The Chinese Economy: Adaptation and Growth

Contents
Acknowledgments
1. Introduction: The Chinese Economy in Context
	1.1 Enabling Conditions
	1.2 Growth and Development Level
	1.3 Growth: Looking Backward and Forward
	1.4 Structural Transformation and the End of the Miracle-Growth Era
	1.5 System Reform: An Increasingly Contested Transformation
	1.6 Growth Acceleration and Slowdown
	1.7 Responding to the “New Normal”
	1.8 Using This Book
	Bibliography
I. Legacies and Setting
	2. The Geographic Setting
		2.1 Landforms
		2.2 Climate and Water
		2.3 Provinces and Regions
		2.4 Natural Resources
		2.5 The Built Landscape
		2.6 Changing Regional Dynamics
		2.7 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	3. The Chinese Economy Before 1949
		3.1 The Traditional Economy, 1127–1911
		3.2 The Failed Response to the West and Japan
		3.3 The Beginnings of Modernization, 1912–1937
		3.4 War and Civil War, 1937–1949
		3.5 Legacies of the Pre-1949 Economy
		Bibliography
	4. The Socialist Era, 1949–1978: Big Push Industrialization and Policy Instability
		4.1 The Big Push Development Strategy
		4.2 The Command-Economy System in China
		4.3 Policy Instability
		4.4 Legacies of the Socialist Period
		Bibliography
	5. Market Transition: Strategy and Process
		5.1 The Challenge of Reform
		5.2 Reforms Begin: Political Relaxation and the Rural Breakthrough
		5.3 Accelerated Transition, 1984–1989
		5.4 Interlude, 1989–1992
		5.5 Accelerated Transition, 1993–1999
		5.6 A New Institutional Framework (Political Economy Interlude No. 2)
		5.7 Reform Slowdown After 2003
		5.8 Renewed Reform Initiative After 2013
		5.9 Market Transition: Conclusion
		Bibliography
	6. The Urban-Rural Divide and Chinese-style Urbanization
		6.1 A Dualistic System: The Division Between Urban and Rural
		6.2 Urbanization
		6.3 Rural-to-Urban Migration
		6.4 Economic Consequences of the Urban-Rural Divide
		6.5 Policy Efforts to Close the Urban-Rural Divide Since 2003
		6.6 Conclusion: The Urban-Rural Divide Today
		Bibliography
II. Patterns of Growth and Development
	7. Growth and Structural Change
		7.1 Long-Run Growth
		7.2 Structural Change
		7.3 Investment
		7.4 Production Functions, Productivity, and Growth Decomposition
		7.5 What Is a Growth Miracle?
		7.6 The End of the Growth Miracle
		7.7 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	8. Population: Demographic Transition, the Demographic Dividend, and the One-Child Policy
		8.1 The Demographic Transition and the Demographic Dividend
		8.2 China’s Demographic Transition
		8.3 The Role of Government Policy
		8.4 The Impact of the One-Child Policy and Declining Fertility
		8.5 Changing Age Composition
		8.6 Long-Run Trends and Population Aging
		8.7 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	9. Labor and Human Capital
		9.1 The Chinese Labor Force Today
		9.2 The Institutional Transformation of Chinese Labor
		9.3 How Well Do Labor Markets Function in China Today?
		9.4 Human Capital and Educational Attainment
		9.5 Returns to Other Attributes
		9.6 Labor-Market Segmentation: A Deeper Look
		9.7 The Migration Decision
		9.8 Labor Supply and the Lewis Turning Point
		9.9 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	10. Living Standards: Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty
		10.1 Income Growth
		10.2 Poverty
		10.3 Inequality
		10.4 Physical Quality of Life Indicators
		10.5 Conclusion
		Bibliography
III. The Rural Economy
	11. Rural Organization
		11.1 The Chinese Village
		11.2 Agricultural Collectives
		11.3 The Second Revolution in the Countryside: Rural Reforms, 1979–1984
		11.4 The New Socialist Countryside: Establishing Supportive Government Policy
		11.5 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	12. Agriculture: Technology, Production, and Policy
		12.1 Output Growth in Agriculture
		12.2 The Green Revolution
		12.3 Technology Choice and Innovation in Agriculture
		12.4 Diversification and Structural Change
		12.5 Agricultural Policy
		12.6 Conclusion: Toward Sustainable Agriculture
		Bibliography
	13. Rural Industrialization: From Township and Village Enterprises to Taobao Villages
		13.1 Origins of the TVEs
		13.2 The Golden Age of TVE Development
		13.3 Causes of Rapid Growth
		13.4 Diverse Regional Models of TVE Development
		13.5 The Transformation of TVEs in the New Century
		13.6 Emergence of Rural Industrial Clusters in the Twenty-First Century
		13.7 Epilogue: Taobao Villages
		Bibliography
IV. The Urban Economy
	14. Industry: Ownership and Corporate Governance
		14.1 Entry of Small-scale, Hybrid, and Private Firms
		14.2 A Diverse and Competitive Industrial Economy
		14.3 Ownership and the Public Interest
		14.4 Corporate Governance: Firm-Level Institutions
		14.5 Public Ownership Agencies and Their Missions
		14.6 Profitability and Finance of the State Industrial Sector
		14.7 Sectoral Composition of the State Sector
		14.8 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	15. Technology and Industrial Policy
		15.1 Framework
		15.2 Technology Effort
		15.3 Human Resources
		15.4 Strategies of Technology Development
		15.5 The Turn to Techno-Industrial Policy After 2006
		15.6 A Multistranded Program of High-Technology Development
		15.7 Outcomes
		15.8 Technology Policy Issues
		15.9 Conclusion
		Bibliography
V. China and the World Economy
	16. International Trade
		16.1 Background
		16.2 Reforming the Trade System
		16.3 A Dualist Trade Regime: The Strange Career of Export-Processing Trade
		16.4 WTO Membership and Steps to an Open Economy
		16.5 Composition of Trade
		16.6 Technological Sophistication
		16.7 Trade Partners
		16.8 Accommodating Structural and Regional Change
		16.9 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	17. Foreign Investment and the Capital Account
		17.1 FDI in the Chinese Economy
		17.2 “Zones”: Gradual Liberalization of the Investment Regime
		17.3 The Impact of FDI
		17.4 Sources of Investment in China
		17.5 The Sectoral Composition of FDI and WTO
		17.6 Outbound FDI
		17.7 The Balance of Payments and the Capital Account
		17.8 Accommodating Capital Outflows
		17.9 Conclusion
		Bibliography
VI. Macroeconomics and Finance
	18. Macroeconomic Policy: Instruments and Outcomes
		18.1 The Objectives of Macroeconomic Policy
		18.2 A Snapshot of China’s Macroeconomic Record, 1978–2016
		18.3 The Demand Side and Macroeconomic Policy Instruments
		18.4 Money and Monetary Policy
		18.5 Special Features of China’s Monetary System
		18.6 Chinese Monetary Policy in Practice: Three Episodes
		18.7 Macroeconomic Policy After the High-Growth Era
		18.8 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	19. The Financial System
		19.1 Building Block Concepts
		19.2 Saving
		19.3 The Chinese Banking System
		19.4 Capital Markets: Equity
		19.5 Capital Markets: Bonds
		19.6 Shadow Banking
		19.7 Liberalization and the Marketization of Interest Rates
		19.8 Conclusion
		Bibliography
	20. The Fiscal System
		20.1 Revenue and Taxation
		20.2 Expenditures
		20.3 Central and Local Budgets
		20.4 Rural Government Budgets
		20.5 Urban Government Budgets
		20.6 Local-Government Debt
		20.7 Fiscal Reform and Overall Economic Reform
		20.8 Conclusion
		Bibliography
VII. Conclusion: China’s Future
	21. Environmental Quality and the Sustainability of Growth
		21.1 The Energy Baseline and the Coal Problem
		21.2 Energy and Environmental Policy
		21.3 Pollution
		21.4 Conclusion: The Environment, Sustainability, and Global Warming
		Bibliography
Index