Tools for Decision Making: A Practical Guide for Local Government

Cover
Endorsement
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
List of Boxes
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Worksheets
Preface
Part I Introduction
	1 The Role of Analysis in Local Government
		Analytic Heritage
		Resistance to Analysis
		Interaction With Program Officials and Employees
		Presentation of Findings
		The Role of Analysis
		Focus of this Book
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		References
Part II The Basics
	2 Central Tendency and Dispersion
		Central Tendency
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Avoid this Common Error
		Dispersion
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Building On the Base
		Suggested for Further Information
	3 Performance Measurement and Monitoring
		Examples of Performance Measurement
		Efficiency, Quality, Effectiveness, and Service Equity, Too
		Scenario: Tracking the Performance of Work Crews in Mineola, Missouri
		Seeking to Make a Good Measurement System Even Better
		Key Elements of an Advanced Performance Measurement System
		Back in the Director’s Office
		References
	4 Smoothing Data Trends by Using Moving Averages
		Scenario: Zornig, Minnesota
		Moving Averages
		Postscript
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Suggested for Further Information
	5 Sampling for Analysis
		Randomization
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Systematic and Stratified Samples
		Avoid this Common Error
		Sample Size and Confidence Level
		References
	6 Basic Statistical Testing: Correlation and Chi-Square
		Scenario: Satterfield, Alabama
		Pertinent Statistics
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Getting a More Complete Picture
		Chief Warren’s Response
		Avoid this Common Error
		Chi-square
		Sharing His Findings
		References
	7 Sensitivity Analysis
		Scenario: Clay County, Virginia
		Seeking Additional Advice
		Sensitivity Analysis
		Contingency Planning
		Sensitivity Analysis With Spreadsheets
			From the Electronic Toolkit
		Looking for Sensitivity Analysis Opportunities
		Suggested for Further Information
	8 Break-Even Analysis
		Scenario: Sweet Melody, Tennessee
		Break-even Analysis
		Back in Sweet Melody
		References
	9 Detecting Meaningful Differences in Average Performance
		Scenario: Little Gotham, Connecticut
		Evidence of Discriminatory Service?
		Testing the Difference Between Two Groups
		Interpreting the Result in Little Gotham
		Suggested for Further Information
Part III Analyzing a Unit’s Capacity to Meet the Demand for Service
	10 Demand Analysis
		Scenario: Newbern, Ohio
		A Case of Understaffing?
		Demand Analysis
		Findings
			Fire Department
			Customer Service Center
			Human Resources Department
			Business License Issuances
		Utility of Demand Analysis
		Advanced Demand Analysis
		Reference
	11 Work Distribution Analysis
		Scenario: Weber, Pennsylvania
		Overly Restrictive Specifications?
		Work-distribution Analysis
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Findings
		Results
		Utility of Work-Distribution Analysis
		References
	12 Using Performance Standards
		Scenario: Armadillo, Texas
		Work Standards for Mechanics
		Avoid this Common Error
		Implementation Plan
		Results
		Utility of Performance Standards
		References
	13 Staffing Analysis
		Scenario: Crab Harbor, Maryland
		Analyzing Staffing Needs
			The Problem With Employee-To-Population Ratios
		Avoid this Common Error
			Measure Service Demand Directly
			Examine the Evidence of Understaffing Directly
			Examine the Deployment of Current Resources
			Examine the Consequences of Presumed Understaffing and Consider Alternative Remedies
		Scenario: Back in Crab Harbor
		Summary Advice
		References
	14 Staffing Factor Calculation: Projections for Uninterruptible Services
		Calculating the Staffing Factor
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Scenario: White Dunes County, South Carolina
			Applying the Staffing Factor to White Dunes County
			Using the Information
		Utility of the Staffing Factor
		Suggested for Further Information
Part IV What Does It Cost?
	15 Adjusting for Inflation When Comparing Revenues Or Expenditures
		Scenario: Keystone, Nevada
		Inflation Indexes
		Scenario: Converting Keystone’s Police Patrol Expenditures to Constant Dollars
		Avoid this Common Error
		Suggested for Further Information
	16 Basic Investment Calculations: Figuring Interest Rates and Yields
		Scenario: Denia, Ohio
		Investment Calculations 101
			Calculating Yields Based On Simple Interest
			Calculating Yields Based On Intrayear Compound Interest
			Calculating the Interest Rate On an Investment
			Calculating the Yield From a Series of Even, Annual Cash Investments
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Back in Denia
		Avoid this Common Error
		Suggested for Further Information
	17 The Time Value of Money: Opportunity Costs, Discounting, Compounding, Future Value, and Present Value
		Scenario: South Fork, Texas
		Discount Factor
		Present Value Calculations
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Utility of Opportunity Cost Analysis
		References
	18 Simple Options for Annualizing Costs of Capital Items: Usage-Rate and Straight-Line Depreciation
		Scenario: Horace and Jasper, Iowa
		Annualizing Capital Expenses
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Making Appropriate Adjustments
		Utility of Techniques for Annualizing the Cost of Capital Items
		Suggested for Further Information
	19 Identifying Full Costs of a Program
		Scenario: Barrow, Maine
		Determining Full Costs
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Worksheets
		Utility of Full-Cost Identification
		References
	20 Calculating Go-Away Costs for Privatization Decisions
		Scenario: Buckaroo, Wyoming
		Reanalysis in Buckaroo
		Suggested for Further Information
	21 Life-Cycle Costing
		When to Apply the Technique of Life-Cycle Costing
		Preparing a Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
		Scenario: Lindsey, Virginia
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Variability of Relevant Factors
		Limitations of Life-Cycle Costing
		Suggested for Further Information
	22 Lease Or Buy?
		Scenario: Allegheny County, West Virginia
		Equivalent Annual Worth
			Making Assumptions
			Calculating the Equivalent Annual Worth
		From the Electronic Toolkit
			Testing the Sensitivity of the Results
		References
	23 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Truncated Version of Cost-Benefit Analysis
		Cost-benefit and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
		Scenario: Surf City, Florida
		Direct Costs and Benefits of Refuse Collection Options
		Postscript
		Reference
Part V Process Improvement
	24 Pareto Charts
		Scenario: Fiddler, Tennessee
		Pareto Charts
		Back in Fiddler
		References
	25 Cause-And-Effect Diagrams
		Scenario: Fiddler, Tennessee, Redux
		Cause-and-effect Or Fishbone Diagrams
		Back in Fiddler
		What Went Right in this Instance?
		References
	26 Process Flow Charts
		Scenario: Procedural Problems in Maybree County, North Carolina
		Process Flow Chart
		Back in Maybree County: A Streamlined Approach
		Utility of Process Flow Charts
		References
	27 Control Charts
		Scenario: Rockwood, Michigan
		Sorting the Signals From the Noise
		Constructing a Control Chart
			A Word of Caution About Other Approaches to Setting the UCL and LCL
		Back at the City of Rockwood
		Interpreting the Control Chart Results
		Interpreting Rockwood’s Charts
		What Went Right in Rockwood’s Handling of this Case? What Could Have Gone Wrong?
		Back in Rockwood
		References
Part VI Other Analytic Opportunities and Techniques
	28 Citizen Surveys and Customer Surveys
		Scenario: Idlewild, Delaware
		Surveys
		Avoid this Common Error
			Survey Everyone Or Just Service Users?
			Asking the Right Questions in the Right Way
			Accommodating Language Differences
			Getting Expert Assistance
		Scenario: Back in Idlewild
		Suggested for Further Information
	29 Analyzing Survey Data: Revealing Graphics and Simple Statistics
		Scenario: Tillery, Colorado
		More Revealing Graphics
		Pertinent Statistics
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Back in Tillery
		Avoid this Common Error
		Avoid this Common Error
		References
	30 Financial Condition Analysis
		Scenario: Hutchison, Iowa
		Options for Financial Condition Analysis
		Hutchison’s Search for an Assessment Tool
		The North Carolina Model
		Back in Hutchison
		The Value of Measuring Financial Condition
		References
	31 Random Chance Or Bias?: A Practical Use of Binomial Probability Distribution
		Scenario: Wattlington, Kansas
			Representation in Appointments and Employment?
		Binomial Probabilities
		From the Electronic Toolkit
		Testing the Evidence of Discrimination
		Interpreting the Results in Wattlington
		Suggested for Further Information
	32 Forecasting
		Scenario: Misty Glen, Pennsylvania
		Forecasting Methods
		Avoid this Common Error
			Expert Judgment
			Deterministic Techniques
			Trend Analysis
		From the Electronic Toolkit
			Econometric Techniques
		Assessing Forecasting Methods
		Scenario: Back in Misty Glen
		Meeting With the Manager and Budget Officer
		Epilogue
		References
	33 Analysis of Operations Via Benchmarking
		Scenario: Eliza, California
		Scatterplots and Regression Lines
		Postscript
		References
Part VII Presenting Analytic Evidence
	34 Presenting Analytic Evidence: Tables Or Graphs?
		Scenario: Dulles, Texas
		The Analysts Respond
		Guidelines for the Presentation of Analytic Evidence
		The Analysts Present Their Proposal
		Revised Plan for Presenting Analytic Evidence
		References
Part VIII Wrap Up
	35 The Place of Analysis in a Political Environment
		Disappointment, Yes; Discouragement, No
Appendix A Distribution of Chi-Square
Appendix B Distribution of T
Appendix C Future Value Interest Factors
Appendix D Sum of Annuity Factor (SAF)
Appendix E The Normal Distribution and Table of Z-Score Probabilities
Appendix F Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak: Installation, Use, and Example
	Installing Analysis ToolPak
	Analytic Techniques Available in Analysis ToolPak
	Analysis ToolPak Example: Using Regression
Index