The Future of the Greek Economy: Economic Development Through 2035

Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Introduction
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I Alternative Futures Analysis
1 Setting the Scenery: Factors Affecting the Future
	1.1 Introduction
	1.2 Tales from the Past Shaping the Future: Theory, Economic Crises, and Political Behaviors
		1.2.1 Theory
		1.2.2 The Recent Economic Crises and Political Behaviors
	1.3 Connecting the Present with the Future: The Megatrends
	1.4 Conclusions: Use of History, Scenario Building, and Foresight
	References
2 Building Scenarios: The Four Economic Scenarios for Greek Alternative Economic Futures
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 Step-By-Step Scenario Building: Theoretical and Practical Guide
	2.3 The Oxford Global Economic Model (GEM) and Details for the Scenarios' Projections
	2.4 The Two Versions of the Growth Scenario
	2.5 The Three Scenarios Left: The Unsustainable Growth, the Transformation, and the Falldown
	2.6 A Scenarios' Summary and Some Insights
	References
3 Scenarios and Contextual Factors: Addressing the Implications
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Culture: An Indicator for the Future
	3.3 Handling Uncertainty: Myopic or Forward-Looking Expectations?
	3.4 In Place of Conclusions: Is There a Prevailing Scenario?
	References
Part II The Past and the Present of the Greek economy
4 Sustainable Development
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 The Evolution of Population and the Aging Problem
	4.3 Environment Protection and the Ecological Footprint
	4.4 Renewable Energy as a Source of Sustainable Development
	4.5 The Rich Natural Resources of Greece
	References
5 Sustainable Governance
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 The Evolution of Governance Indicators: Divergence and Convergence During the Last Two Decades
	5.3 The Improvement of Corruptions Perceptions During the Crisis of 2008
	5.4 The Recrudescence of Economic Freedom
	5.5 Confronting Terrorism and Money Laundering
	Reference
6 Inclusive Growth
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Labor Market Conditions and Inclusivity
	6.3 Participating in Education and Educational Quality
	6.4 Personal Finance: Disposable Income and Household Conditions
	6.5 People at Risk of Poverty and Social Protection Expenditure
	6.6 Inequality, Material, and Social Deprivation in the Greek Economy
	6.7 Health, Infant Mortality, and Healthcare Expenditure 
	References
7 Cultural Change and Development and Growth
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 How Greeks Judge the Current Situation
	7.3 Expectations about the Next 12 Months in the Greek Economy
	7.4 The Low Institutional Trust in the Greek Society
	7.5 Insecurity Hypothesis and Post-Materialism
	References
8 The Dynamism of the Economy
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 The Output Gap of the Greek Economy
	8.3 The External Sector: Exports, Imports, and Current Account Balance
	8.4 The Neuralgic Role of Consumption
	8.5 Private vs. Public Investments and the FDIs
	8.6 The Unsatisfactory Return of Savings
	8.7 The Troubled Housing Market
	8.8 PMI and Production in Manufacturing
	8.9 Public Deficits, Debt, Revenues, and Expenditures in the Greek economy
	8.10 Labor Productivity Growth
	Reference
Part III Alternative Futures for Greece: The Five Scenarios Under the Five Pillars of Economic Development
9 Alternative Economic Futures and Sustainable Development
	9.1 introduction
	9.2 Population Dynamics: The Aging Problem in the Future
	9.3 Environmental Issues as a Cornerstone
	9.4 Renewable Energy Sources are the Key to Sustainable Development
	References
10 Sustainable Governance and Alternative Economic Futures
	10.1 Introduction
	10.2 The Future of the Greek Governance Indicators
	10.3 Corruptions Perceptions: A Way to a “Cleaner” Economy
	10.4 Is There a Chance for a Μore Free Economy?
	References
11 The Impact of Alternative Economic Futures on Inclusive Growth
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Labor Market Conditions and the Greek Economy in the Future
	11.3 Human Capital and Education: Qualitative Characteristics
	11.4 Household Conditions Under Different Scenarios
	11.5 Poverty and Inequalities in the Greek Economy’s Future
	11.6 Inclusiveness and the Health of the Greeks
	References
12 Cultural Change and Alternative Futures
	12.1 Introduction
	12.2 How Are Greeks About to Judge Their Current Situation in the Future
	12.3 The Formation of Expectations in the Future
	12.4 Trust in European and Government Institutions
	References
13 The Dynamism of the Economy and the Alternative Futures
	13.1 Introduction
	13.2 How Far from the Potential Output Will the Greek Economy Be in the Future?
	13.3 The Greek External Sector in the Future
	13.4 The Consumption-Based Greek Model
	13.5 Investments as a Key for the Future Outcomes
	13.6 The Future of Housing in the Greek Economy
	13.7 Manufacturing Production and Challenges
	13.8 Public Economics and Alternative Futures
	13.9 Productivity up to 2035
	References
Index