The Roads to Congress 2020: Campaigning in the Era of Trump and COVID-19

Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Notes on Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I Congressional Campaign and Election Trends
1 The 2020 Elections Overview: A Campaign Cycle Like No Other
	Unprecedented Campaign Year
		Impeachment
		Congress Stands Divided
		What’s Good for the Goose…?
	Intraparty Battles
		Sizing Up the 2020 Elections
	Breaking Down the Roads to Congress 2020
2 The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the 2020 Elections
	Polarization and the Pandemic
	Running Amid the Coronavirus
	Election Administration During a Pandemic
	Conclusion
3 Stress Test: Three Case Studies on Vote by Mail During a Global Pandemic
	Introduction
	Literature Review
	Case Selection
		Washington
		Georgia
		Oklahoma
	Data
	Results
	Conclusion
4 Getting Good and Mad: Exploring the Use of Anger on Twitter by Female Candidates in 2020
	How Women Campaign
	Anger in Campaigns
	Data
	Findings
	Angry Tweets in 2020
	Discussion
Part II U.S. House of Representatives Case Studies
5 Southern California’s Flipped Congressional Districts: Bumpy Roads to Reelection and Defeat
	District Characteristics and Partisan Trends
	Candidates
		The Democrats
		The Republicans
	Campaign Issues and Strategy
		The Early California Primary
		Political Activities During the Pandemic
		Campaign Finance
		Voting in the Pandemic
	Election Results
	Prospects for 2022
6 Florida’s 26th and 27th Congressional Districts: No Socialists, No Communists, No Way
	Welcome to South Florida
	Florida’s 26th Congressional District: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell V. Carlos Gimenez
	The Candidates for Florida’s 26th District
		Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Democrat–Incumbent)
		Carlos Gimenez (Republican)
		Republican Primary
	Florida’s 26th District Campaign Issues
		Gimenez’s Record as Mayor
		Immigration Policy
		Personal Attacks
	Florida’s 26th District Campaign Finance
	Florida’s 26th District Election Results
	Florida’s 27th Congressional District: Donna Shalala V. Maria Elvira Salazar
	The Candidates for Florida’s 27th District
		Donna Shalala (Incumbent–Democrat)
		Maria Elvira Salazar (Republican)
	Florida’s 27th District Issues
		Healthcare Policy
		Personal Finance
		President Trump
		Charges of Socialism
	Florida’s 27th District Campaign Strategy
	Florida’s 27th District Campaign Fundraising
	Florida’s 27th District Election Results
	Analysis of the Results
	Prospects for 2022
7 New York’s 22nd Congressional District: Brindisi V. Tenney: Round Two
	About the District
		Party Balance
		Demographic Character of the District
		Rustbelt Decline
	The Candidates
		Claudia Tenney (Republican)
		Anthony Brindisi (Democrat)
	Campaign Issues
	Campaign Strategy
		Voter Mobilization
		Endorsements
		The Polls
	Campaign Finance
	Election Results
	Conclusion
8 Oklahoma’s District 5th Congressional Race: Deep Red Mobilization Defeats the Blue Wave Incumbent
	Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District
		Demographic Character of the District
		Voting, Electoral History, and Voter Registration
	The Candidates
		U.S. Representative Kendra Horn (D-Incumbent)
		State Senator Stephanie Bice (R)
	Campaign Issues
		Healthcare
		Education
	Campaign Strategy
		Finance
		Media and Positioning
	Election Results
9 Texas’s 21st–24th Congressional Districts: Texas Blues: Democrats’ Bid to Flip Texas Falls Short
	Key Races: Texas Districts 21, 22, 23, and 24
	Candidates
	Campaign Nationalization
	Gendered, Racial, and Religious Dynamics
	Change and Continuity in Texas Congressional Elections
	Trump Coattails in Tejano Texas
	Conclusion
10 Virginia’s 7th Congressional District: Birth of a Bellwether
	About the District
	The Candidates
		Abigail Spanberger (Democrat, Incumbent)
		Nick Freitas (Republican)
	Campaign Issues
	Campaign Strategy
	Campaign Finance
	Election Results
		Freitas Misses a Filing Deadline (Again)
		Are 14,000 Ballots Worth $125?
		Spanberger’s Win in Historical Context
	Conclusion
Part III U.S. Senate Case Studies
11 Alabama U.S. Senate Race: A Referendum on the Trump Presidency
	Alabama’s Political Environment
		Party Balance
		Demographics of the Electorate
		Electoral History
	The Candidates
		Doug Jones (Democrat—Incumbent)
		Roy Moore and the GOP Contenders
		Bradley Byrne (Republican)
		Jeff Sessions (Republican)
		Tommy Tuberville (Republican)
	The Results and the Runoff
	Campaign Issues
	Campaign Strategy
	Campaign Finances
	Election Results
12 Arizona U.S. Senate Race: McSally vs. Kelly—Veteran vs. Veteran, A Fight to the End
	Arizona Electorate—Demographics
	The Candidates
		Mark Kelly (Democrat)
		Martha McSally (Republican)
		Overcoming Obstacles
	Campaign Issues
		COVID-19
		Second Amendment
		Healthcare Policy
	Campaign Strategy
		The Fight for Women’s Votes: A Gendered Campaign
		Offensive Comment Controversy
	Campaign Finance
	Election Results
13 Iowa U.S. Senate Campaign: Confirmation of Party Realignment in the Hawkeye State
	The State’s Political Environment
	The Candidates
		Joni Ernst (Republican)
		Theresa Greenfield (Democrat)
	Campaign Issues
		Political Ideology
		Trump and COVID-19
		Debates
	Campaign Finance
	Campaign Strategy
	Election Results
	Past as Prologue?
14 Kansas U.S. Senate Campaign: An Open Seat, But Not Enough of an Opening for Democrats
	Setting the Stage: Kansas’s Political Environment and the Primaries
		Sam Brownback’s Experiment (2010–2018)
		Democratic Success in 2018
		The Primaries: Republicans Choose a Candidate and Democrats Choose a Republican
	The Candidates
	Campaign Issues
		Healthcare and COVID-19
		Second Amendment Issues
		National Politics: Trump, Pelosi, and the Supreme Court
	Campaign Fundraising and Strategy48
		Kansas Money and Kansas Campaigns
		Outside Groups: National Parties and Super PACs
	Election Results
	Conclusion
15 Maine U.S. Senate Race: Independent-Minded Republican Senator Susan Collins Retains Her Seat with Crossover Appeal
	Political Characteristics
	Demography and Economics
		The Candidates
			Susan Collins (Republican, Incumbent)
			Sara Gideon (Democrat)
			Minor Party Candidates
	The Democratic Primary
	Campaign Issues
		The Postal Service
		Healthcare Policy
		Climate
		President Trump
		The Ginsburg Supreme Court Vacancy
	Campaign Strategy
		Public Image
		Debates
		Advertising, Finance, and Polling
	Election Results
Part IV Roads Ahead
16 American Elections at a Crossroads: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead
	Partisan Polarization
	The Republican Party Undermines Democracy
	Divergent Campaign Strategies and Unexpected Coattails
	Nationalization and Fundraising Futility
	Trumpism is Ascendent
	Campaign Racialization
	A Clean Election
	The 117th Congress and the Roads to 2022
Index