Trade and Development Report 2010

Contents......Page 5
List of tables......Page 9
Table 1.1: World output growth, 1991–2010......Page 32
Table 1.2: Export and import volumes of goods, selected regions and countries, 2006–2009......Page 35
Table 1.3: World primary commodity prices, 2004–2010......Page 39
Table 2.1: GTA P simulation results of the impact of rebalancing in the United States and China on trade flows and factor prices, selected countries/groups......Page 88
Table 2.2: GTA P simulation results for changes in sectoral trade balance, selected countries/groups......Page 89
Table 2.3: GTA P simulation results for changes in sectoral employment, selected countries/groups......Page 91
Table 2.A1: GTAP simulation results of the impact of rebalancing in China on trade flows and factor prices, selected countries/groups......Page 105
Table 4.1: Total population and labour force, selected regions, 1981–2009......Page 131
2. Unemployment in developing countries: an overview......Page 132
Table 4.4: Labour force in agriculture, selected regions, 1981–2009......Page 134
Table 4.6: Correlation between annual GDP growth and unemployment rates, selected regions, 1980–2009......Page 135
4. Structural change and employment: recent evidence......Page 137
Table 4.8: Employment and income indicators, selected countries in Latin America, 1980–2008......Page 149
Table 4.9: Employment indicators in Africa, 1996 and 2008......Page 153
Table 4.10: Employment indicators, selected Asian countries, 1985–2008......Page 156
Table 5.1: Unemployment rates, selected economies, 1956–2008......Page 168
Table 5.2: Share of government revenues in rents from the extractive industries, selected commodities and countries, 2002–2009......Page 187
List of charts......Page 10
Chart 1.1: World trade by value and volume, January 2000–April 2010......Page 36
Chart 1.2: Monthly commodity price indices by commodity group, Jan. 2000–May 2010......Page 38
Chart 1.3: Current-acount balance, fiscal balance and real GDP growth in selected countries, 2005–2010......Page 43
Chart 1.4: Real GDP growth and contributions of net exports and domestic demand in selected countries, 1995–2010......Page 44
Chart 1.5: Evolution of prices in selected markets and countries, October 2008–June 2010......Page 46
3. Are global imbalances set to widen again?......Page 53
Chart 2.2: Personal consumption in the United States, 1950–2010......Page 72
2. United States consumption spending and imports......Page 73
Chart 2.4: Household consumption in selected countries and country groups, average for 2007–2008......Page 74
Chart 2.5: Curent-account balance and trade balance by end-use category in the United States, 1980–2009......Page 75
Chart 2.6: Percentage of similarity in the composition of imports of selected countries with the imports of the United States, 1992–2008......Page 76
Chart 2.7: Per capita household consumption expenditure and share of household consumption expenditure in GDP in selected countries, 2008......Page 79
Chart 2.8: Household consumption in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea from start of economic take-off......Page 80
Chart 2.9: Share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea from start of economic take-off......Page 81
Chart 2.10: Household consumption, employee compensation, corporate profits and disposable incomes of households and firms in China, 1993–2007......Page 82
4. Prospects for increasing household consumption in China......Page 83
Box 2.1: China: Skill composition of new job seekers......Page 85
Chart 2.13: GTA P simulation results for changes in world exports and labour intensity by industrial sector......Page 90
Chart 3.1: Unemployment rates in the EU-6, the United States and the euro area, 1960–2009......Page 111
2. Macroeconomic trends are key to employment......Page 112
Chart 3.3: Growth of employment and real GDP in developed countries, 1970–2009......Page 113
Chart 3.4: Growth of employment and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in developed countries, 1970–2008......Page 114
Chart 3.5: Growth of employment and real GDP in developing economies, 1970–2009......Page 116
Chart 3.6: Growth of employment and gross fixed capital formation in developing economies, 1970–2008......Page 117
Box 3.1: The link between wages and employment: the experiences of France and Germany compared......Page 120
Chart 3.B1.2: Private consumption and exports in France and Germany, 1999–2009......Page 121
Chart 4.1: Per capita output by sector, selected countries and country groups, 1995–2008......Page 139
Chart 4.2: Average sectoral contributions to economy-wide labour productivity gains, selected countries and country groups, 1995–2008......Page 141
Chart 4.3: Average sectoral shares in total value added and employment, selected countries and country groups, 1995–2008......Page 142
Chart 4.4: Employment, unemployment, GDP and labour productivity, selected regions, 1980–2009......Page 147
Chart 5.1: Share of compensation of employees in national income, selected country groups, 1980–2008......Page 172
Chart 5.2: Real interest rates and real GDP growth rates, selected countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, 1990–2009......Page 174
Chart 5.3: Annual growth rates of unit labour costs and inflation rates, 1970–2008......Page 180
List of boxes......Page 12
Box 1.1: Resolving the Greek crisis: policy constraints and systemic deficiencies......Page 50
Box 1.2: After the bailout: United States financial reform......Page 56
Box 2.2: Global rebalancing and the Indian economy......Page 95
Box 4.1: Increasing female participation in the labour force......Page 133
Box 5.1: Employer of last resort programmes in Argentina and India......Page 184
Explanatory notes......Page 13
Abbreviations......Page 15
Overview......Page 17
1. Global growth and international trade......Page 31
2. Recent trends in primary commodity markets......Page 37
B. Global recovery and rebalancing: current situation and prospects......Page 41
1. Developing countries at the vanguard of a potential recovery......Page 42
2. Coping with the vagaries of unfettered global finance......Page 45
3. United States: former global growth engine facing headwinds......Page 47
4. Europe: instability and divergence......Page 48
1. Fears of inflation, risks of deflation......Page 51
2. Does the G-20 process work?......Page 52
1. The exchange rate problem......Page 54
2. Stabilizing the financial system......Page 55
E. Outlook......Page 57
Notes......Page 58
References......Page 59
Description and terminology......Page 63
CDS price and default risks......Page 64
Are CDSs socially useful?......Page 65
Notes......Page 66
References......Page 67
A. Introduction......Page 69
1. Relationship between the current account balance and consumer demand in the United States......Page 71
2. How dependent is Chinese employment on exports?......Page 77
3. Household consumption and the share of labour compensation in total income......Page 78
D. The potential impact of a global rebalancing on trade flows and employment......Page 86
E. Conclusions: the need for a global macroeconomic reorientation for growth and employment creation......Page 92
Notes......Page 96
References......Page 99
Annex to chapter II: Simulation of the Trade and Employment Effects of Global Rebalancing: A Technical Note......Page 103
References......Page 106
A. Introduction: globalization and employment......Page 107
1. The problem with microeconomic reasoning about the labour market......Page 110
3. Do macroeconomic trends matter equally in developing countries?......Page 115
1. The “price of labour” and employment......Page 118
2. Productivity growth and employment......Page 119
D. Productivity-oriented wage growth supports investment and innovation......Page 123
E. Conclusions......Page 124
Notes......Page 125
References......Page 127
A. Introduction......Page 129
1. The employment challenge in developing countries......Page 130
3. Quality of employment......Page 136
5. The extractive industries: employment impact and economic linkages......Page 143
C. Impact of globalization and reforms on employment in developing countries......Page 145
1. Latin America: stagnation and deterioration of labour markets in the 1980s and 1990s......Page 146
2. Africa: persistence of a large informal sector despite structural adjustment policies......Page 152
3. South, South-East and East Asia:growth and employment before and after the 1997-1998 financial crisis......Page 154
Notes......Page 159
References......Page 161
A. Introduction......Page 165
1. Full employment in the “golden age of capitalism”......Page 167
2. Paradigm shift in the 1980s......Page 169
3. Structural adjustment and globalization......Page 171
1. The need for a new policy approach......Page 175
3. Monetary and financial policies......Page 177
4. An incomes policy for wage-led growth......Page 178
5. Incomes policy and inflation control......Page 179
1. Collective bargaining and the role of labour and employer organizations......Page 181
2. Minimum wages......Page 182
3. Public employment schemes......Page 183
5. Taxation: finding the right balance......Page 185
E. The external dimension......Page 189
Notes......Page 190
References......Page 192
Selected UNCTAD Publications......Page 195
Questionnaire......Page 203