The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact

The North Atlantic Oscillation Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact......Page 3
Copyright
......Page 4
CONTENTS......Page 5
Acknowledgments......Page 6
PREFACE......Page 7
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 9
2.1. The Mean State and Planetary Waves......Page 11
2.2. Teleconnections: The PNA and the NAO......Page 12
3.1. EOF Analysis of North Atlantic SLP......Page 15
3.2. EOF Analysis of Northern Hemisphere SLP......Page 18
4. TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE NAO......Page 20
4.1. Time Series......Page 21
4.2. Power Spectrum......Page 23
5. IMPACTS OF THE NAO......Page 24
5.1 . Surface Temperature......Page 25
5.2. Storms and Precipitation......Page 26
5.3. Ocean and Sea Ice......Page 28
5.4. Ecology......Page 30
5.5. Economy......Page 31
6. MECHANISMS......Page 32
6.1. Atmospheric Processes......Page 33
6.2. The Oceans Influence on the NAO......Page 34
7. CONCLUSIONS AND CHALLENGES......Page 37
REFERENCES......Page 38
2. DISCOVERY OF NORTH ATLANTIC TELECONNECTIONS AD 1000-1780......Page 44
4. DESCRIPTIVE CORRELATION STUDIESAD 1908-1937......Page 46
5. MODERN STUDIES......Page 50
6. THE LATE,20t h CENTURY RENAISSANCE......Page 52
7. COMMON THREADS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS......Page 53
REFERENCES......Page 54
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 58
2.1. Instrumental MSLP......Page 59
3.1. Comparison of the 'Standard' NAO Indices......Page 61
3.2. Comparison With the Paris-London Index......Page 63
4. THE INFLUENCE OF THE NAO ON EUROPEAN SURFACE CLIMATE......Page 64
REFERENCES......Page 68
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 70
2. EXTENSIONS OF THE NAO INDEX BACK IN TIME......Page 71
3. REVISITING THE SCHMUTZ ET AL. [2000]RESULTS......Page 74
4.2. Calibration and Verification Procedures......Page 77
4.3. The New Winter NAO Index Reconstruction......Page 78
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 83
REFERENCES......Page 85
Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern HemisphereAnnular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation......Page 87
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 119
2. OBSERVED SST RESPONSE PATTERN......Page 120
3.2. Heat Flux......Page 122
4.1. Response of the Wind Driven Ocean Circulation......Page 126
4.3. Response of the Ocean's Poleward Heat Transport due to Circulation Changes......Page 129
4.4. The Ocean Circulation Response in Dynamical Ocean Models......Page 130
4.5. Observational Evidence for NAO Induced Circulation Changes......Page 132
5.2. NAO Induced Water Mass Anomalies Propagating Along the Deep Western Boundary Current......Page 134
6.1. Observed NAO Induced Changes in the Subtropical Mode Water......Page 136
6.2. Observed NAO Induced Changes in the Labrador Sea Water......Page 137
6.3. Observed NAO Influence in the Nordic Seas......Page 139
7. THE SEA-ICE RESPONSE......Page 141
8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION......Page 144
REFERENCES......Page 147
INTRODUCTION......Page 152
2. THE CLIMATE NOISE PARADIGM......Page 155
3.1. The Reduced Thermal Damping Argument......Page 156
3.2. Mechanisms of SST Feedback in Middle Latitudes......Page 159
3.3. Mechanisms of SST Feedback in the Tropics......Page 161
3.4. SST Impact on NAO in Observations......Page 162
4.1. NAO/Ocean Circulation Interaction at the Intergyre Boundary......Page 164
4.2. NAO/Ocean Circulation Interaction on a Basin-Scale......Page 167
4.3. Summary......Page 169
5. ASSESSING THE RELEVANCE OF COUPLED PROCESSES TO NAO VARIABILITY......Page 171
REFERENCES......Page 173
1.1. What do we Mean by "Predictability"?......Page 178
2. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF REAL PREDICTABILITY......Page 179
3. ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVIDENCE OF POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY......Page 180
4. COUPLED MODEL EVIDENCE OF REAL PREDICTABILITY......Page 184
5.2. The Role of North Atlantic SST Equator to 70°N, 1948-1998......Page 185
5.3. North Atlantic SST: The Longer Record......Page 190
6.1. A Solar Effect on the NAO?......Page 191
7. USEFUL PREDICTABILITY......Page 192
8. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION......Page 194
REFERENCES......Page 195
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 198
2. OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NAO......Page 199
3.1.1. Coupled model results......Page 202
3.1.2.2. Sea surface temperature modulated changes......Page 206
3.2. Tropospheric Aerosols......Page 207
3.4. Volcanic Activity......Page 208
3.5. Solar Forcing......Page 209
4. SUMMARY......Page 210
REFERENCES......Page 212
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 215
2.1. Background......Page 216
2.2. Relationship with NAO......Page 217
3.2. Relationship with NAO......Page 221
4. BENTHOS......Page 224
5.1. Atlantic Cod Gadus morhua L......Page 225
5.3. Tuna and Other Large Pelagics......Page 228
5.4. Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar......Page 229
6. MARINE DISEASES......Page 230
8. SEABIRDS......Page 231
9. SUMMARY......Page 232
REFERENCES......Page 233
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 239
2.1.1. Phenology.......Page 240
2.1.3. Agricultural crops.......Page 245
2.4. Birds......Page 246
2.4.4. Sympatric populations of flycatchers.......Page 248
2.5.1. Red deer on the west coast of Norway.......Page 249
2.5.2. Sex ratios of red deer.......Page 250
2.5.3. Comparing red deer and domestic sheep in Norway.......Page 251
2.5.5. Soay sheep in the St. Kilda archipelago, Scotland.......Page 252
2.5.6. Other herbivore and granivore populations.......Page 253
2.5.7. Mammalian carnivores.......Page 254
3.1. Biases in the Literature......Page 256
3.4. Long Term Effects and Migration......Page 257
3.6. Delayed Effects Through Cohort Effects......Page 258
4. FUTURE CHALLENGES......Page 259
4.2. Capturing the Ecology of Climate Fluctuations: Which NAO Index to use?......Page 260
REFERENCES......Page 261
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 267
2.1. Lake Temperatures......Page 268
2.2. Lake Ice Cover......Page 270
3. CHEMICAL RESPONSES......Page 272
4.1. Phytoplankton......Page 273
4.2. Zoopiankton......Page 274
4.3. Zoobenthos......Page 275
5.2 Food Web Interactions......Page 276
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 279
REFERENCES......Page 280