The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World

Title page
Copyright page
Contents
List of figures
List of tables
Preface
Language and measures
Acknowledgements
Permissions
Part I: The Litany
	1     Things are getting better
		The Litany
		Things are better – but not necessarily good
		Exaggeration and good management
		Fundamentals: trends
		Fundamentals: global trends
		Fundamentals: long-term trends
		Fundamentals: how is it important?
		Fundamentals: people
		Reality versus myths
		Reality: Worldwatch Institute
		Reality: World Wide Fund for Nature
		Reality: Greenpeace
		Reality: wrong bad statistics and economics
		Reality: water problems
		Reality: Pimentel and global health I
		Reality: Pimentel and global health II
		Reality versus rhetoric and poor predictions
		Reality
		Reality and morality
	2    Why do we hear so much bad news?
		Research
		The file drawer and data massage
		Organizations
		The media
		Lopsided reality: sporadic but predictable
		Lopsided reality: bad news
		Lopsided reality: conflict and guilt
		The consequences
Part II: Human welfare
	3     Measuring human welfare
		How many people on earth?
		The changing demographics
		Overpopulation
	4     Life expectancy and health
		Life expectancy
		Life expectancy in the developing world
		Infant mortality
		Illness
		Conclusion
	5     Food and hunger
		Malthus and everlasting hunger
		More food than ever
		Lower prices than ever
		The Green Revolution
		Relative or absolute improvement?
		Regional distribution: Africa
		Regional distribution: China
		Conclusion
		Is inflation-adjusted GDP a reasonable measure of wealth?
	6     Prosperity
		Poverty and distribution
		Ever greater inequality?
		Poorer still?
		More consumer goods
		More education
		More leisure time
		More safety and security
		Fewer catastrophes and accidents
	7     Conclusion to Part II: unprecedented human prosperity
Part III: Can human prosperity continue?
	8     Are we living on borrowed time?
		Resources – the foundation for welfare
	9     Will we have enough food?
		At least grain per capita is declining
		Declining productivity
		Limits to yields?
		Biomass
		What about ordinary peasants?
		Do we still need the high growth?
		Grain stocks are dropping!
		What about China?
		Should we worry about erosion?
		What about fish?
		Conclusion
	10   Forests – are we losing them?
		Forests and history
		Deforestation: a general view
		Deforestation: how much?
		How much forest?
		Conclusion
	11   Energy
		We are a civilization built on energy
		Do we have enough energy to go on?
		The oil crisis
		How much oil left?
		Optimists and pessimists arguing
		Ever more oil available
		Other fossil energy sources
		Nuclear energy
		Renewable energy
		Solar energy
		Wind energy
		Storage and mobile consumption
		Conclusion
	12   Non-energy resources
		The pessimists bet on resources running out – and lost
		Falling prices
		Cement
		Aluminum
		Iron
		Copper
		Gold and silver
		Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium
		Zinc
		Other resources
		Why do we have ever more resources?
		Conclusion
	13   Water
		How much water in the world?
		The three central problems
		Not enough water?
		Will it get worse in the future?
		Will we see increased conflict?
		Conclusion
	14   Conclusion to Part III: continued prosperity
Part IV: Pollution: does it undercut human prosperity?
	15   Air pollution
		Air pollution in times past
		What is dangerous?
		Particles
		Lead
		SO2
		Ozone
		NOx
		CO
		And the developing world? Both growth and environment
		Conclusion
	16   Acid rain and forest death
	17   Indoor air pollution
		Indoor air pollution in the developing world
		Indoor air pollution in the developed world
	18   Allergies and asthma
	19   Water pollution
		Oil pollution in the oceans
		Oil in the Gulf
		Exxon Valdez: still a catastrophe?
		Pollution in coastal waters
		Suffocation in coastal waters
		Health effects from fertilizer
		Pollution in rivers
	20   Waste: running out of space?
	21   Conclusion to Part IV: the pollution burden has diminished
Part V: Tomorrow’s problems
	22   Our chemical fears
		Cancer: death
		Cancer: incidence
		1-in-8 and other lifetime risks
		The fear of pesticides
		Establishing thresholds through risk analysis
		Pesticides and cancer
		Cancer in animal experiments
		Natural and synthetic pesticides
		Synthetic estrogens
		Synthetic estrogens: a fall in sperm quality
		Organic farmers
		Synthetic estrogens: the “cocktail” effect
		Synthetic estrogens: breast cancer
		Synthetic estrogens: should we worry?
		Conclusion: should we use pesticides?
	23   Biodiversity
		How many species are there?
		Is biodiversity important?
		How many go extinct?
		The claim of 40,000 species
		A model backup
		What do we lose?
		Models and reality
		The biologists’ reaction
		Check the data
		The biologists’ response
		Conclusion: what are the consequences of seriously overstating the extinctions?
	24   Global warming
		The basic greenhouse effect
		The long-term development of the climate
		The climate, 1856–2100
		How much does CO2 affect the temperature?
		How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Particles
		How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Water vapor
		How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Clouds
		The ozone hole
		Are there other causes?
		Are the scenarios realistic?
		Are the scenarios realistic? The 40 new scenarios
		Consequences: agriculture
		Consequences: sea level rise
		Consequences: human health
		Consequences: extreme weather
		Consequences: present and future weather
		The cost of warming
		The cost of cutting CO2
		Then what should we do?
		The double dividend: improve the environment and make money?
		Objections: cut CO2 and make money
		Objections: the price of the future
		Objections: the fear of catastrophe
		Summing up
		More than meets the eye
		Conclusion: scares and sound policy
Part VI: The Real State of the World
	25   Predicament or progress?
		The Great Fable of the Litany
		The Real State of the World
		Yet we worry ever more
		Setting priorities and risks
		Weighing risks
		The costs of the Litany
		Genetically modified foods – the encapsulation of the Litany
		Caution when invoking the principle
		Continued progress
Notes
Bibliography
Index