The 2014 European Parliament elections in Southern Europe: Still Second Order or Critical Contests?

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1. The 2014 European Parliament Elections in Southern Europe: Second-Order or Critical Elections?
	The Context of the 2014 EP Elections in Southern Europe
	Comparing the Electoral Campaigns
	Still Second-Order or Critical Elections?
	Properties of Second-Order Elections
		Participation
		The Notion of the First-Order Electoral Cycle and Types of Voting in EP Elections
		Government Party Losses
		Big Parties’ Losses
		Small Parties’ Gains
	In Lieu of Conclusion
	Acknowledgements
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
	Appendix
2. Renzi’s Honeymoon Effect: The 2014 European Election in Italy
	The Political Context of the 2014 European Election in Italy
	Expectations of SOE and Mid-Term Election Models
		Decrease in Turnout in SOEs and Its Determinants
		Fringe Parties, Incumbent Punishment and the Honeymoon Effect
	Data
	Electoral Turnout: FOE versus SOE
	Incumbent Punishment or Honeymoon Effect?
	Electoral Flows and the Micro-Foundation of Voting Decisions in the 2014 European Election
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
	Appendix
3. Habituating to the New Normal in a Post-earthquake Party System: The 2014 European Election in Greece
	The Context of the 2014 European Election in Greece
		The Election Campaign
	The Results of the 2014 European Elections in Greece: Second-Order Effects under Exceptional Cases?
		The Less at Stake Dimension of the SOE Model and Hypotheses at the Aggregate Level
		Turnout
		Government Parties’ Losses and Small Parties’ Gains
	Micro-level Analysis of the 2014 European Election
		Vote Switching
		Determinants of the Vote
	Concluding Remarks
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
	Appendix
4. Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014 European Election in Spain
	Framing the 2014 European Parliament Election
		The Economic and Political Crises
		The Election Campaign
	Battles Around the Second-Order Elections
	Documenting the Battles with Individual-Level Data
	Turnout and Party Choice
		Dependent and Independent Variables
		Turnout
		Party Choice
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
	Appendix
5. More Second-Order than Ever? The 2014 European Election in Portugal
	The European Elections in Portugal
	Attitudes towards the EU before the 2014 European Election
	The 2014 European Election Campaign
	The Results
	Testing the Micro-level Foundations of the Second-Order Elections: 2004–14
	Conclusions
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
	Appendix
6. Surprising Elections in Exciting Times? Of Proxies and Second-Order Events in the 2014 European Election in Cyprus
	From the Onset of the Crisis to the European Elections of May 2014
	Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses
		Assessing the Government’s Performance
		The Impact of the Economic Crisis
		Euroscepticism
		Political Disaffection and ‘Voting with the Boot’
	Election Campaign
	Election Results
	Voters’ Motivations: Micro-Level Evidence of the Second-Order Election Model
		Method and Variables
		Motivations Behind Abstention
	Conclusions: Of Proxies and Second-Order Events
	Acknowledgements
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
	Appendix
7. The Anatomy of a Misfit: The 2014 European Election in Malta
	The Second-Order Election Model
	The Political Institutions of Malta: Bipolarisation, Stability and Majoritarian Democracy
	The Long-Term Background: Malta – EU Relations Before the 2004 Enlargement
	Ten Years of Membership and the Context of the Elections
		The Election Campaign
		Absence of Europe
	The Vote and the Election Results
	A Second-Order Election?
	Conclusions
	Disclosure Statement
	Notes
	References
Index