The Logical Thinking Process: a Systems Approach to Complex Problem Solving

Content: Preface --
Acknowledgments --
Introduction --
The Destination --
Introduction to the Theory of Constraints --
Systems and \"Profound Knowledge\" --
The System\'s Goal --
The Manager\'s Role --
Who Is a Manager? --
What Is the Goal? --
Goal, Critical Success Factor, or Necessary Condition? --
The Concept of System Constraints --
Systems as Chains --
The \"Weakest Link\" --
Constraints and Nonconstraints --
A Production Example --
Relation of Constraints to Quality Improvement --
Change and the Theory of Constraints --
TOC Principles --
Systems as Chains --
Local vs. System Optima --
Cause and Effect --
Undesirable Effects and Core Problems --
Solution Deterioration --
Physical vs. Policy Constraints --
Ideas Are NOT Solutions --
The Five Focusing Steps of TOC --
1. Identify the System Constraint --
2. Decide How to Exploit the Constraint --
3. Subordinate Everything Else --
4. Elevate the Constraint. 5. Go Back to Step 1, but Avoid Inertia --
Throughput, Inventory, and Operating Expense --
Throughput (T) --
Inventory/Investment (I) --
Operating Expense (OE) --
Which Is Most Important: T, I, or OE? --
T, I, and OE: An Example --
T, I, and OE in Not-for-Profit Organizations --
Universal Measures of Value --
Passive Inventory --
Active Inventory (Investment) --
Managing T Through Undesirable Effects --
The TOC Paradigm --
Applications and Tools --
The Strategic Intermediate Objectives Map --
The Current Reality Tree --
The \"Evaporating Cloud\" (Conflict Resolution Diagram) --
The Future Reality Tree --
The Prerequisite Tree --
The Transition Tree --
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation --
The Logical Tools as a Complete \"Thinking Process\" --
Figure 1.19: The Five Logical Tools as an Integrated Thinking Process --
Categories of Legitimate Reservation --
Definition --
Purpose --
Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
Description of the Categories of Legitimate Reservation --
1. Clarity --
Why Clarity Comes First --
What Clarity Means --
2. Entity Existence --
Completeness --
Structure --
Validity --
3. Causality Existence --
4. Cause Insufficiency --
The Ellipse Relative Magnitude of Dependent Causes --
How Many Arrows? --
The Concept of \"Oxygen\" --
5. Additional Cause --
Magnitude --
Test --
A Unique Variation of Additional Cause --
6. Cause-Effect Reversal --
The \"Fishing Is Good\" Example --
The Statistical Example --
The Medical Example --
Test. 7. Predicted Effect Existence --
Conflict or Differences in Magnitude? --
Tangible or Intangible? --
Verbalizing Predicted Effect Existence --
8. Tautology --
Baseball Example --
Vampire Example --
Test --
Using the CLR in a Group --
CLR Known by All --
CLR Known Only by the Tree-Builder --
Sufficiency-Based vs. Necessity-Based Logic Trees --
Symbols and Logic Tree Conventions --
Three Reasons to Standardize --
Credibility --
Ergonomics --
Miscommunication of Logic --
A Standard Symbol Set --
A Standard Convention for Logical Connections --
Summary --
Figure 2.36: Categories of Legitimate Reservation: Self-Scrutiny Checklist --
Intermediate Objectives Map --
Definition --
Purpose --
Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
System Boundaries, Span of Control, and Sphere of Influence --
Span of Control --
Sphere of Influence --
The External Environment --
Control Versus Influence --
Doing the Right Things vs. Doing Things Right --
The Goal --
Who Sets the Goal? --
Critical Success Factors and Necessary Conditions --
Description of the Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map --
Strategic Application --
A Hierarchy of Systems --
IO Maps Are Unique --
Characteristics of the IO Map --
Examples of Strategic Intermediate Objectives Maps --
Process-Level IO Map --
System-Level IO Map --
How to Construct an Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map --
1. Define the System --
2. Determine the System Goal. 3. Determine the Critical Success Factors --
4. Determine the Key Necessary Conditions --
5. Arrange the IO Map Components --
6. Connect the Goal, Critical Success Factors, and Necessary Conditions --
7. Verify the Connections --
The \"10,000-Foot Test.\" 8. Enlist Outside Scrutiny of the Entire IO Map --
Summary and Conclusion --
Figure 3.14: How to Construct an Intermediate Objectives Map --
(Abbreviated Checklist) --
Figure 3.15: Example: A Real-World IO Map --
PART_TWO: Gap Analysis and Correction --
Current Reality Tree --
Definition --
Purpose --
Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
Description of the Current Reality Tree (CRT) --
A Single Tool or Part of a Set --
Span of Control and Sphere of Influence --
Correlation vs. Cause and Effect --
Predicting Rain in Siberia: A Simple Example of Correlation --
Fibromyalgia and Myfascial Pain: A Complex Real-World Example --
Undesirable Effects --
Undesirable by What Standard? --
How to Identify and Check for Undesirability --
Existence in Reality --
Why the Emphasis on UDEs? --
Root Causes --
Core Problems and Root Causes --
The \"70 percent\" Criterion --
Inability to Act on a Core Problem --
A Solution to the Core Problem Conundrum --
Critical Root Cause: A Definition --
Main Body of the CRT --
Archetypical CRTs --
Depicting a Current Reality Tree --
Entities --
Entities in a Current Reality Tree --
Arrows --
Underlying Assumptions --
Ellipses, Magnitudinal ANDs, and Exclusive ORs --
Ellipses --
Magnitudinal ANDs --
Exclusive ORs --
Variations on a Theme --
Numbering Entities in a Tree --
The Most Common Logical Errors in a Sufficiency Tree --
Clarity in the Arrow --
Don\'t Induce Confusion --
Don\'t Miss Opportunities to Break the Chain of Cause and Effect. Cause Insufficiency --
The Concept of \"Oxygen\" Revisited --
Entity Existence --
Reading a Current Reality Tree --
Negative Reinforcing Loops --
Reading a Negative Reinforcing Loop --
How to Construct a Current Reality Tree --
Gather Materials --
1. Define the System to be Modeled --
2. Determine the Undesirable Effects --
Compare Reality with Benchmarks of System Success --
Create a Starting Matrix --
3. Determine the First Two Levels of Causality --
Transfer UDEs and Causes to Post-It Notes --
4. Begin the Current Reality Tree --
5. Improve the Logic of the Initial Clusters --
6. Identify Possible Additional Causes --
Two Criteria for Additional Causes --
7. Look for Lateral Connections --
8. Build the Cause-and-Effect Chains Downward --
9. Scrutinize the Entire Current Reality Tree. 10. Decide Which Root Causes to Attack --
Scrutinizing the Current Reality Tree --
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation --
Techniques for \"Shortstopping\" Logical Challenges --
When \"All\" or \"None\" Are Not Acceptable --
Inclusive and Exclusive --
Qualifying Words --
Too Many Arrows? --
Simple Logical Aid #1: Means, Method, and Motivation --
Simple Logical Aid #2: The Syllogism --
Using the CRT with Other Parts of the Thinking Process --
The Current Reality Tree and the Evaporating Cloud --
The Current Reality Tree and the Future Reality Tree --
Summary --
Figure 4.45: Procedures for Constructing a Current Reality Tree (CRT): Abbreviated Checklist --
Figure 4.46: Current Reality Tree: Fordyce Corporation --
Evaporating Cloud --
Definition --
Purpose --
Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
Description of the Evaporating Cloud --
The Nature of Conflict --
Conflict Is Not Always Obvious --
Two Types of Conflict --
Opposite Conditions --
Different Alternatives --
Compromise, \"Win-Lose,\" or \"Win-Win\"? --
Compromise --
Win-Lose --
Win-Win --
An Indication of Hidden Conflict --
\"Breakthrough Solutions\" --
Elements of the Evaporating Cloud --
Symbology --
Objective --
Requirements --
Prerequisites --
How the Evaporating Cloud Relates to the Current Reality Tree --
Why Do Root Causes of Undesirable Effects Exist? --
Policies and Constraints --
Policy Constraints: A Source of Conflict --
Conflict is Usually Embedded in the CRT --
Assumptions --
Invalid Assumptions. Some Assumptions Can Be Invalidated --
\"Win-Win\" vs. \"Win-Lose\" --
Five Potential \"Break\" Points --
Invalid Assumptions: An Example --
Injections: The Role of Invalid Assumptions --
How Are Injections Related to Assumptions? --
Injections: Actions or Conditions? --
\"Silver Bullets\" --
Creating \"Breakthrough\" Ideas to Resolve Conflict --
All Arrows Are Fair Game --
Is the Idea Feasible? --
Reading an Evaporating Cloud --
Verbalizing Assumptions --
What to Remember About Evaporating Clouds --
How to Construct An Evaporating Cloud --
A Nine-Step Path to Conflict Resolution. 1. Construct a Blank Evaporating Cloud --
2. Articulate the Conflicting \"Wants\" of Each Side --
3. Determine the \"Needs\" of Each Side --
The \"Easy Way\" to Articulate Requirements --
4. Formulate the Objective --
Why Use an Intermediate Objectives Map? --
5. Evaluate the Relationship --
6. Develop Underlying Assumptions --
Extreme Wording --
7. Evaluate Assumptions --
8. Create Injections --
9. Select the Best Injection(s) --
Scrutinizing An Evaporating Cloud --
Reflection of Current Reality --
Perception --
Summary --
Figure 5.32: Procedures for Constructing an Evaporating Cloud --
Abbreviated Checklist --
Figure 5.33: Evaporating Cloud: Master Blank Form --
Figure 5.34: Evaporating Cloud: Wurtzburg Corporation --
Part_three: Executing Change --
Future Reality Tree --
Definition --
Purpose --
Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
Description of the Future Reality Tree --
A Real-World Example --
A Framework for Change --
Negative Branches --
Positive Reinforcing Loops --
Future Reality Tree Symbology --
Injections --
Injections: Actions or Conditions? --
The Risk of Actions as Injections --
Build Upward, from Injections to Desired Effects --
Example: Building a House --
Multiple Injections: The \"Silver Bullet\" Fallacy --
Where Injections Come From --
The Future Reality Tree and Other Thinking Process Trees --
The Future Reality Tree and the Current Reality Tree --
The Logical Structure of Reality, Current and Future. The Future Reality Tree and the Evaporating Cloud --
The Future Reality Tree and the Prerequisite Tree --
The Future Reality Tree as a \"Safety Net\" --
Negative Branches --
Using the Negative Branch as a \"Stand-Alone\" --
Added Realities --
Assumptions --
\"Trimming\" Negative Branches --
When to Raise Negative Branch Reservations --
Positive Reinforcing Loops --
Strategic Planning with a Future Reality Tree --
How to Construct a Future Reality Tree --
1. Gather All Necessary Information and Materials --
2. Formulate the Desired Effects --
Positive, Not Neutral --
Use Present Tense --
Lay Out Desired Effects --
3. Add the Injection(s) and Evaporating Cloud Requirements --
Where Do We Find Injections? --
Injections at the Bottom --
4. Fill in the Gaps --
Build Upward --
Continue Building from the Expected Effects --
5. Build in Positive Reinforcing Loops --
6. Look for Negative Branches --
7. Develop Negative Branches --
8. Trim Negative Branches --
9. Incorporate the \"Branch-Trimming\" --
Injection into the FRT --
10. Scrutinize the Entire FRT --
Scrutinizing a Future Reality Tree --
Existence Reservations --
Additional Cause --
Scrutinizing Injections --
\"Oxygen\" --
Summary --
Figure 6.27: Procedures for Constructing a Future Reality Tree --
Figure 6.28: Using the Negative Branch as a Stand-Alone Tool --
Figure 6.29: Future Reality Tree Example: Fordyce Corporation --
Prerequisite and Transition Trees --
A Consolidation of Two Trees --
Definition --
Purpose. Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
Description of the Prerequisite Tree --
Necessity vs. Sufficiency --
Depicting a Prerequisite Tree --
The Objective --
Intermediate Objectives --
Different Alternatives --
Not Always a One-to-One Relationship --
Obstacles --
Overcome, Not Obliterate --
Enlist Assistance to Identify Obstacles --
A Single Tool or Part of a Set --
Intermediate Objectives : Actions or Conditions? --
Obstacles : Always Conditions --
Sequence Dependency --
Parallelism --
Reading a Prerequisite Tree --
Top to Bottom --
Bottom to Top --
How to Construct a Prerequisite Tree --
1. Determine the Objective --
2. Identify All Intermediate Objectives --
3. Surface All Possible Obstacles --
4. Organize the Intermediate Objectives and Obstacles --
5. Sequence the Intermediate Objectives Within Each Branch --
6. Connect the Intermediate Objectives --
7. Overcome the Obstacles --
8. Integrate the Branches --
9. Connect the Main Body of the Tree to the Objective --
10. Scrutinize the Entire Tree --
Scrutinizing a Prerequisite Tree --
Entity Existence --
Cause Sufficiency --
Additional Cause --
The IO-Obstacle Validity Test --
The Transition Tree --
A Little History --
Prerequisite Tree and Transition Tree: Original Concept --
Transition Tree Structure --
The Five-Element Transition Tree --
In Search of Robust Execution --
Managing Change as a Project --
Critical Chain Project Management --
What Critcal Chain Project Management Does. What Critcal Chain Project Management Requires --
A Three-Phase Change Management Framework --
Summary --
Figure 7.31: Procedures for Constructing a Prerequisite Tree --
Figure 7.32: Prerequisite Tree Self-Scrutiny Checklist --
Figure 7.33 Prerequisite Tree: Conference Planning and Management --
Changing the Status Quo --
Purpose --
Assumptions --
How to Use This Chapter --
The Key to System Improvement --
The Elements of System Improvement --
Reinforcement --
Human Behavior --
Active Resistance --
Passive Resistance --
Is Behavior Logical? --
Changing Minds, or Changing Behavior? --
Why Do People Resist Change? --
Maslow --
Herzberg --
McClelland --
Adams --
Anaclitic Depression Blues --
Security or Satisfaction? --
The Impact on Solutions --
Leadership --
Leadership Is About People --
Leadership and the Blitzkrieg --
Mutual Trust --
Personal Professional Skill --
Moral Contract --
Focus --
Level 5 Leadership --
Leadership and Behavior --
The Leader\'s Behavior --
Subordinates\' Behavior --
Creating and Sustaining Desired Behaviors --
Behavior Change is a Leadership Function --
A Behavioral Approach to Change --
Rewards or Reinforcement? --
A General Strategy for Implementing Change --
A Common Scenario --
Assumptions --
How Change \"Gets In\" --
The Leader as Change Agent-in-Chief --
A Model for Implementing Change --
1. Leader Commitment --
2. Modified Behavior Defined --
3. Mission/Task Charter Communicated --
4. Leader Commitment Demonstrated. 5. Subordinate Commitment --
6. Performance Management Process --
A Last Thought about Ensuring Effective Change --
Summary --
Appendices_ --
Appendix A: Strategic Intermediate Objectives Map --
Appendix B: Executive Summary Trees --
Appendix C: Current Reality Tree Exercise --
Appendix D: Evaporating Cloud Exercise --
Appendix E: The Three-Ude Cloud --
Appendix F: The Challenger Conflict --
Appendix G: Correlation Versus Cause and Effect --
Appendix H: Theories of Motivation --
Appendix I: Legal Application of the Thinking Process --
Appendix J: Transformation Logic Tree Software --
Epilogue --
Bibliography --
Index.