The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 6
List of figures......Page 12
List of tables......Page 13
About the author......Page 14
The five futures glasses as a mental map for futures......Page 16
The goals of this book......Page 19
What can this book do and what can't it do?......Page 21
Remarks......Page 22
Man's motives for foresight......Page 23
From futures research to future management......Page 25
The importance of future management......Page 26
Goals and fruits of future management......Page 29
Futures confusions......Page 30
Goals confusion......Page 32
Role confusion......Page 37
Method confusion......Page 40
What is required in practice......Page 42
A map of futures......Page 44
Futures, not future......Page 45
Types of futures......Page 46
How imaginable are futures?......Page 47
How probable are futures?......Page 48
How creatable are futures?......Page 51
How desirable are futures?......Page 54
From futures to futures glasses......Page 56
How you can easily remember the five futures glasses......Page 59
An overview of the five futures glasses......Page 61
4 Your blue futures glasses: What lies ahead?......Page 64
Your blue futures glasses: Overview......Page 65
Case studies on the blue futures glasses......Page 67
You firm up the basis of your decisions and strategies......Page 73
You improve your orientation and security......Page 74
You better understand what is happening today......Page 75
You form attractors for knowledge about the future......Page 76
Core concepts of the blue futures glasses......Page 77
Assumption questions......Page 78
Future factors......Page 79
Signals......Page 81
Future projections......Page 82
Assumptions about the future......Page 84
Assume the future to be largely unpredictable......Page 86
Direct the blue futures glasses towards your environment......Page 88
Adopt a realistic and conservative attitude......Page 89
You cannot carry out a complete assumption analysis......Page 90
Use assumptions about the future as a replacement for impossible future "knowledge"......Page 91
You cannot delegate your assumptions about the future......Page 92
Improve your assumptions about the future by being affected personally......Page 93
Improve your assumptions about the future through a wide base of support......Page 94
Procedure for companies......Page 96
Procedure for life entrepreneurs......Page 99
Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 100
5 Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you?......Page 102
Your red futures glasses: Overview......Page 103
Case studies on the red futures glasses......Page 105
You make the future easier to think about, handle and communicate about uncertainty......Page 110
You can see more of the possible future and are therefore less surprised by the future......Page 111
You protect yourself and your futures strategy......Page 112
You perceive more future opportunities......Page 115
Core concepts of the red futures glasses......Page 116
Surprise questions......Page 117
Surprises......Page 118
Direct the red futures glasses to your environment......Page 122
Look for improbabilities......Page 123
Spread possible stress more evenly in future......Page 124
Don't expect orientation from surprises......Page 125
Look for plausible surprises......Page 126
The number of possible surprises is increasing......Page 127
The relevance comes from the potential effects......Page 128
See your vulnerabilities in flexibility sacrifices......Page 129
Stake out the area of possibilities with extremes......Page 131
Reduce the effect of filters and barriers......Page 132
Arrange for insider and outsider knowledge......Page 133
Take a pragmatic approach in the scenarios......Page 134
Methodology checklists......Page 135
Procedure for companies......Page 136
Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 140
6 Your green futures glasses: Which future opportunities do you have?......Page 142
Your green futures glasses: Overview......Page 143
Case studies on the green futures glasses......Page 144
You can see more of the possible future......Page 148
You increase your probability of success......Page 149
You have a better view of what the competition could do......Page 150
You can better handle future developments......Page 151
Core concepts of the green futures glasses......Page 152
Opportunity questions......Page 153
Future opportunities......Page 154
Use future opportunities to form the basis for your competitiveness......Page 156
Look through the green futures glasses with the eyes of a beginner......Page 157
Prohibit any form of criticism with the green futures glasses......Page 158
Look for opportunities at an early stage......Page 159
Big opportunities hold big risks and vice-versa......Page 160
Don't look for opportunities that are completely new to the world......Page 161
Recognize the danger of not seizing opportunities......Page 162
Be more honorable than the "fast followers"......Page 163
You can only determine the value of an opportunity imprecisely......Page 164
Carefully select which future opportunities you want to leave to the competition......Page 165
Foster modest and sensible expectations......Page 166
Procedure for companies......Page 167
Procedure for life entrepreneurs......Page 172
Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 173
7 Your yellow futures glasses: Which future do you want to form?......Page 175
Your yellow futures glasses: Overview......Page 177
Case studies on the yellow futures glasses......Page 179
You can manage your company as a complex adaptive system more easily......Page 185
You provide orientation for yourself and your team......Page 186
You determine and form the future you want to have......Page 187
You activate your performance potential......Page 188
You decide more easily what is important and right......Page 189
You impart confidence in difficult times......Page 190
You become more successful overall......Page 191
Vision questions......Page 192
Strategic vision (vision elements)......Page 193
Mission (mission elements)......Page 194
Attitude and principles of the yellow futures glasses......Page 195
Benefit from self-fulfillment......Page 196
Develop the strategic vision from future opportunities......Page 197
You can live without a vision, your company cannot......Page 198
Design your vision as a picture......Page 199
Developing your vision is your task, not someone else's......Page 200
Believe in self-responsibility......Page 202
Believe that the future can be deliberately created......Page 204
Ignite and promote passion for the vision......Page 205
Strengthen the joint vision through coherence of the individual visions......Page 206
Form harmony with the whole......Page 208
See a homeopathic amount of challenge as ideal......Page 209
Orient your vision on achievable competences and resources......Page 212
Don't overload your customers with innovations......Page 213
Make your vision as precise as necessary, as complex as required and as flexible as possible......Page 214
Form the necessary differentiation with vision candidates......Page 215
The higher the organizational level, the more general your results for the yellow futures glasses will be......Page 217
What is decisive is not the achievement of your vision, but its effect on the present......Page 218
Procedure for companies......Page 219
Procedure for life entrepreneurs......Page 222
Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 225
8 Your violet futures glasses: What are you planning to do?......Page 227
Your violet futures glasses: Overview......Page 228
Case studies on the violet futures glasses......Page 229
Purpose of the violet futures glasses......Page 232
You increase the probability and degree of your success......Page 233
Core concepts of the violet futures glasses......Page 234
Strategy and futures strategy......Page 235
Strategic goals......Page 237
Additional core concepts......Page 238
Backcast based on your vision......Page 239
Be clear about the goals......Page 240
First think of the strategy and then the structure......Page 241
Balance efficiency and flexibility......Page 242
Maximize the congruence of individual and common goals......Page 243
Goals and strategies need to be important to your subconscious mind, less so to your conscious mind......Page 244
Make your futures strategy robust......Page 245
Choose one of seven types of eventual strategy......Page 246
Procedure for companies......Page 249
Checklist of methods and techniques......Page 252
Process model and object model......Page 254
The core concepts of the Eltville Model......Page 255
Organize your thoughts......Page 256
Gain more insight from newspapers, books, lectures and films......Page 258
Organize your toolbox......Page 259
Make more of your future......Page 260
Core concepts of the Eltville Model......Page 261
Notes......Page 265
Bibliography......Page 270
Index......Page 276