The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Figures......Page 9
Tables......Page 11
Preface......Page 15
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 20
1 Introduction......Page 25
Deforestation and development......Page 28
Structure of the book......Page 33
The geographic focus: the Brazilian Legal Amazonia......Page 35
Historical perspectives......Page 37
“Operation Amazonia” and SUDAM......Page 39
The rise of environmental concern......Page 42
Improvements in monitoring capacity and enforcement......Page 44
The distributional impact of Amazon development......Page 45
Avancça Brasil......Page 57
Conclusions......Page 58
3 The municipal database......Page 60
Cleared land......Page 61
Natural vegetation......Page 62
Comparing deforestation estimates based on land surveys and satellite data......Page 64
The Agricultural Censuses......Page 69
Demographic variables......Page 72
GDP......Page 74
Cattle herd......Page 78
Road building......Page 79
Subsidized credit......Page 84
Soil quality, rainfall, and temperature......Page 85
Conservation Units and Indigenous Reserves......Page 87
Neighbor/spatial variables......Page 88
4 The sources and agents of deforestation......Page 90
Cattle ranching......Page 94
Government subsidies......Page 96
Land speculation......Page 98
Other reasons for the expansion of cattle......Page 100
Small- and large-scale agriculture......Page 101
Logging......Page 104
Large-scale mining......Page 107
Placer mining......Page 108
Hydroelectric dams......Page 109
Property rights......Page 110
Secondary forest growth......Page 112
5 Alternatives to deforestation: extractivism......Page 115
The data......Page 117
Mapping extractive value densities......Page 121
Explaining spatial differences in extraction values......Page 125
Conclusions and discussion......Page 131
Previous studies......Page 135
Model specification......Page 137
Modified “general-to-simple” modeling: random reduction......Page 139
Model specification and variables......Page 140
Timeframe of the analysis......Page 144
Estimation results......Page 146
Growth of cleared land......Page 148
Rural GDP growth......Page 151
Urban and rural population growth......Page 153
Growth of cattle herds......Page 157
Paved and unpaved roads......Page 158
Policy simulations......Page 162
Avança Brasil......Page 164
Land-use regulation......Page 171
Conclusions......Page 173
7 Carbon emissions......Page 176
Carbon contents......Page 177
Carbon dynamics......Page 179
Carbon stocks......Page 181
The age structure of fallow lands......Page 182
Clearing......Page 184
Economic growth......Page 185
Biomass content......Page 187
Forest fragmentation and edge effects......Page 188
Steady-state assumption......Page 189
Conclusions......Page 190
The global costs and benefits of Amazon deforestation......Page 191
Economic valuation......Page 192
Choosing a discount rate......Page 195
Non-timber forest products......Page 197
Local public benefits......Page 198
Water recycling......Page 199
Nutrient recycling......Page 200
Fire control......Page 201
Erosion control and watershed protection......Page 202
Carbon storage......Page 204
Biodiversity protection......Page 210
Existence value......Page 212
The value of cleared land in the Amazon......Page 213
The benefits of land clearing according to land prices and site studies......Page 214
The benefits of land clearing according to Legal Amazonia-wide data......Page 215
The benefits of land clearing according to the estimated model......Page 217
Towards a better use of the Amazon rainforest......Page 220
Conclusions......Page 222
Conclusions......Page 224
Policy implications......Page 227
A1 Econometric philosophy......Page 233
A2 Panel model evaluation......Page 235
A3 Random reduction estimation strategy......Page 236
A4 Technical issues with simulations......Page 238
A5 Full model results......Page 240
References......Page 265
Index......Page 281