The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters

Cover
Half Title
Book Title
Copyright
Table of Contents
List of illustrations
	Tables
	Boxes
Preface: revisiting an old problem—new concerns, new remedies
	Notes
	Bibliography
1 Maybe it’s time for something different
	An insider’s perspective on the problem
	The logic of intelligence analysis: back to basics
	Some special challenges for alternative hypothesis testing
	The case for alternative methodology testing
	Chances for change?
	Notes
	Bibliography
2 Strengthening intelligence threat analysis
	Alternative analysis
	Falling short of potential
	Accepting the conventional wisdom
	Enhanced analytic techniques
	Technique one: prudently stretch analytic imagination by testing many hypotheses
	Technique two: independently check source vetting to better detect deception
	Technique three: systematically assess missing data to better determine validity and detect foreign denial
	Technique four: make a common sense start with a zero-based review of a dominant view’s evidence and reasoning
	Putting the techniques together: a coherent process to assess and predict threats
	Notes
	Bibliography
3 Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis: a case study illustration
	A hypothetical case study to show how enhanced analytic techniques can be used
	The zero-based review in the hypothetical scenario
	A dominant view’s data support: what a zero-based review can show
	The new inconsistency test in the hypothetical scenario
	The missing data test in the hypothetical scenario
	Taking it from here
	Notes
	Bibliography
4 I got algorithm: can there be a Nate Silver in intelligence?
	Eight challenges for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool
	Judging the prospects for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool
	The heart of the matter: improving intelligence prediction
	Are practical steps enough to improve prediction or is computer help needed?
	Notes
	Bibliography
Index