The Climate of the Mediterranean Region: From the Past to the Future

Front Cover......Page 1
The Climate of the Mediterranean Region......Page 4
Copyright Page......Page 5
Contents......Page 6
Preface......Page 14
Foreword......Page 22
List of Contributors......Page 26
I.1 Introduction......Page 36
I.2 Socioeconomic Characteristics and Main Vulnerabilities......Page 38
I.3 The Mediterranean Region......Page 40
I.4 Paleoclimate Reconstruction......Page 44
I.5 The Climate of the Mediterranean Region in Historical Times......Page 46
I.6 Present Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation and Their Trends......Page 48
I.7 Rain Spells and Their Characterization......Page 52
I.8.1 Temperature Extremes......Page 54
I.8.2 Precipitation Extremes......Page 56
I.9 Water Balance and Mediterranean Sea Circulation......Page 57
I.9.1 Water Balance......Page 58
I.9.2 Mediterranean Sea Circulation and Water Masses......Page 59
I.10 Present Mediterranean Sea Level......Page 61
I.11 River Runoff......Page 63
I.12 Cyclone and Main Synoptic Patterns......Page 65
I.13 Mediterranean Winds......Page 67
I.14 Wind-Generated Waves......Page 68
I.15.1 Variability......Page 70
I.15.2 Radiative Impact......Page 72
I.15.3 Impact on Precipitation......Page 73
I.16 Future Climate......Page 74
I.17.2 Historical Climatology......Page 78
I.17.6 The Role of Aerosols......Page 79
I.17.8 Information for Climate-Change Impacts......Page 80
Acknowledgments......Page 81
References......Page 82
Link......Page 91
1.1 Introduction to Paleoclimatic Reconstruction Methods......Page 92
1.1.1 Reconstruction Approach......Page 108
1.2.1 Origin of the Mediterranean......Page 109
1.2.2 The Mediterranean and the Paratethys......Page 110
1.2.3 Mediterranean Salinity Crisis......Page 111
The Onset of Gypsum Deposition on the Marginal Basins......Page 113
The Lago Mare Phase......Page 114
1.2.4 The Pliocene Mediterranean Flooding......Page 115
1.2.5 Mediterranean Climate During the Pliocene......Page 116
1.3.1 Warm Climate Intervals of the Pleistocene: The Case of the Last Interglacial......Page 117
1.3.2 High-Frequency Variations: The Case of MIS 3......Page 124
1.3.3 Deglaciation(s): The Case of the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition (LGIT)......Page 132
General North Hemispheric Climate......Page 138
The Holocene in the Mediterranean Region......Page 139
HO in the Mediterranean Region......Page 142
The 8.2 Event in the Mediterranean Region......Page 144
Acknowledgments......Page 148
References......Page 149
2 A Review of 2000 Years of Paleoclimatic Evidence in the Mediterranean......Page 178
2.1 Introduction......Page 179
2.2 Long Instrumental Data Series from the Mediterranean......Page 182
2.3 Ships’ Logbooks from the Mediterranean as Quasi-Instrumental Climate Information......Page 187
2.4 Tree-Ring Information from the Mediterranean......Page 189
2.5 Speleothem Information from the Mediterranean......Page 194
2.6 Paleoflood and Storm Records from the Mediterranean......Page 199
2.7 Lake Sediments from the Mediterranean......Page 203
2.7.1 Late-Holocene Climate Records from Eastern Mediterranean Lake Sediments......Page 205
2.7.2 The Western Mediterranean: Late-Holocene Climate Records from Iberian Lakes......Page 208
2.8.1 Tropical Corals......Page 210
2.8.3 Deep-Water Corals: Desmophyllum dianthus, Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora oculata, Caryophyllia smithii......Page 211
Vermetids......Page 213
2.9 Borehole Information from the Mediterranean......Page 215
2.10.2 Vegetation Changes and Land Use......Page 217
2.10.3 Fire Activity......Page 222
2.11 Pollen Data: Their Distribution and Possibilities/Challenges for Climate Reconstructions over the Mediterranean......Page 225
2.12 Sea-Level Variations over the Last 2000 Years in the Mediterranean......Page 230
2.13 Paleoclimate Modeling and Data Assimilation for Paleoclimatological Analysis in the Mediterranean......Page 235
2.14 Data Assimilation with Paleo Data......Page 241
2.15 Conclusions and Outlook......Page 246
Acknowledgments......Page 250
References......Page 251
3.1 Introduction......Page 278
3.2.1 Large-Scale Circulation Variability......Page 282
3.2.2 Mesoscale Circulation Variability......Page 288
Interannual Variability......Page 293
3.2.4 Changes in Water-Mass Formation......Page 295
The Eastern Basin......Page 297
The Western Basin......Page 299
Heat and Freshwater Budgets......Page 301
Climatological Mean Air–Sea Flux Fields......Page 304
Influence of Large-Scale Modes of Atmospheric Variability......Page 305
Regional Modeling/Dynamical Downscaling Perspective......Page 306
3.3.2 The River Runoff......Page 308
3.3.3 The Exchanges Through the Strait of Gibraltar......Page 311
Interbasin Coupling and Contrasts......Page 316
Water Fluxes......Page 317
Strait Dynamics......Page 319
Climate Variability......Page 320
3.3.5 The Exchanges Between the Eastern and the Western Mediterranean......Page 321
3.4 Variability in the Heat and Freshwater Characteristics at Interannual to Multidecadal Timescales......Page 325
3.5 Outlook and Future Research Priorities......Page 328
References......Page 329
4.1 Introduction......Page 348
4.2.1 Tide Gauges......Page 350
4.2.2 Satellite Measurements......Page 351
4.2.3 Comparison Between Tide Gauge and Altimetry Data......Page 353
4.2.4 Measurement of Land Movements......Page 354
4.2.5 Synthesis of Sea-Level Observations into Sea-Level Indexes......Page 355
4.3.1 Observed Mean Sea-Level Trends......Page 356
4.3.2 The Atmospheric Contribution—Variability and Trends......Page 359
4.3.3 The Steric Contribution—Variability and Trends......Page 362
4.3.4 Mass Changes—Variability and Trends......Page 367
4.3.5 Changes in the Oceanic Circulation......Page 369
4.4.2 Changes in the Mean Seasonal Cycle......Page 370
4.4.3 The Atmospheric Contribution to the Seasonal Cycle......Page 371
4.4.4 The Steric Contribution to the Seasonal Cycle......Page 372
4.4.5 The Mass Contribution to the Seasonal Cycle......Page 373
4.4.6 The Oceanic Circulation and the Local Seasonal Cycle......Page 374
4.5.2 Tidal Residuals/Storm Surges......Page 375
4.5.3 Changes in Extreme Storm Surges......Page 376
4.5.4 Meteotsunamis......Page 378
4.6.1 The Role of the Straits in Determining Long-Term Sea-Level Variability......Page 379
4.6.2 Uncertainties in Estimates of Sea-Level Changes......Page 380
4.6.3 Other Open Issues in Mediterranean Sea-Level Research......Page 381
4.7 Conclusions......Page 382
References......Page 384
5.1 Introduction......Page 392
5.2 Teleconnection Patterns Influencing the MR......Page 393
5.3.1 General Characteristics of Cyclones in the MR......Page 400
5.3.2 Seasonal Variations of Cyclones......Page 402
5.3.3 Genoa Cyclones and Mechanisms of Cyclone Development......Page 403
5.3.4 Cyprus Cyclones and Their Related Rains......Page 404
5.3.6 Explosive Cyclones in the Mediterranean......Page 406
5.3.7 Links Between Cyclones and Large-Scale Patterns......Page 407
5.3.8 Synoptic Patterns in the EM......Page 408
5.4.1 Mean Temperature Trends and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Regimes......Page 412
5.4.2 Extreme Temperature and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation......Page 414
5.5 Precipitation Extremes......Page 415
5.6.1 Extreme Winds and Wind Storms in the Mediterranean......Page 418
5.6.2 Local Winds and Wind Extremes......Page 420
5.6.3 Dust Storms......Page 422
5.6.4 Marine Storms......Page 423
5.6.5 Ocean-Wave Variability......Page 424
References......Page 425
6 Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Driving Extreme Climate Events in the Mediterranean and its Related Impacts......Page 438
6.1 Introduction......Page 439
6.2 HW Mechanisms and Impacts......Page 440
Persistent Circulation Anomalies......Page 442
Large-Scale Forcing Mechanisms......Page 444
Trends in Temperature/Atmospheric Circulation Relationship......Page 446
HWs in the Eastern Mediterranean......Page 448
The Western Mediterranean: The 2003 HW Case Study......Page 451
6.3 Mediterranean Droughts and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation......Page 456
6.3.1 Influence of ENSO Extremes on Drought Conditions in the Mediterranean Basin......Page 459
6.4 Mediterranean Water Cycle......Page 461
6.4.1 Characterizing Major External and Internal Moisture Sources Affecting the Mediterranean Basin......Page 463
Main Moisture Sources......Page 465
6.4.2 Long-Term Mediterranean Water-Cycle Changes in Observations......Page 467
6.5 The NAO Impact on Renewable Energy and Vegetation Dynamics......Page 470
6.5.1 The Role of Winter NAO in Modulating Cloud Cover and Available Solar Energy in the Western Mediterranean......Page 471
6.5.2 Assessing the Role of NAO and Climate Variability in the Vegetation Dynamics over Iberia—Wheat Production in Portugal: A Case Study
......Page 475
Case Study: Portuguese Wheat Production......Page 478
6.6 Extreme Weather Associated with Exceptional Large-Scale Circulation......Page 481
Tropical Plumes......Page 482
Ex-Hurricanes......Page 484
Acqua Alta......Page 487
Synoptic Patterns Associated with Surges in Venice......Page 488
Large-Scale Patterns and Interannual Variability of Surges......Page 489
6.7 Conclusions......Page 492
References......Page 494
7.1 Introduction......Page 510
7.2.1 Basic Features of the Mediterranean Climate in Global Models......Page 511
7.2.2 Simulation in RCMs......Page 514
Surface Winds......Page 516
Intense Precipitation Events......Page 519
7.2.4 A Study on the Climate Effect of Afforestation Around the Mediterranean......Page 520
7.3.1 The Mediterranean Sea in Global-Coupled Models......Page 524
7.3.2 The Mediterranean Sea in Regional Models......Page 525
Surface Characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea......Page 527
Water-Mass Formation and Thermohaline Circulation of the Mediterranean Sea......Page 529
7.3.4 A Comparison Among Four Regional Coupled Models Running Under the Same ERA40 Conditions......Page 531
7.4 Conclusions and Perspectives......Page 533
References......Page 535
8.1 Introduction......Page 540
8.2.1 Impact of Resolution......Page 542
8.2.2 Impact of Regional Coupling......Page 544
8.3.1 Mean Climate......Page 545
8.3.2 Atmospheric Water Cycle......Page 549
8.3.3 Climate Extremes......Page 554
8.4.1 Temperature, Salinity, and Ocean Circulation......Page 560
8.4.2 Water Budget......Page 569
8.4.3 Heat Budget......Page 572
8.4.4 Waves and Storm Surges......Page 575
8.4.5 Sea Level......Page 579
8.5 The Uncertainties of the Projections......Page 582
8.6 Conclusion......Page 585
References......Page 587