The MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative

Foreword
Acknowledgments
Introduction
	Framing the Issue
	Scope of the Study
	Water Rights Conflict
	The White House to the Rescue
	Format
Contents
About the Author
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I The Conflict, Murmurs of War, and Response
1 Conflict in the Nile Basin
	The Problem
	The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
	Issues of Contention
	Declaration to Build the Dam
	The Context
		Historical Commitment
	Historical Impediments
		Political Instability in Ethiopia
			Drought and Famine
			Economic Hardships
			Colonial Treaties
		Political Instability in Egypt
		GERD Technical Aspects
		Value-Based Conflicts
			Dam as a Political Project
			Rights
			Risks
			Equity
			Efficiency
			Benefits Versus Costs
		Substantive Issues of Contention
			Issue 1—Ethiopia’s Unilateral Decision vs. Legal Covenants
			Issue 2—Negative Externalities?
			Issue 3—Filling and Operation of the Dam
	References
2 Murmurs of War
	Significance of the Nile
		Invasions
		Romanticized
		Governance
	Politicization of the Nile
		19th Century: First Critical Juncture
		20th Century: Second Critical Juncture
	Creation of the Nile Basin Initiative
		History of NBI Formation
			Goals and Objectives
			The Structure
		NBI and Water Security Goal
	GERD Ignites Conflict
	References
3 The Response
	The NBI and Its Limitations
		Efficacy of Water Institutions
		Successes and Limitations
			Structure
			Governance
			Processes
	CFA and Its Limitations
		Treaty Ratification
		Permanent Institutions
		Water Security
		Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
			Adaptability
		Pluralistic Decision-Making
			International Panel of Experts
			Mediation-1: The Declaration of Principles
			Mediation-2: Trump’s Deal or No Deal?
			Twists and Turns
		Regional “Capillarity Effect”
			The MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative
			Regional Subsystem
	Summary
	References
4 Lessons Learned
	Introduction
	Strengths
		Institutional
		Policy
			Evidence-Based Policy-Making
			Policy Styles and Problem-Solving Approaches
			Policy Instruments
		Diplomatic
	Weaknesses
		Institutional
		Policy
			Diplomacy
	Collective Action Problem: Strength or Weakness?
	The Tragedy of the Commons: Strength or Weakness?
	References
Part II Navigating Solutions Through Theoretical Lenses
5 Theoretical Solutions
	Introduction
	Prospect Theory
		Losses, Gains, and Other Premises
		Collective Action Theory
		Cross-Cultural Communication Theory
		Intergroup Contact Theory (Contact Hypothesis)
		Pareto-Improvement Principle
	References
Part III Short-Term Solutions
6 Ideal Third-Party Mediation
	Introduction
	Competencies
		Understanding the Context
			Negotiating Context
			External Factors
			Political Stressors
			Social Stressors
		Framing the Problem
		Experience
		Pragmatic Strategies
		Distributive Strategy
		Elicited/Integrative
		Transformational Strategy
		Duress-Free Mediation
	Outcomes That Last
	Compliance
	Client Satisfaction
	Summary
	References
7 Bilateral Agreements and Litigations
	Introduction
	Bilateral Treaties
	Summary
	Litigation
	Litigation Limitations
	Summary
	References
Part IV Long-Term Solutions
8 Renegotiate, Partition, Apportion the Waters, and Contextualize Negotiation
	Introduction
	Renegotiate the CFA
	Conditions to Renegotiate
		Renegotiation Costs: Constraints and Solutions
	Lessons for Egypt
	Partitioning the Nile Basin
		Free-Rider
		Defection and Group Size
	The Upper Nile Basin (UNB)
	The Lower Nile Basin (LNB)
	Apportioning the Nile Waters
		Allocating Water Quotas
	Contextualized Negotiation Model (CNM)
		Uniqueness
	References
Part V Policy Recommendations and Conclusions
9 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions
	Policy Recommendations: Implications for Egypt and Ethiopia
		Going to War (Deploy “Hard Power”)
		Mitigating Water Rights Conflicts
		Resolving Water Rights Conflicts
	Policy Recommendations: Implications for the Nile Basin
	References
Conclusions
What Lack of Agreement Means for the Actors
Alternatives for Egypt
Implications for the MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative
Regional Security
Appendix 1a
Timeline of Events—GERD Project
Appendix 1b
Timeline of Events—Negotiations
References
Index