The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves

Contents......Page 5
Prologue  When Ideas have Sex......Page 6
Mating minds......Page 9
Chapter One  A better today: the unprecedented present......Page 13
Affluence for all......Page 16
Cheap light......Page 19
Saving time......Page 20
The declaration of interdependence......Page 26
The multiplication of labour......Page 30
Self-sufficiency is poverty......Page 32
Arcadia redux......Page 33
The call of the new......Page 35
Chapter Two  The collective brain: exchange and specialisation after 200,000 years ago......Page 36
Homo dynamicus......Page 39
Starting to barter......Page 41
Hunting for gathering......Page 44
Beachcombing east......Page 47
Shall we trade?......Page 50
Ricardo’s magic trick......Page 52
Innovation networks......Page 55
Networking in the near-east......Page 58
Chapter Three  The manufacture of virtue: barter, trust and rules after 50,000 years ago......Page 60
Finding a trade buddy......Page 63
The trust juice......Page 65
The shadow of the future......Page 68
If trust makes markets work, can markets generate trust?......Page 70
Coercion is the opposite of freedom......Page 72
The corporate monster......Page 76
Commerce and creativity......Page 78
Rules and tools......Page 79
Chapter Four  The feeding of the nine billion: farming after 10,000 years ago......Page 82
No farming without trade......Page 86
Capital and metal......Page 88
Ignoble savage?......Page 90
The fertiliser revolution......Page 93
Borlaug’s genes......Page 94
Intensive farming saves nature......Page 96
Organic’s wrong call......Page 99
The many ways of modifying genes......Page 101
Chapter Five  The triumph of cities: trade after 5,000 years ago......Page 105
The ur-city......Page 106
Cotton and fish......Page 108
The flag follows trade......Page 109
The maritime revolution......Page 111
The virtue of fragmented government......Page 113
From Ganges to Tiber......Page 115
Ships of the desert......Page 116
The merchant of Pisa......Page 118
The Moloch state......Page 119
Repeal the corn laws again......Page 122
The apotheosis of the city......Page 125
Chapter Six  Escaping Malthus’s trap: population after 1200......Page 127
The medieval collapse......Page 129
The industrious revolution......Page 131
British exceptionalism......Page 133
The demographic transition......Page 134
An unexplained phenomenon......Page 138
Chapter Seven  The release of slaves: energy after 1700......Page 141
Wealthier yet and wealthier......Page 144
The metal Midlands......Page 146
Demand it and they will supply......Page 148
King coal......Page 151
Dynamo......Page 153
Heat is work and work is heat......Page 155
The mad world of biofuels......Page 158
Efficiency and demand......Page 160
Chapter Eight  The invention of invention: increasing returns after 1800......Page 162
Innovation is like a bush fire......Page 165
Driven by science?......Page 167
Capital?......Page 169
Intellectual property?......Page 172
Government?......Page 175
Exchange!......Page 176
Infinite possibility......Page 179
Chapter Nine  Turning points: pessimism after 1900......Page 182
A brief history of bad news......Page 184
Turning-point-itis......Page 187
Worse and worse......Page 189
Cancer......Page 193
Nuclear Armageddon......Page 195
Resources......Page 196
Clean air......Page 198
Genes......Page 199
Plague......Page 200
Sounding the retreat......Page 202
Chapter Ten  The two great pessimisms of today: Africa and climate after 2010......Page 203
Africa’s bottom billion......Page 205
Aid’s test......Page 206
Bound to fail?......Page 207
The world is your oyster......Page 209
Climate......Page 213
Warmer and richer or cooler and poorer?......Page 216
Saving ecosystems......Page 219
Decarbonising the economy......Page 221
Chapter Eleven  The catallaxy: rational optimism about 2100......Page 226
Onward and upward......Page 228
How good could it get?......Page 229
Notes and References......Page 233
Chapter 1......Page 234
Chapter 2......Page 240
Chapter 3......Page 247
Chapter 4......Page 252
Chapter 5......Page 260
Chapter 6......Page 265
Chapter 7......Page 268
Chapter 8......Page 273
Chapter 9......Page 278
Chapter 10......Page 284
Chapter 11......Page 292
Index......Page 294
Acknowledgements......Page 323
ALSO BY MATT RIDLEY......Page 325
Copyright......Page 326
About the Publisher......Page 327