Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
List of Tables and Figures......Page 11
Preface: The Shutdown......Page 13
ON POINT OF VIEW......Page 19
ON HOW THE BOOK CAME TO BE WRITTEN......Page 20
ON TRUTH, OBJECTIVITY, AND SPIN......Page 21
Acknowledgments......Page 23
1 Opinion Flows......Page 27
SEPTEMBER 11, 2001......Page 30
POLICY PREFERENCES......Page 32
SO, WHAT’S NEW?......Page 35
A THEORY OF PUBLIC OPINION......Page 38
Some People Some of the Time Pay Attention to Government......Page 40
Some People Some of the Time Care What Government Does......Page 41
Some of Those Who Pay No Attention to Government Will Nonetheless Form Public Opinions......Page 42
Much Public Opinion Is Media-Influenced......Page 43
Aggregation Gain......Page 45
Opinion Leadership......Page 46
DESIGN OF THE BOOK......Page 47
2 What the Public Wants from Government......Page 49
THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC OPINION......Page 51
Rehearsed Attitudes......Page 52
Nonattitudes......Page 53
Sampling from Competing Considerations......Page 54
ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE......Page 56
MEANS AND ENDS......Page 59
WHAT ARE THE CONSIDERATIONS?: POLICY DOMAINS......Page 63
Education......Page 64
Health Care......Page 66
Cities......Page 68
Environment......Page 70
Race......Page 71
Welfare......Page 73
Taxes......Page 75
Seven Issue Domains or One?......Page 76
Gun Control......Page 77
The Death Penalty......Page 78
Abortion......Page 80
3 Left and Right Movements in Preference......Page 84
THE ISSUE EVOLUTION THEORY OF ISSUE ALIGNMENT......Page 86
Issue Evolution Dynamics......Page 90
Story 1: Candidates......Page 91
Story 2: Voters......Page 92
Issue Bundles......Page 94
No Social Dimension......Page 95
THREE ISSUE EVOLUTIONS......Page 96
Case 1: Race......Page 97
Case 2: Women......Page 98
Case 3: Abortion......Page 100
PREFERENCES FOR LIBERALISM AND CONSERVATISM......Page 102
IDEOLOGY: OPERATIONAL AND SYMBOLIC......Page 110
Why Is It That So Many “Conservatives” Want Bigger Government?......Page 113
Who Are the Conflicted Conservatives?......Page 117
4 The Great Horse Race......Page 122
THE LORE OF PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS: THREE STORIES......Page 125
The Press......Page 126
Election Night Silliness: The Exit Poll......Page 128
Advertising and Campaign Professionals......Page 130
Political Science......Page 132
DO THE POLLS PREDICT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?......Page 134
Late Predictions......Page 135
Early Predictions......Page 136
The Course of the Campaign......Page 140
Reelection Landslides......Page 141
Contested Elections......Page 142
PARTY NOMINATING CONVENTIONS......Page 147
The Causality of the Bounce......Page 152
Some Long-term Patterns......Page 154
CANDIDATE DEBATES......Page 155
How Much Influence......Page 157
5 Between the Campaigns......Page 163
THE PRESIDENCY......Page 166
Three Recent Presidents......Page 167
Equilibration......Page 170
Crises......Page 171
The Honeymoon......Page 172
The National Economy......Page 173
U.S. SENATORS......Page 174
CONGRESS......Page 177
GOVERNORS......Page 178
TRUST IN GOVERNMENT......Page 179
IS APPROVAL GENERIC?......Page 180
6 On Politics at the Margin......Page 184
A TALE OF THREE ELECTIONS......Page 185
WHO ACCOUNTS FOR CHANGE IN AMERICAN POLITICS?......Page 188
The Uninvolved......Page 189
On Policy Preferences......Page 191
On Symbolic and Operational Ideology......Page 192
On the Horse Race......Page 194
On Response to Government......Page 195
ON MARGINAL DEMOCRACY......Page 196
Bibliography......Page 199
Index......Page 203