The Energy Sector and Energy Geopolitics in the MENA Region at a Crossroad: Towards a Great Transformation? (Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region)

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Contents
About the Authors
Part I Context and Drivers for the Regional Energy Transformation
1 The MENA Region: An Economic, Energy, and Historical Context
	1.1 Demography
	1.2 Economy
	1.3 Energy
	1.4 History
	Bibliography
2 Domestic and International Drivers and Challenges for the Energy Transformation in the MENA Region
	2.1 The Role of Oil Rents: Economic Dependence
	2.2 The Prevalence of the Public Sector and Cheap Labor
	2.3 Energy Subsidies: A Pervasive and Unsustainable Role
	2.4 Growing Domestic Energy Demand and Water-Energy Nexus
	2.5 Rentier State and Governance: The Consolidation of Rulers
	2.6 External Drivers and Challenges
		2.6.1 The International Climate Policy and Regime
		2.6.2 The MENA Region, Climate Change and Policy: The Domestic Dimension
		2.6.3 Oil and Natural Gas Demand in a Decarbonized World: Peak Demand for Oil and More Pressure for Natural Gas
	Bibliography
Part II The Energy Sector in the MENA Region at a Crossroad
3 National Energy Sectors: Historical Evolution and Current Situation
	3.1 The Arabian-Persian Gulf
		3.1.1 Saudi Arabia
		3.1.2 UAE and Qatar
		3.1.3 Other GCC Countries: Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman
		3.1.4 Iran
	3.2 Mashreq
		3.2.1 Jordan and Lebanon
		3.2.2 Egypt
		3.2.3 Israel and Palestine
		3.2.4 Iraq and Syria
	3.3 Maghreb
		3.3.1 Algeria
		3.3.2 Libya
		3.3.3 Tunisia and Morocco
	Bibliography
4 Low-Carbon Energy Strategies in MENA Countries
	4.1 Drivers of the Low-Carbon Energy Push in MENA Countries
	4.2 The Arabian-Persian Gulf
		4.2.1 Saudi Arabia
		4.2.2 United Arab Emirates
		4.2.3 Qatar
		4.2.4 Oman and Bahrain
		4.2.5 Kuwait
		4.2.6 Iran
	4.3 Mashreq
		4.3.1 Jordan and Lebanon
		4.3.2 Egypt
		4.3.3 Israel and Palestine
	4.4 Maghreb
		4.4.1 Algeria
		4.4.2 Tunisia
		4.4.3 Morocco
	Bibliography
Part III Energy Geopolitics in the MENA Region
5 Geopolitics of Oil and Gas in the MENA Region
	5.1 The Arabian-Persian Gulf
		5.1.1 Global Oil Markets Evolutions and the Major Developments in the Middle East
		5.1.2 GCC Crisis: Political Causes and Energy Implications
		5.1.3 GCC Versus Iran
	5.2 Mashreq
		5.2.1 Oil and Gas Sector in Conflict Countries: Iraq and Syria
		5.2.2 East Med Gas: A Potential Gas Export Hub
	5.3 Maghreb
		5.3.1 Algeria
		5.3.2 Libya
	Bibliography
6 Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation in the MENA Region
	6.1 Geopolitical Impacts of the Changing Global Energy Landscape on the MENA Region
	6.2 Key Factors Determining the Future Geopolitical Role of MENA Oil and Gas Exporters
		6.2.1 Oil and Gas: Different Scenarios, but with Some Common Long-Term Challenges
		6.2.2 Energy Transition: Not with the Same Pace Across the Globe
		6.2.3 Export Portfolio Composition and Its Diversification
		6.2.4 Competition Will Remain and Increase in a Constrained Demand World
		6.2.5 Low-Production Costs and Carbon Intensity Rate
	6.3 Key Domestic Factors Determining the Future Geopolitical Role of MENA Countries
		6.3.1 Population Growth Outlook
		6.3.2 Governing and Financing the Transformation
	6.4 Energy Opportunities and Strategies for a Future Geopolitical Role of MENA Countries
		6.4.1 Energy Transition in the Domestic Energy Sector: Natural Gas and RES
		6.4.2 Decarbonized Products: Electricity and Hydrogen
		6.4.3 International Cooperation with Key Energy Geoeconomic Blocs
	Bibliography
Part IV Overall Conclusions
7 Conclusions on the Transformation of the Energy Sector and the Energy Geopolitics
	7.1 Multiple Challenges Entail Transformation?
	7.2 Transforming the Energy Sector
		7.2.1 Growing Ambition of Renewable Energy Targets
		7.2.2 Common Ambitions but Different Preferences on Low-Carbon Technologies and Solutions
		7.2.3 Ambition Versus Reality
		7.2.4 Factors for Slower Implementation
		7.2.5 Energy Transformation Entails Substantial Social and Economic Transformation?
	7.3 Transforming Geopolitical Factors
		7.3.1 Conflicts and Hydrocarbons
		7.3.2 Old and New Players—A Regional and International Realignment?
		7.3.3 Evolving Geopolitics Alongside with the Energy Transition
		7.3.4 Net-Zero does not mean the end of Petrostates— Strengthening the Competitive Advantages
		7.3.5 New Opportunities and Strategies for Geopolitical Relevance for All MENA Countries: Decarbonized Products and International Cooperation
	Bibliography