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk
		Book Series: ICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk
	The Letter of Intent 2005 and the First General Assembly 2005
	The 2006 Tokyo Action Plan and the First World Landslide Forum 2008
	The Second World Landslide Forum 2011 and the Third World Landslide Forum 2014
	The Sendai Landslide Partnerships 2015 and the Fourth World Landslide Forum 2017
	The Fifth World Landslide Forum 2020 and the Kyoto Landslide Commitment 2020
	Call for Partners of KLC2020
	Eligible Organizations to be Partners of the KLC2020
	Appendix: World Landslide Forum Books
Preface II
Contents
1 Introduction—Testing, Modeling and Risk Assessment
	Abstract
	Background
	Part I—Keynote Lectures
	Part II—Recent Development in Physical Modeling of Landslides
	Part III—Recent Development in Numerical Modeling of Landslides
	Part IV—Recent Development in Soil and Rock Testing Techniques, Application and Analysis Methods
	Part V—Recent Advancements in the Methods of Slope Stability and Deformation Analyses
	Part VI—Recent Development in Disaster Risk Assessment
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
Keynote Lectures
2 Recent Developments in the Evaluation and Application of Residual and Fully Softened Shear Strengths for the Stability Analyses of Landslides
	Abstract
	Background
		Shearing Behavior of Soil
		Different Modes of Shearing
		Appropriate Shear Strengths
		Importance of Correlations
	Fully Softened Shear Strength
		Background
		Measurement Methods
			Direct Shear Tests
			Triaxial Tests
			Direct Simple Shear Tests
			Ring Shear Tests
			Other Tests
		Interpretation Methods
			Linear Interpolation with Mohr-Coulomb Failure Envelopes
			Nonlinear Failure Envelopes
			Secant Friction Angles
		Influencing Factors
			Weathering
			Mineralogical Composition
			Pore Water Chemistry
		Available Correlations
	Residual Shear Strength
		Background and Meaning
		Measurement Methods
			Ring Shear
			Direct Shear Testing
			Triaxial Testing
			Other Forms of Testing
			Comparison of Results from Different Tests
		Interpretation Methods
		Influencing Factors
			Strain Rate
			Pore Fluid Chemistry
			Clay Content
			Mineralogy
			Moisture Content
			Healing
		Available Correlations
			Correlations Between Residual and Fully Softened Friction Angles
	Discussion
	Summary and Conclusions
	References
3 Oso Landslide: Failure Mechanism and Runout Analyses
	Abstract
	Landslide Overview
	Subsurface Conditions
	Prior Landslide History
	2014 Landslide
	Phase I Slide Mass
	Colluvial Flowslide of Phase I
	Phase II Slide Mass
	Seismic Records
	Runout Analyses
	Liquefied Shear Strength
	DAN3D Results
	ANURA3D Results
	FLO-2D Results
	Summary
	Data Availability Statement
	Acknowledgements
	References
4 Numerical Modelling for Slope Stabilizations in Modern Geotechnical Practice
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Landslide Stabilizations Using Structural Elements
		Introduction
		Traditional Techniques for the Design of Slope Stabilizations that Incorporate Structural Elements
		Sources of Uncertainty
	Strength Reduction Method
		Introduction
		Stabilizing Piles
		Complex Stabilizations Using Piles and Anchors
	Dynamic Slope Stability
		Introduction
		Recommended Practice
		Simplified Soil Modelling
		Model Boundaries
	Conclusions
	References
5 Recent Advances in the Methods of Slope Stability and Deformation Analyses
	Abstract
	Background
	Historical Perspective of Slope Stability and Deformation Analyses
	Developments in Slope Stability and Deformation Analyses
		Improvements to Computational and Graphical Capabilities
			Case Study
			Case Study
		Macro Level Stability Analysis for Regions
			Case Study
			Case Study
		Growth of Three-Dimensional Slope Stability Analyses
			Case Study
			Case Study
		Probabilistic Slope Stability Analyses and the Incorporation of Risk
			Case Study
		Slope Stability for Unsaturated Slopes
		Methods for Deformation Analyses
			Case Study
		Analysis to be Performed for Landslides
			Case Study
		Discussion
	Summary and Conclusions
	References
6 Engineering Risk Mitigation for Landslide Hazard Chains: The Baige Landslides on the Jinsha River in 2018
	Abstract
	Managing the Risks of Landslide Hazard Chains
	Landslide Hazard Chains on the Jinsha River in 2018
		The Landslide and Damming at Baige on 10 Oct. 2018
	The Landslide and Damming on 3 Nov. 2018
	Principle of Hazard-Chain Risk Management
	The First Test of System Coping Capability: Breaching of the Landslide Dam Formed on 10 Oct. 2018
	Systematic River-Basin Risk Management
		Likely Hazard Chain Triggered by the 3 Nov. 2018 Landslide
	Dam Breaching and River Flood Routing Analyses
	Engineering Risk Mitigation Measures
	Non-Structural Risk Mitigation Measures
	Systematic Longer-Term Risk Management
		Managing Residual Landslide Risks at Baige
	Managing Longer-Term Landslide Risks at Baige
	Suggested Scientific Topics for Further Research on Landslide Hazard Chain Risk Management
	Summary
	Acknowledgements
	References
Recent Development in Physical Modeling of Landslides
7 Application of Magnetic Tracking System in Laboratory-Scale Rock Avalanche Model Tests
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Magnetic Tracking System
		Background
		Algorithm to Determine Tracker Information
	Laboratory-Scale Rock Avalanche Experiments
		Hardware and Materials Used
		Experimental Set-Up
	Experimental Results
		Validation
		Other Kinematic Quantities
	Concluding Remarks
	Acknowledgements
	References
8 A Simple Physically-Based Distributed Translational Landslide Model
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Model Description
	Model Configuration and Input
	Model Testing
		Study Area and Data
	Model Results
	Sirampog Subdistrict
		Kandang Serang Subdistrict
	Future Model Development
	Conclusion and Remark
	References
9 Study on the Behaviour of Slope Instability Using Physical Modelling
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Materials and Method
		Soil Properties
		Model Slope Experiment
		Numerical and Slope Stability Analysis
	Results and Discussion
		Physical Modelling
		Numerical Analysis
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgments
	References
10 Centrifuge Modelling of Slope Failure Due to Groundwater During Excavation
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Experimental Setup
	Experimental Results
	Prediction of Collapse Using Slope Surface Strain
	Conclusion
	References
11 Effects of Relative Density in Progressive Sliding of Tailing
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Experimental Materials
	Instrumentation of Flume Tests
	Results
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
12 Experimental Studies on the Effect of Vegetation Density to Change Underground Seepage Rate and Stability of Slopes
	Abstract
	Background
	Experimental Methods
	Experimental Modelling Results
	Soil Test Results
	Effects of the Seepage Velocity and Shear Strength of Soil on Slope Stability
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
13 Laboratory Simulations of Submarine Landslide Failure Mechanisms
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Simulating Submarine Landslide Reactivation in Response to Elevated Pore Fluid Pressures
	Simulating Submarine Landslide Reactivation in Response to Earthquake Loading
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
14 Laboratory Tests to Simulate the Rainfall Infiltration Process of Pyroclastic Soils Subject to Instability
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Tests With the Physical Model
	Flume Test T1: Homogeneous Deposit
	Flume Test T2: Two-Layered Deposit
	Flume Test T3: Three-Layered Deposit
	Conclusions
	References
Recent Development in Numerical Modeling of Landslides
15 3D Analysis of a Fragmental Rockfall
	Abstract
	Introduction
	UAV Surveys and 3D Terrain Reconstruction
	Rockfall Fractal Fragmentation Model (RFFM)
	Trajectory simulation with RockGIS
	Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
16 3D Landslide Models in VR
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Immersive Models
		Modelling versus Visualisation
		An Integrated ‘Digital Geohazard Space’?
		Technological Aspects
	Landslides and Potentially Unstable Slopes in VR
		A ‘Belgian’ Landslide Model
		The Koytash Landslide Case History
		The Rogun Right-Bank Slope Model
	What About Uncertainties in VR?
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
17 A Coupled Discrete Element and Depth-Averaged Model for Flow-Like Landslide Simulations
	Abstract
	Introduction
	The Coupled Landslide Model
		Discrete Element Method (DEM) Model
		Depth-Averaged Model (DAM)
		Boundary Conditions at the Coupling Interface
	Model Validation and Result
		Experiment of Dam-Break Granular Column Collapse
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
18 Advanced Methods for Simulating Complex Landslides
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Methods
	Results
		Challenges
	Enhancements
	Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
19 Application of Reciprocal Green’s Functions on the Forecast of Submarine Landslide Tsunamis
	Abstract
	Application of Reciprocal Green’s Functions in Submarine Landslide Tsunamis
	Features of RGF Approaches in the Forecast of SMF Tsunamis
		SMF in the 1781 Event of Taiwan
	Resolution Requirement
	Coastal Effect
	Computer Time Reduction
	Toward a Forecast System of SMF Tsunamis
	Detection of SMFs
	Quick Forecast of SMF Tsunami
	Forecast Based on In-Situ Measurement
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
20 Deformation Characteristics with Porewater Pressure Development of Shallow Landslide Triggered by Rainfall Infiltration
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Numerical Simulation
		Model Validation
		Materials
		Results and comparison
		Model Study
	Results and Discussion
		PWP and Volumetric Water Content (VWC) Response
			The Development of Slope Displacement with Time
	Conclusion
	References
21 Debris Flow Simulations Due to Landslide Dam Outburst and Considering Effective Countermeasures
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Simulation Target and Methods
		Akatani Landslide Dam Formation in 2011 Nara Prefecture, Japan
		Simulations for Debris Flow Due to the Landslide Dam Outburst in the Akatani Area 2011
	Simulation Results and Effective Countermeasures
		Simulation Results
		Simulations Considering the Effective Structural Countermeasures
	Conclusions and Future Works
	Acknowledgments
	References
22 Preliminary Results from the SMART-SED Basin Scale Sediment Yield Model
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Conceptual Scheme of the Model
		Model Equations
		Numerical Discretization
		Geostatistical Downscaling
		Numerical Results
	Conclusions and Future Developments
	Acknowledgments
	References
23 Hazard Assessment of a Rainfall-Induced Deep-Seated Landslide in Hakha City, Myanmar
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Study Area and Field Investigation
		Geological and Climate Settings
		Field Investigation
	Ring-Shear Testing and Computer Simulation
		Ring-Shear Tests
		Landside Susceptibility Assessment Using LS-RAPID Model
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
24 Landslide Hazard Zoning Based on the Integrated Simulation Model (LS-Rapid)
	Abstract
	Introduction
		Process of Urbanization in Yagi and Midorii
	Characteristics of the Debris Slide—Debris Flow Disasters in Hiroshima
		Triggering Factor
	Hazard Mapping Using LS-RAPID
	Discussions
	References
25 Numerical Models of Debris Flows with Entrainment Analysis-Case Studies from the Republic of Serbia
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Case Studies
		The Selanac Debris Flow
		The Leva Reka Debris Flow
	RAMMS (Rapid Mass Movement Software)
	Entrainment Model
	Results and Discussion
		Validation
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
26 Numerical Simulation of a Creeping Landslide Case in Japan
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Study Area
	Numerical Simulation
	Results and Discussion
		Results of Deformation Pattern and Shear Strain Pattern
		Results of Time Histories
		Failure Mechanisms
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
27 Numerical Simulation of Debris Flows After Ash Fall at Mt. Fuji
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Numerical Analysis Method
	Analysis Model and Analysis Conditions
		Analysis Model
		Analysis Conditions
	Analysis Results
		Summit Eruption
		Four Hillside Eruptions
	Tasks and Future Plans
	Acknowledgements
	References
28 On the Progression of Slope Failures Using Inverse Velocity of Surface Movements in an Undercut Slope Model
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Materials and Methods
		Materials Properties
		Justification on Low-Frictional Interface
	Experimental Setup
	Results
		Characteristics of Velocity Vectors
		Predicted Failure Time of Undercut Slope Model
		Monitoring Regions
	Discussion
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
29 Rainfall Boundary Condition in a Multiphase Material Point Method
	Abstract
	Introduction
	MPM Formulation for Partially-Saturated Soils
		Model Equations
		Discretization and Algorithm of Material Point Method
		Rainfall Boundary Condition
	Validation Case: 1D Infiltration Problem
		Geometry, Material and Boundary Conditions
		Model Results
	Conclusions
	References
30 Response of Slopes to Earthquakes and Rainfall
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Methodology
		Test Program
		Centrifuge Modelling Scales
		Experimental Setup
		Inflight Rainfall Simulator
		Soil Material
	Test Results and Discussion
		Test A: Slope Subject to Shaking and Rainfall
		Test B: Slope Subject to Only Rainfall
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
31 Reproduction of Sedimentation State During Rock Slope Failure Using the Simplified DEM Model
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Overview of the DEM Simple Model
		DEM Simple Model
		Rotational Friction
	Laboratory Experiments to Determine the RA of Various Particles and Reproduction Analysis by DEM
		Experimental Device
		Experimental Results
		Simulation Results
	Reproduction Analysis of Actual Damage
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
Recent Development in Soil and Rock Testing Techniques, Application and Analysis Methods
32 Analysis of Shear Strength Variability of Ash-Fall Pyroclastic Soils Involved in Flow-Like Landslides
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Geological Setting
	Data and Methods
	Results
	Conclusion
	References
33 Comparison of Soil Parameters and Soil Moduli E50 and E70 of Residual Soils Used in Stability Analysis
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Parameters and Residual Soil Origins
		Rainfall and Slope Failure Records
		Elastic Behaviours of Residual Soil
	Methodology
	Results and Discussion
		Residual Soil Strength Parameters, C′, ϕ′
	Interpretation of E50, E70 of Residual Soils
	Conclusions and Recommendations
	Acknowledgements
	References
34 Influence of Plant Root Asperities and Architectural Traits on Soil Shear Resistance
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Material and Experimental Methods
		Generalized Equivalent Confining Pressure (GECP)
		Experimental Materials
	Experimental Methods
		Root Surface Roughness
		Single Root Pull-Out Friction Test
		Triaxial Shear Test
	Results and Discussions
		Surface Roughness of Indigofera Amblyantha Roots
		Effect of Soil Moisture Content and Root Diameter on Pull-Out Shear Stress
		Effect of Root Characteristics and Confining Pressure on GECP in Reinforced Soil
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
35 Modelling of Creep Behavior of Claystone in Mae Moh Open-Pit Mine Using the Soft Soil Creep Model
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Methodology
		Creep Behavior
		Laboratory
		Model Comparison
	Determination Exercise of the Creep Movement on a Slope
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
36 Monotonic and Cyclic Behaviour of Tephra Layer Landslide at Takanodai from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Field Observation and Physical Properties of Kpfa
		Field Observation
		Physical Properties of Kpfa
	Testing Method of Monotonic Direct Shear Tests
	Constant Vertical Stress Monotonic Direct Shear Tests
	Testing Method of Cyclic Direct Shear Tests
	Constant Vertical Stress Cyclic Direct Shear Test
	Constant Volume Cyclic Direct Shear Test
	Soil Strengths by Yamanaka-Type Soil Penetrometer
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
37 Shearing Rate Effect on Residual Strength of Typical Clay Soils in Ring Shear Test
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Materials and Method
	Results and Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
38 Simple Shear Tests for Unsaturated Soils
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Materials and Methods
		Testing Device
		Soil Tested and Experimental Programme
	Shear Strength
	Soil Water Retention
	Wetting Tests Under Different Shear Stresses
	Concluding Remarks
	References
39 Simplest Methods of Determining Dynamic Soil Properties for Use in Co-seismic Hazard Analysis
	Abstract
	Background
	Post-Cyclic Shear Strength Recommendations in the Literature
	Materials and Methods
	Results
	Case Study—Ground Failure at Lokanthali, Nepal
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
40 The Acoustic Emission Characteristics and Shear Behaviour During Granular Shearing
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Experimental Method
	Results
		Time Series of Shear Resistance and AE Characteristics
	Average Occurrence Rate of AE Events
	Discussions
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
Recent Advancements in the Methods of Slope Stability and Deformation Analyses
41 Prediction of Deformation of Caisson Type Piles in Open cut Works and Countermeasures Employing Early Closure Method
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Geological Overview
	Construction Overview and Deformation of the Piles
		Construction Overview
			Deformation of Piles
	Cause of Deformation
		Decrease in Strength Due to Ground Deterioration After Excavation
	Horizontal Force Generated by Stress Release After Excavation
	Examination of Countermeasures
		Concept of Countermeasures
	Overview of Countermeasures
	Prediction and Examination of Countermeasures
		Predictive Analysis
	Setting of the Stress Release Rate
	Predictive Analysis Results
	Effect of Countermeasures
	Conclusion
	Reference
42 Slope Stability Assessment of Weak and Weathered Rocks with BQ System
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Study Area
	Methodology
	Results and Discussion
	Conclusions
	References
43 Soil Databases to Assist Slope Stability Assessments in the Eastern Caribbean
	Abstract
	Introduction
		Soil Classification Parameters
		Soil Friction Angle
	Building the Saint Lucia Soils Database
	Statistical Analysis
		Regression Analysis
		Updated Regressions
		Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Analysis
		Statistical Models
	Summary and Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
44 The Mt Gamalama Instability Level in Generating Landslide-Induced Tsunami in Ternate Island, Indonesia
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Geotechnical Properties of Mt Gamalama
		Geological Unit Classification
		Generalized Hoek Brown Failure Criteria
	Rock Mass Properties
	The Instability Level of Mt Gamalama
		Slope Stability Calculation
		Scenarios Applied in Calculations
		The Mt Gamalama Factor of Safety
	Discussion and Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
Recent Development in Disaster Risk Assessment
45 Effect of Pore Pressure Dynamics on Progressive Failure in a Clayey Glaciolacustrine Landslide
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Background
		The Thompson River Valley
		The Ripley Landslide Extents and Instrumentation
		Regional and Local Geology
	Investigation Methods
		Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD)
		Matric Potential (Suction) Monitoring
		Proactive Infrastructure Monitoring and Evaluation (PRIME)
	Results and Discussion
		Meteorology and Soil Suction Influence on Landslide Movement Trends
		Net infiltration Observations
	Summary
	Acknowledgements
	References
46 Engineering Geological Investigation and Slope Stability Analysis for Landslide Hazard Assessment in Indian Himalayas
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Engineering Geological Parameters
	Rock Mass Classifications
		Rock Mass Rating (RMR)
		Slope Mass Rating (SMR)
		Geological Strength Index (GSI)
	Rock Mass Characterization and Slope Stability Assessment
	Application of Rock Mass Classification for Numerical Analysis
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
47 First Consideration About Post 2017 Wildfire Erosion Response and Debris Flow in Susa Valley (NW Italy)
	Abstract
	Preface
	Introduction
	Methodologies
	The Susa Valley Case Study
	The Susa Valley Wildfire, October 2017
		Geological and Geomorphological Setting
	Post Fire Response
		Debris Flow
		Rainfall Data
		Processes Description
	Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
48 Identification of Sliding Surface and Crack Pattern in the Soil Creep, Case Study: Unika Soegijapranata Campus, Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Methodology
	Result and Discussion
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
49 Preliminary Result of Real-Time Landslide Monitoring in the Case of the Hinterland of Koroška Bela, NW Slovenia
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Data and Methods
		Study Case
		Real-Time Monitoring System
	Results and Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
50 Quantitative Risk Analysis of Earthquake-Induced Landslides
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Case Study: Franz Josef and Fox Glacier Valleys
	Risk Analysis Approach
	Methodology
		Landslide Frequency to Source Area Scaling
		Landslide Source Area to Volume Scaling
		Development of Magnitude—Frequency Relationships
	Application to Franz Josef and Fox Glacier Valleys
		Annual Frequency of Earthquakes
	Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
51 Role of Remote Sensing Technology in Landslide Risk Management of Hong Kong
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Advantages and Applications of Remote Sensing Technology
	Landslide Hazard Identification and Monitoring
	Post-landslide Responses and Residual Risk Management
	Design of Landslide Prevention and Mitigation Measures
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	References
52 The Characteristics of the Vegetation Distribution Related to the Slope Failure Caused by the Earthquake
	Abstract
	Introduction
	Study Area
		Geological and Topographic Features
		Rainfall
	Methodology
	Results Overview in the Whole Analysis Area
	Results of the Selected Area
	Discussion
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
53 Cutting-Edge Technologies Aiming for Better Outcomes of Landslide Disaster Mitigation
	Marui & Co. Ltd
	Nippon Koei Co. Ltd
	OSASI Technos, Inc
	Godai Corporation
	Japan Conservation Engineers & Co. Ltd
	OYO Corporation
	Kokusai Kogyo Co. Ltd
	Geobrugg AG
	Ellegi Srl
	Chuo Kaihatsu Corporation
	IDS GeoRadar S.R.L
	METER Group, Inc
	Asia Air Survey Co. Ltd
	Kiso-Jiban Consultants Co. Ltd
	Okuyama Boring Co. Ltd
	Kawasaki Geological Engineering Co. Ltd
	Nissaku Co. Ltd
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