The Art of Thinking Clearly : Better thinking, Better decision

Dedication......Page 2
Title Page......Page 3
Imprint Page......Page 4
Contents......Page 5
Introduction......Page 10
1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias......Page 13
2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion......Page 15
3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion......Page 17
4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof......Page 19
5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy......Page 22
6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity......Page 24
7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1)......Page 26
8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2)......Page 28
9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias......Page 30
10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect......Page 32
11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias......Page 34
12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy......Page 36
13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias......Page 38
14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias......Page 41
15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect......Page 43
16 DON’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge......Page 46
17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control......Page 48
18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency......Page 51
19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS, CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean......Page 53
20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias......Page 55
21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice......Page 57
22 YOU LIKE ME, YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias......Page 59
23 DON’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect......Page 61
24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence......Page 63
25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink......Page 65
26 WHY YOU’LL SOON BE PLAYING MEGATRILLIONS: Neglect of Probability......Page 67
27 WHY THE LAST COOKIE IN THE JAR MAKES YOUR MOUTH WATER: Scarcity Error......Page 70
28 WHEN YOU HEAR HOOFBEATS, DON’T EXPECT A ZEBRA: Base-Rate Neglect......Page 72
29 WHY THE ‘BALANCING FORCE OF THE UNIVERSE’ IS BALONEY: Gambler’s Fallacy......Page 74
30 WHY THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE MAKES OUR HEADS SPIN: The Anchor......Page 76
31 HOW TO RELIEVE PEOPLE OF THEIR MILLIONS: Induction......Page 78
32 WHY EVIL STRIKES HARDER THAN GOOD: Loss Aversion......Page 80
33 WHY TEAMS ARE LAZY: Social Loafing......Page 82
34 STUMPED BY A SHEET OF PAPER: Exponential Growth......Page 84
35 CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM: Winner’s Curse......Page 86
36 NEVER ASK A WRITER IF THE NOVEL IS AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL: Fundamental Attribution Error......Page 88
37 WHY YOU SHOULDN’T BELIEVE IN THE STORK: False Causality......Page 91
38 EVERYONE IS BEAUTIFUL AT THE TOP: Halo Effect......Page 93
39 CONGRATULATIONS! YOU’VE WON RUSSIAN ROULETTE: Alternative Paths......Page 95
40 FALSE PROPHETS: Forecast Illusion......Page 97
41 THE DECEPTION OF SPECIFIC CASES: Conjunction Fallacy......Page 99
42 IT’S NOT WHAT YOU SAY, BUT HOW YOU SAY IT: Framing......Page 101
43 WHY WATCHING AND WAITING IS TORTURE: Action Bias......Page 103
44 WHY YOU ARE EITHER THE SOLUTION – OR THE PROBLEM: Omission Bias......Page 105
45 DON’T BLAME ME: Self-Serving Bias......Page 107
46 BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR: Hedonic Treadmill......Page 109
47 DO NOT MARVEL AT YOUR EXISTENCE: Self-Selection Bias......Page 111
48 WHY EXPERIENCE CAN DAMAGE OUR JUDGEMENT: Association Bias......Page 113
49 BE WARY WHEN THINGS GET OFF TO A GREAT START: Beginner’s Luck......Page 115
50 SWEET LITTLE LIES: Cognitive Dissonance......Page 117
51 LIVE EACH DAY AS IF IT WERE YOUR LAST – BUT ONLY ON SUNDAYS: Hyperbolic Discounting......Page 119
52 ANY LAME EXCUSE: ‘Because’ Justification......Page 121
53 DECIDE BETTER – DECIDE LESS: Decision Fatigue......Page 123
54 WOULD YOU WEAR HITLER’S SWEATER?: Contagion Bias......Page 125
55 WHY THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS AN AVERAGE WAR: The Problem with Averages......Page 127
56 HOW BONUSES DESTROY MOTIVATION: Motivation Crowding......Page 129
57 IF YOU HAVE NOTHING TO SAY, SAY NOTHING: Twaddle Tendency......Page 131
58 HOW TO INCREASE THE AVERAGE IQ OF TWO STATES: Will Rogers Phenomenon......Page 133
59 IF YOU HAVE AN ENEMY, GIVE HIM INFORMATION: Information Bias......Page 135
60 HURTS SO GOOD: Effort Justification......Page 137
61 WHY SMALL THINGS LOOM LARGE: The Law of Small Numbers......Page 139
62 HANDLE WITH CARE: Expectations......Page 141
63 SPEED TRAPS AHEAD!: Simple Logic......Page 143
64 HOW TO EXPOSE A CHARLATAN: Forer Effect......Page 145
65 VOLUNTEER WORK IS FOR THE BIRDS: Volunteer’s Folly......Page 147
66 WHY YOU ARE A SLAVE TO YOUR EMOTIONS: Affect Heuristic......Page 149
67 BE YOUR OWN HERETIC: Introspection Illusion......Page 151
68 WHY YOU SHOULD SET FIRE TO YOUR SHIPS: Inability to Close Doors......Page 153
69 DISREGARD THE BRAND NEW: Neomania......Page 155
70 WHY PROPAGANDA WORKS: Sleeper Effect......Page 157
71 WHY IT’S NEVER JUST A TWO-HORSE RACE: Alternative Blindness......Page 159
72 WHY WE TAKE AIM AT YOUNG GUNS: Social Comparison Bias......Page 161
73 WHY FIRST IMPRESSIONS DECEIVE: Primacy and Recency Effects......Page 163
74 WHY YOU CAN’T BEAT HOME-MADE: Not-Invented-Here Syndrome......Page 165
75 HOW TO PROFIT FROM THE IMPLAUSIBLE: The Black Swan......Page 167
76 KNOWLEDGE IS NON-TRANSFERABLE: Domain Dependence......Page 169
77 THE MYTH OF LIKE-MINDEDNESS: False-Consensus Effect......Page 171
78 YOU WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG: Falsification of History......Page 173
79 WHY YOU IDENTIFY WITH YOUR FOOTBALL TEAM: In-Group Out-Group Bias......Page 175
80 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RISK AND UNCERTAINTY: Ambiguity Aversion......Page 177
81 WHY YOU GO WITH THE STATUS QUO: Default Effect......Page 179
82 WHY ‘LAST CHANCES’ MAKE US PANIC: Fear of Regret......Page 181
83 HOW EYE-CATCHING DETAILS RENDER US BLIND: Salience Effect......Page 183
84 WHY MONEY IS NOT NAKED: House-Money Effect......Page 185
85 WHY NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTIONS DON’T WORK: Procrastination......Page 187
86 BUILD YOUR OWN CASTLE: Envy......Page 189
87 WHY YOU PREFER NOVELS TO STATISTICS: Personification......Page 191
88 YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE OVERLOOKING: Illusion of Attention......Page 193
89 HOT AIR: Strategic Misrepresentation......Page 195
90 WHERE’S THE OFF SWITCH?: Overthinking......Page 197
91 WHY YOU TAKE ON TOO MUCH: Planning Fallacy......Page 199
92 THOSE WIELDING HAMMERS SEE ONLY NAILS: Deformation Professionnelle......Page 201
93 MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: Zeigarnik Effect......Page 203
94 THE BOAT MATTERS MORE THAN THE ROWING: Illusion of Skill......Page 205
95 WHY CHECKLISTS DECEIVE YOU: Feature-Positive Effect......Page 207
96 DRAWING THE BULL’S-EYE AROUND THE ARROW: Cherry-picking......Page 209
97 THE STONE-AGE HUNT FOR SCAPEGOATS: Fallacy of the Single Cause......Page 211
98 SPEED DEMONS MAKE SAFE DRIVERS: Intention-To-Treat Error......Page 213
99 WHY YOU SHOULDN’T READ THE NEWS: News Illusion......Page 215
Epilogue......Page 217
Acknowledgments......Page 223
Author Biography......Page 224
A Note on Sources......Page 225