The Uses and Abuses of Forecasting

Front Matter....Pages i-xii
Introduction....Pages 1-4
The Development of Forecasting: Towards a History of the Future....Pages 5-41
Economic Forecasting....Pages 42-53
Market Forecasting....Pages 54-63
Transport Forecasting: Fixing the Future....Pages 64-92
The Brighton Marina: A Case Study in Arbitrariness, Uncertainty and Social Welfare in Planning Models....Pages 93-107
Manpower Forecasters as Lobbyists: A Case Study of the Working Group on Manpower Parameters for Scientific Growth 1965–8....Pages 108-142
Population Forecasting: Social and Educational Policy....Pages 143-181
Shadows on the Seventies: Indicative World Plan, the Protein Gap, and the Green Revolution....Pages 182-200
The Accuracy of Long-term Forecasts for Non-Ferrous Metals....Pages 201-228
Forecasting the Forces of Nature....Pages 229-247
Telecommunications....Pages 248-266
Long-range Forecasting and Policy-Making — Options and Limits in Choosing a Future....Pages 267-288
The Political Limits to Forecasting....Pages 289-322
Interests, Hopes and Fears — Can We Change the Future?....Pages 323-343
The Uses of Forecasting: Some Concluding Comments....Pages 344-350
Back Matter....Pages 351-358