The Art of Decision Making

The Art of Decision Making......Page 4
Contents......Page 10
Acknowledgements......Page 16
Introduction......Page 18
The questions......Page 22
The imagined world......Page 23
Shifting tides......Page 24
The ripening of events......Page 25
Are you competent or lucky?......Page 26
1 The Clock That Struck Thirteen: The Challenge of Sense Making......Page 28
‘Two dead fish’......Page 30
Hanged in the middle of the play......Page 34
The clock that struck twelve?......Page 38
The clock that really did strike thirteen......Page 41
The perils of experience......Page 44
Turning a drama into a crisis......Page 45
‘It can’t be’......Page 47
2 The Morning After......Page 52
The lantern and the mirror......Page 53
‘Oh what have you done?’......Page 55
Rolls meets Royce......Page 59
Divorce your husband without him noticing......Page 60
Sentence first, verdict later......Page 63
The ghosts of Christmas......Page 64
The magnolia years......Page 66
The lantern flickers......Page 67
3 The Dark Side of the Moon......Page 71
An imagined world......Page 73
Received images......Page 75
The dark side of the moon......Page 77
Love is like . . . ?......Page 80
Hidden possibilities......Page 82
From hell......Page 84
Strangled by a dish of eels......Page 85
All that jazz......Page 88
4 Ghosts and Shadows: Reflections on Information and Decision Making......Page 94
Green light spells danger......Page 96
Do you understand?......Page 97
Painting God......Page 100
Creating confusion......Page 103
Ghosts and shadows......Page 104
5 Tricks of Mind......Page 109
Déjà vu?......Page 111
Weigh anchor......Page 114
‘It could be you’......Page 116
‘Wow! Grab it!’......Page 119
‘Too soon deject and too soon elate’......Page 121
Ending the pain......Page 122
6 The Essential Lie: Exploring the Myth-making Process......Page 123
Building on mud......Page 126
Dressed to kill......Page 128
Waving the magic wand......Page 130
Writing the hymn sheet......Page 131
Singing from the hymn sheet......Page 134
The essential lie......Page 135
The suspicion of witchcraft......Page 137
‘Then came the cat’......Page 140
‘An intensity beyond belief’......Page 141
7 High Tides and Green Grass: The Illusion of Control......Page 144
Illusion......Page 145
‘Feel lucky, punk?’......Page 147
Lightning strikes......Page 149
Illusion piles upon illusion......Page 150
Fine tuning the odds......Page 153
‘Like a child’s sparkler’......Page 158
‘A fire the size of a cardboard box’......Page 159
‘Make pumps 4-persons reported’......Page 160
High tides and green grass – in the desert......Page 162
8 Tales of the Unexpected: Exploring the Paradox of Consequence......Page 165
‘Kickback’: the paradox of consistency......Page 166
Problems, problems......Page 169
The hunter becomes the hunted......Page 172
Winner’s curse......Page 173
The tale of the boilerman......Page 174
The Icarus paradox......Page 176
A runaway bull......Page 177
The tragedy of the commons......Page 179
‘It was a crucial decision, it was the wrong one’......Page 180
Brilliant and daft......Page 182
Chance has got nothing to do with it......Page 187
9 Riding a Tiger: Escalation in Decision Making......Page 189
Mounting a tiger......Page 191
Hidden depths......Page 194
Promises, promises......Page 198
All is human......Page 200
Keeping up appearances......Page 202
Hell hath no fury......Page 204
Money sunk and lost......Page 205
The march of folly......Page 210
Tomorrow and tomorrow......Page 212
10 ‘An Ace of Success’: Knocking at the Door of Fate......Page 214
The events unfold......Page 215
‘An ace of success’......Page 225
Escalation......Page 226
Shifting sands......Page 227
Fiasco becomes inevitable......Page 229
Trusting to luck......Page 230
The fortunes of war......Page 231
11 The Point of No Return......Page 233
The scene is a dilapidated hairdresser’s shop......Page 234
‘I’ve only myself to keep’......Page 237
‘Don’t clap too loudly’......Page 238
‘Crisis, what crisis?’......Page 242
‘Drifting idly towards eternity’......Page 244
Red light spells danger......Page 246
Polishing the chains......Page 249
Clutching the pole......Page 252
Skeletons and cobwebs......Page 254
Rising to the level of events......Page 257
A dog is for life......Page 262
Liars serving truth......Page 265
Take a walk on the wild side......Page 266
Opposites......Page 267
Look hard and look twice......Page 270
Quacks bawling......Page 271
Buying a ‘cut and shut’......Page 273
Fortune favours the brave......Page 274
The illusion of alternatives......Page 276
If at first you don’t succeed . . .......Page 277
Escaping to reality......Page 278
Catch a falling knife......Page 279
Do no harm......Page 280
Squeezing hands......Page 282
Blown off-course......Page 283
Show some emotion?......Page 285
Puzzled as well as beaten......Page 287
Loving to death......Page 289
Why ghosts return to haunt......Page 291
The element of surprise......Page 294
Sweet are the uses of adversity......Page 295
The golden chance......Page 296
Time and tide......Page 297
Epilogue: A Dancing Star......Page 298
Transcendent optimism......Page 301
References......Page 304
Index......Page 316