Telling the Truth: China’s Great Leap Forward, Household Registration and the Famine Death Tally

Acknowledgements
In Lieu of an Introduction—Debates on the Great Leap Forward: the Significance of a Reassessment
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I Problems Surrounding the Death Counts in the Great Leap Forward
1 Introduction: Someone Must Finally Speak the Truth
	References
Part II Excess Mortality During the Three Years of Difficulty
2 Current Research and Dilemmas
	Studies on the Death Toll of the Three Years of Difficulties
	Terminology, Research Scope, and Methods
		Terminology
		Research Scope
			Research Methods
	What Is “Official Statistics”?
	Research Dilemmas
		Discrepancies in Official Data
		Death Data that Cannot Be Trusted
	Confusion with the Birth Data
	References
3 How to Resolve the Statistical Dilemma
	How Population Data Was Collected Before 1982
	Implications of Under-Registration and Late Registration
		Under-Registration and Late Registration of Births
		Under-Registration and Late Registration of Deaths
		Under-Registration and Late Registration of Emigration and Immigration
	Demographic Limitations of Birth and Death Data
	Have the Official Statistics Been Manipulated?
		Cao Shuji’s Assertion: Data Were Manipulated by the Government
	Yang Jisheng: Adjusting the Data on Purpose
	References
4 Causes of Two Sets of Population Growth Data and Data Adjustment
	Discrepancies Between Registered Population Growth and Natural Population Growth
	Under-Registration and Late Registration of Migration Are the Cause of Confusion in Population Data
	Sun Jingxian’s Estimation Is Consistent with the Historical Facts
		The Possibility of Under-Registration of Migration
		Confusion Accompanying Rapid Industrialization
		How Has the Registered Population Growth Deviated from Reality?
			The Period from 1956 to 1959
			The Year 1960
			The Period from 1961 to 1964
			The Period 1965–1981
	References
5 Bewildering Birth Data: Origin and Adjustment
	Birth Data: Statistical Patterns and Methods
	Why and How the Birth Statistics for the Period from 1960 to 1962 Have Deviated from Reality
	Applying the Figures for the Under-Registration and Late Registration of Births to Make a More Accurate Estimate of the Population in the Period 1960–1962
	References
6 Astounding Death Figures, Cause and Adjustments
	Doubts Surrounding the Death Toll
	Analysis of the Under-Registration of Death in Two Different Periods
	Motives and Possibilities of Intentional Under-Registration of Death
		Intentional Under-Registration of Death Before 1964
		An Estimate of Intentional Under-Registration of Death in 1953–61
			Intentional Under-Registration of Death in 1965–80
	Correction to Intentional Under-Registration of Death
		Principles of Correcting Intentional Under-Registration of Death
			Year-Specific Retrospective Registration of Death
	Can Demographic Statistics Be Estimated?
	References
7 There Were 2.6–4 Million Deaths in the Three Years of Difficulty in Excess of Normal Years
	What Are “Normal Years”?
	The Years of 1962 and 1963 Were Not “Normal”
	An Analysis of Excess Deaths for the Period 1959–1961
		An Estimate of Excess Deaths Using the First Set of Estimated Death Data
	An Estimate of Excess Deaths Using the Second Set of Estimated Death Data
	Reference
Part III A Critical Review of Mainstream Literature and Findings
8 Institutional Constraints on China’s Population Statistics
	Research Methodologies of Some Western Demographers
	Whose Births Were Unregistered According to the Marriage and Fertility Survey?
	Low Credibility of the Data Collected in the Retrospective Marriage and Fertility Survey
	References
9 Problems in the Research of a Number of Chinese Scholars
	Ding Shu Has Been Working on the “Abnormal Decrease of Year-End Population”
	Cao Shuji’s Calculation Method Is Problematic Too
	Cao Shuji Is Not Familiar with the Principles of Statistical Sampling
	Jin Hui’s Dilemmas
	Wang Weizhi’s Research
	References
10 Other Research and Findings
	Jiang Zhenghua’s Research
		Frank Dikötter’s Research
	Can an “Abnormal Reduction in Population” Be Considered “Hunger Deaths”?
	Inside Information is not Necessarily Reliable
	References
11 Tombstone: A Most Influential Work
	Yang Jisheng Did Not Base His Argument of 36 Million Premature Deaths on Calculation
	Yang’s Calculation Fails to Adhere to the Principle of Consistency
	Other Problems in Yang Jisheng’s Calculation
	Why Did Yang Jisheng Choose Not to Use the MPS Data?
	References
Part IV The Main Causes of the Disaster
12 The Extent of Natural Disasters
	Was This an Entirely Man-Made Calamity?
	There Were, Indeed, Natural Disasters
	References
13 An Analysis on Policy Factors
	The Excess Deaths Were Mainly Caused by Policy Failure
		Did the Great Leap Forward Cause the Great Famine?
	Unrealistic Targets, the “Wind of Exaggeration” and Excessive Requisitioning
		How Did “Man-Made Calamities” Cause Excess Deaths?
	The Communist Wind and Communal Canteens Were the Primary Factors
	The Communist Wind and Transition in Poverty
		The Food Supply System and Public Canteens
	People Really Starved to Death
	How China Has Responded to Disasters in History and What We Can Learn from It
	References
14 Are Socialism, Planned Economy, and Collectivism Responsible for the Calamities?
	Shortages in a Planned Economy
	The Market Economy Cannot Avert Hunger-Related Deaths
	Justine Yifu Lin’s Hypothesis Is Not Supported by Empirical Evidence
	References
15 Concluding Remarks
	References
Index