Theories of Change: Change Leadership Tools, Models and Applications for Investing in Sustainable Development

Foreword
	Why Research and Use Cases About Theories of Change?
Preface
	Synthesis of Rational and Emotional Decision-Making
	A Theory of Change Underlying Rational Approaches
	Article Series on Data Analysis and Computer Simulation
Contents
Contributors
Part I: Theories of Change: Defining the Research Agenda, Leadership and Change
	Theory of Change: Defining the Research Agenda
		1 Relevance of Topic: Why a Research Agenda for Theories of Change in the Investment Context Is Necessary
		2 Addressing the Research Gaps
		3 Process Elements of Theories of Change are missing
		4 Benefits of Applying a Theory of Change
		5 Defining the Research Agenda
		References
	About Bridges and Goals: On the Art of Change Management as a Bridge to the Goals for a Sustainable World and a World of Susta...
		1 Introduction
		2 Requirements for Complex Change Processes: Post-modern Organising as Catalyser for the Transition to Sustainability (Thesis ...
		3 Change Management in Social Contexts Means Addressing Practices: Insights in the Structure of Practice as a Fundament for Ch...
		4 Actors Differ: A Categorisation by Micro-, Meso- and Macro-Level Helps to Identify and Address Carriers and Drivers of Chang...
		5 Systems of Meaning and World Views: On the Stability of Self-absorbed Perspectives as Challenge for Change (Thesis Four)
		6 Goal-Setting and Sensemaking: The Two Sides of Change (Thesis Five)
		7 Interests and Change: On Interests Linked to Roles and Positions as Primary Targets for Change Management (Thesis Six)
		8 Structures and Strategies: On Means for Change and on Avoiding a Cockpit-Effect (Thesis Seven)
		9 Conclusion
		References
	Analysing the Credibility of Theories of Change
		1 Theory of Change: Does It Do What It Says on the Box?
		2 Old-School Development Theory
		3 How Do We Go Forward: Learning from Models That Bring About Effective, Long-Lasting and Sustainable Change
		4 Proposing a Viable, Efficient Alterative to the Classic Theories of Change and Their Inefficient Evaluations
		5 Conclusion
	Failed Theories of Change: Misperceptions About ESG Investment and Investment Efforts to Combat Climate Change
		1 Understand the Investor Intention
		2 EU Regulation: Good Intention, Lots of Action-But Missing the Point?
		3 How Can Financial Market Participants Combat Climate Change?
		4 Engagements and Voting for Creating Impact in Secondary Markets
		5 Theories of Change: Good Intention, Poor Execution
	Y.1: The Biological Code for Evolutionary Transformation and Strategic Investment Decisions
		1 Theory of Change: From Evolutionary Purpose to Evolutionary Investment
		2 Towards a New Paradigm of Transformation
		3 Switching the Operating System: Transdifferentiation as a Model for Paradigm Change
		4 Y.1: The Code for Evolutionary Transformation
		5 DECIDE: Governing Evolutionary Transformation
		6 Governing Evolutionary Transformation
		7 Evolutionary Investment: Giving Back the Soul and Closing the Socio-economic Gap
		References
Part II: Creating Global Frameworks
	Towards a Unifying Framework of Impact Assessment in Impact Investing
		1 Pushing for Impact Assessment in Impact Investing
		2 Dealing with Varied Definitions of Impact and Assessment
		3 Clarifying Approaches and Methods of Social Impact Assessment
		4 Reviewing Existing Frameworks of Impact Assessment
		5 Assessing Impact Investing Practices
			5.1 Reviewing Secondary Data
			5.2 Reviewing State of Play of Impact Investors in Asia
		6 Discussion and Recommendations
		7 Conclusion
		Appendix
		References
	Social Reporting Standard (SRS): Making Social Impact Visible
		1 Introduction
		2 The Importance of Impact Reporting
		3 What Is Impact?
		4 The Structure of the Social Reporting Standard
		5 Limitations
		6 Conclusion and Outlook
		References
	Clustering of Negative Criteria: A Pragmatic Approach for the Implementation of SRI
		1 Introduction
		2 Defining the Problem
		3 Clustering Criteria: Because One Size Does Not Fit All
		4 Conclusion and Perspectives
		References
Part III: Impact Investing
	Improving Early Childhood Development in Namibia with Result Based Financing
		1 Introduction
			1.1 ECD Service Landscape and Involved Organization
		2 Exploring a Result Based Financing Model for Early Childhood Development in Namibia
			2.1 Capacity Building for High Quality ECD Centers and for All Involved Stakeholders
		3 Conclusion
	An Analysis on Impact Measurement: How Do We Measure Impact?
		1 Impact Models
		2 Cynefin Model: A Practical Aid
		3 Change in Campaign(ing) Style
		4 How Does Theory of Change (ToC) Lead to the Practice of Change?
		5 The Steps for a Theory of Change
		6 Lessons from Bihar/India
		7 Advantages and Disadvantages
		8 Conclusions
	The Lessons of Microcredit
		1 Introduction: Sustainable Finance, a Concept in Danger of Dilution
		2 The Microfinance Narrative
		3 Theoretical Implications
		4 India´s Minsky Moment
		5 The Feeble Response of the Microfinance Industry
		6 Essential Elements of a Meaningful Change
		7 Conclusion
		References
	Impact Investing Practice Report: Impact Analysis and Impact Reporting at BonVenture
		1 Introduction
		2 Impact Reporting at BonVenture
			2.1 Conceptual and Regulatory Basis
			2.2 Impact Analysis
				2.2.1 Goal
				2.2.2 Process
				2.2.3 Portfolio Venture Example
			2.3 Impact Reporting at Portfolio Venture Level
				2.3.1 Goal
				2.3.2 Process
				2.3.3 Portfolio Venture Example
			2.4 Impact Reporting at Fund Level
				2.4.1 Goal
				2.4.2 Process
				2.4.3 Fund Example
		3 Discussion
		References
Part IV: Quantitative Analysis in Investing
	When Transparency Clouds Rather Than Clarifies: A Closer Look at Transparency Bias Within ESG Scores
		1 Introduction
		2 Analysis of Standard ESG Scores
		3 Transparency Bias Present in Standard ESG Scores
			3.1 Transparency: Highly Predictive of Standard ESG Scores
		4 Transparency Bias Concealed as Regional Bias
			4.1 ESG Scores Vary Significantly by Region: European Firms Perform Best, Emerging Markets Worst
		5 Transparency Bias Concealed as Size Bias
			5.1 Sizing Up Transparency Bias: The Larger the Company, the Bigger the Bias
		6 Transparency Bias and Portfolio Performance
			6.1 Investor Sentiment on the Value of ESG Ratings for Portfolio Performance
		7 Sustainability Does Not Equal Transparency
		8 Smart ESG: Free of Transparency Bias
			8.1 Determining the Degree of Systematic Transparency Bias Within Standard ESG Scores
			8.2 Smart ESG Corrects the Inflated Effect of Systematic Transparency Bias on ESG Scores
			8.3 Standard ESG Scores Versus RobecoSAM Smart ESG Scores: Comparing Scores Highlights Major Regional Discrepancies
			8.4 Harmonizing ESG Scores: Eliminating Transparency Noise Reduces Size Differences
		9 Smart ESG Characteristics
			9.1 Smart ESG Scores: Extracting Sustainability from Data, Enhancing Performance for Portfolios
		10 Conclusion
	Comprehensive Simulation Meta Model for Transition Planning and Decision Analysis with Sustainable Impact
		1 Introduction
		2 Model Summary
		3 Model Concept
			3.1 Overview of the Simulation Meta Model
			3.2 Synthesis of Domains
				3.2.1 Overview of Modules
				3.2.2 Special Modules
			3.3 Synthesis of Scopes, Scales and Granularities
				3.3.1 Scale
				3.3.2 Scope: Dimensions of Spatial Coverage
				3.3.3 Granularity: Controlling the Computational Cost
			3.4 Synthesis by Model Specificity
			3.5 Time Scales and Degrees of Dynamic Response
				3.5.1 Degrees of Dynamic Response
				3.5.2 Time of Knowledge and Real Time
			3.6 Synthesis of Modeling Techniques
				3.6.1 Structural Models
				3.6.2 Statistical Models
				3.6.3 Judgmental Models
		4 Techniques for Model Synthesis
			4.1 Networks, the Glue of the Model
			4.2 Levels of Attention: System and Environment
			4.3 Model Specificity Levels: Top-Down and Bottom-Up
		5 Model Accuracy and Consistency
			5.1 Use and Generation of Data
				5.1.1 Data Availability Requirements
				5.1.2 Data Processing Requirements
				5.1.3 Expert Judgement
				5.1.4 Data Format Requirements
				5.1.5 Data Output
			5.2 Controlling Accuracy
			5.3 Model Locators
			5.4 Model Selection Criteria
				5.4.1 Model Coverage: Domain and Scope
				5.4.2 Model Resolution: Granularity and Level of Specificity
				5.4.3 Degree of Dynamic Response
				5.4.4 Required Resources: Data, Computing Power, and Parameterization Effort
				5.4.5 Model Quality
				5.4.6 Model Diversity
				5.4.7 Practical Considerations
		6 Model Development Approach
			6.1 Development around Use Cases
			6.2 Analytics and Early Deliveries
				6.2.1 From Scenario Analysis to a Fully Dynamic Simulation
				6.2.2 Examples of Minimum Viable Products
			6.3 Model Application and Development Cycles
				6.3.1 Model Application and Development Phases
		7 Example: Financially, Societally, and Environmentally Outperforming Investments
			7.1 Use Case
			7.2 System Overview
				7.2.1 Issue Chains
				7.2.2 From the Input to the Output
			7.3 Anticipated Results
		8 Conclusions
		Appendix
			Terminology and Key Term Definitions
			Interaction Between Use Case and Model Development
			Model Artefacts
		References
Part V: Ecosystems
	Banking 4.0: Digital Ecosystems and Super-Apps
		1 Panta Rhei
		2 Trends Trigger New Business Scenarios
		3 The Future Digital Ecosystem
		4 Alibaba: The Ultimate Ecosystem Case
			4.1 Cross-Sector Diversification
			4.2 The Golden Triangle of Ecosystems
			4.3 Platform Business Models
			4.4 Embracing Change and Become Big
		5 The Super-App Is the New Bank
		6 The New Role of Banks
		7 How to Create Value from Digital Ecosystems
		8 Conclusion
	Orchestrating Value Co-Creation in Business Ecosystems
		1 Introduction
		2 Value Creation in a Digital Enabled Business Environment
			2.1 Value Creation Based on Digital Technologies
			2.2 Value Creation Based on Information as a Resource
			2.3 The Company as an Orchestrator of Value Co-Creation
		3 An Allocentric Perspective on the Business Model Concept
		4 Conceptualizing the Allocentric Business Model
			4.1 Service Dominant Logic Theory
			4.2 Business Ecosystems
			4.3 Business Model Dimension and Components
			4.4 Key Components of Allocentric Business Models
		5 Orchestrating Value Co-Creation through Allocentric Business Models
		6 Conclusion
		References
Part VI: Blockchain, Chryptoeconomics and Sustainability
	Change Through Crypto-Economics
		1 Introduction
		2 What Is a Blockchain?
		3 How Blockchain Links to Economics
		4 How Blockchains Can Be Used to Drive Change
			4.1 Blockchain as a Driver to Change User Behavior
			4.2 Blockchain as a Driver to Change Network Topology
		5 Examples of Blockchains for Change Towards Sustainability
			5.1 Sustainable Monetary System
			5.2 Renewable Energy
		6 Implications of Blockchain on Investing and Conclusion
		References
		This article draws on ideas developed in:
	Blockchain and Sustainable Development Goals: From Blue Skies Estimates of Impact to Bottom-Up Essentials
		1 Blockchain Use in Sustainable Development
			1.1 Blue Sky Estimation of ``Market Opportunity´´ and Social Impact
		2 Why Blockchain?
			2.1 Blockchain Basics
			2.2 Blockchain Opportunities
		3 Evolving Blockchain Landscape
			3.1 The Rise and Fall of the Whitepaper for Initial Coin Offerings
		4 Difference Between Crowdfunding and Using an ICO
		5 The Conflation Issue
		6 Repositioning the Discourse
		7 Use Cases
			7.1 The Challenges
			7.2 Heterogeneity
			7.3 Incentives
			7.4 Credibility
		8 Conclusions and Recommendations
			8.1 Shifting Value Chains as Investment Opportunity
	The Tokenization of Assets: Using Blockchains for Equity Crowdfunding
		1 Introduction
		2 Blockchain and Token Standards
			2.1 Blockchain
			2.2 Token Standards
				2.2.1 UTXO-Based Tokens
				2.2.2 Layer-Based Tokens
				2.2.3 Smart Contract-Based Tokens
		3 Tokenization and Crowdfunding
			3.1 General Advantages
				3.1.1 Cryptographically Secured Ownership
				3.1.2 Programmable Assets
				3.1.3 Access to the Blockchain Ecosystem
				3.1.4 Divisibility
			3.2 Secondary Market
				3.2.1 Intermediaries
				3.2.2 Standardization and Interoperability
				3.2.3 Atomic Transactions and Multisig Assets
			3.3 Drawbacks
				3.3.1 Quality of Project
				3.3.2 Regulatory Issues
				3.3.3 Energy Consumption
		4 Discussion and Conclusion
		References
	Blockchain and the Evolution of  Information Society
		1 A Quick Overview of the (Written) Journey So Far
		2 Thirty Years After the Web: New Superpowers Unlocked by Blockchain
		3 From Pyramids in the Desert to the Data Pyramids of Tomorrow
		4 A Digital Crossroad Marking the Rise of the Learning Society
		5 Innovation Systems, Collective Intelligence and Decentralized Organizing
		6 Advanced Knowledge Architecture for Social Human Action (AKASHA): From Collected Intelligence to Collective Intelligence
	Cryptography Leads the Next Wave of Societal Change
		1 Introduction
		2 A New Vision of Money
		3 Challenges and Levers
		4 Conclusions
		References
	Machine Learning and Finance
		1 Perspectives
		2 Fields of Application
		3 From Pretrade Analytics to Portfolio Optimization
		4 From Risk Management to B-C
		5 Outlooks
		References
Part VII: SDG Topic
	The Gender Investment Gap
		1 The Gender Investment Gap
		2 Exploring the `Why´ Behind the Gap
			2.1 One of the Underlying Reasons for Today´s Gender Investment Gap Can Be Found in History
			2.2 An Economic System Built by and for Men: With a Focus on ``Male´´ Qualities
			2.3 Gender Roles Influence Us, from Childhood to Pitching
			2.4 How Gender Impacts Perception, Language and Funding for Women
			2.5 Feminine Behavior in a Male Oriented Investment World
			2.6 Good Old Sexism Still at Play
			2.7 The Profile of the Successful Entrepreneurship Is Male
			2.8 Adding Another Layer to the Gender Bias: Race
			2.9 Investors Invest in What They Fully Understand
			2.10 Gender Gap on the Investors Side
		3 Many Good Reasons to Invest (More) in Women
			3.1 The Business Case for Funding Female Founders Is Simple: Female Founders Outperform Their Male Counterparts
			3.2 Furthermore, Women Possess What Is of Interest for Investors: Intrinsic Motivation, Long-Term Thinking and a Sense for Inn...
			3.3 Last But Not Least: Closing the Gender Gap Is Not Only Fair, But Also Means Overall Economic Growth
		4 Best Practices for Female Entrepreneurs
			4.1 Build Your Female Support Network
			4.2 Be Strategic and Clear When Networking
			4.3 Focus on the Figures
			4.4 Confidentially Ask for What You Need
			4.5 Focus Your Answers on Potential
			4.6 Team up with Men
		5 Best Practice for the World
			5.1 Cooperation
			5.2 Contribution
			5.3 Sharing
			5.4 Inclusion
			5.5 Partnership
		References
	The Era of New Leadership
		1 Introduction
		2 The Evidence Is In: So Why Is So Little Being Done?
		3 The Athena Doctrine
			3.1 SUPRACAFÉ: Coffee for Peace and Development
			3.2 Foundation Ana Bella
		4 Conclusion
		References
	Social Enterprises: Investment in a Sustainable Social Development with Added Value
		1 Introduction
		2 Terminology
		3 Legal Framework
		4 Investment Case and Fund Structure
			4.1 The Investment Model
			4.2 The Participation Model
			4.3 The Fund Structure
			4.4 The Exit Strategy
			4.5 The Donation Element
		5 Investment Examples
			5.1 R.U.S.Z Reparatur- und Service-Zentrum (Austria)
			5.2 Capito (Austria)
			5.3 Helioz (Austria)
			5.4 Nut and Feder (Austria)
		6 Visions for the Future
Part VIII: Climate Change
	Domestic Heating and China´s Sustainable Energy Goals
		1 Introduction
		2 Literature Review
		3 Data and Research Method
			3.1 Data
			3.2 Research Method
			3.3 Statistical Summary
		4 Results and Analysis
			4.1 Domestic Heating Energy Consumption Trend
			4.2 Regression Results
		5 Conclusion with Policy Implications
		References
	Sustainable Energy Investment in Australia
		1 Introduction
		2 Institutional Background
		3 Research Methodology
			3.1 SandP Approach
			3.2 SDG Measurement
		4 Results Analysis
		5 Conclusion
		References
	The Money Pipeline: The Role of Finance in the Climate Emergency
		1 Part I
		2 Part II
		3 Case Study: Insurance Campaign
		References
	Moving the Topic of Climate Change from Politics to Economics
		1 Introduction
		2 A Brief History of Climate Science
		3 Current State: IPCC and Recap of Special Report on Ocean/Cryosphere
		4 Link to Increase in Extreme Events
		5 Psychology of Change
		6 The Players
		7 Government/Politics
		8 Organizations
		9 Infrastructure/RandD
		10 Capital Markets/(Re-)Insurance
		11 Zeroing in on Insurance
		12 Impact on Regulation
		13 Conclusion
		References
Index