Systems Evaluation: Methods, Models and Applications

Systems Evaluation: Methods, Models, and Applications......Page 1
Systems Evaluation, Prediction, and Decision-Making Series......Page 2
Systems Evaluation: Methods, Models, and Applications......Page 3
Contents......Page 5
Preface......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Introduction......Page 15
Authors......Page 16
1.1 Introduction......Page 18
1.2.1 A Summary on Qualitative Evaluation......Page 20
1.2.3 Brainstorming......Page 22
1.2.4 Delphi......Page 25
1.2.4.2 Methods Derived from Delphi......Page 26
A. Use Questionnaire to Set Goals and Means (Table 1.1)......Page 29
B. Formulate Questionnaires for Experts’ Responses......Page 30
1.2.4.5 Delphi Principles to Observe......Page 32
1.3 Index System for Evaluation......Page 34
1.3.1 Determining Structure of Index System......Page 36
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Indicator Information......Page 37
1.3.3.1 Quantified Indicators......Page 38
1.3.3.2 Normalization......Page 39
1.3.4.2 Eigenvector Method......Page 40
1.4 Comparative Evaluation and Logical Framework Approach......Page 41
1.4.1.2 Method 2......Page 42
1.4.2.1 Basic Concept......Page 43
1.4.2.2 Goal Levels......Page 44
1.4.2.3 Vertical Logic of Causality......Page 45
1.4.2.5 Verifying Indicators......Page 46
1.4.2.7 Logical Framework Approach Used in Postevaluation......Page 47
1.5.1 Hierarchical Structuring......Page 49
1.5.2 Constructing Judgment Matrix......Page 50
1.5.3 Single Level Ordering and Consistency Check......Page 51
1.5.4 Hierarchy Total Ordering and Consistency Check......Page 53
1.6.1.1 DEA Efficiency Evaluation Index......Page 56
1.6.1.2 C2R Design......Page 57
1.6.2 DEA Validity Judgment......Page 59
1.6.3 Improving DEA Validity......Page 60
1.7 Chapter Summary......Page 61
2.1 Introduction......Page 62
2.2.1 Absolute Grey Incidence Model......Page 63
2.2.2 Relative Grey Incidence Model......Page 67
2.2.3 Synthetic Grey Incidence Model......Page 69
2.3 Grey Incidence Models Based on Similarity and Nearness......Page 70
2.4 Grey Evaluation Using Triangular Whitenization Functions......Page 71
2.4.1 Triangular Whitenization Function of Moderate Measure......Page 72
2.4.2 Evaluation Model Using End- Point Triangular Whitenization Functions......Page 73
2.4.3 Evaluation Model Using Center- Point Triangular Whitenization Functions......Page 74
2.5.1 Basic Concepts......Page 75
2.5.2 Construction of Matrix of Uniform Effect Measures......Page 77
2.5.3 Construction of Matrix of Synthetic Effect Measures......Page 80
2.5.4 Steps of Multiattribute Grey Target Assessment Algorithm......Page 81
3.1.1 Postevaluation......Page 83
3.1.1.2 Comparison with Midevaluation......Page 84
3.1.2.1.1 Brief Description of Project......Page 85
3.1.2.1.3 Outputs......Page 86
3.2.1 Preliminary Work and Evaluation......Page 87
3.2.2.1.6 Traffic Engineering and Facilities......Page 88
3.2.3.1 Investment Changes......Page 89
3.2.3.2.2 Preliminary Design Budget Estimate Exceeds Feasibility......Page 92
3.2.4.1 Forecast and Evaluation of Traffic......Page 93
3.2.4.4 Evaluation of Traffic Safety Management......Page 95
3.2.5.1 Management......Page 96
3.3.1 Basis......Page 97
3.3.2.4 Forecasting Impacts of New Roads......Page 98
3.3.2.4.1 Eastern Section: Low Starting Point, Low Growth......Page 99
3.4.1.1 Main Parameters......Page 100
3.4.1.3.1 Project Profitability Analysis......Page 101
3.4.1.3.3 Analysis of Two- Factor Changes......Page 102
3.4.2 Economic Evaluation......Page 105
3.4.3.1 Comparison of Financial Benefits......Page 106
3.4.3.2 Comparative Analysis of Economic Benefits......Page 108
3.5.1.1.3 Environmental Management throughout Project......Page 109
3.5.2.2 Economic Development Correlation of Highway and Line Side Areas......Page 110
3.5.3 Economic Development......Page 111
3.5.4.1 Impact on Total Economy......Page 112
3.6.1.4 Management System......Page 113
3.6.2.6 Impacts of Construction Quality......Page 114
3.6.4 Means for Realizing Sustainability......Page 115
3.7.1.2 Inadequate Design Based on Engineering Survey of Local Roads: Increased Design Costs and Impacts on Progress......Page 116
3.7.1.3 Inadequate Funding Programs and Municipal Matching Requirements......Page 117
3.7.1.6 Inadequate Environmental Protection and Pollution......Page 118
3.7.2 Recommendations......Page 119
4.1 Introduction......Page 121
4.2.1 Allocation of Funds for Scienceand Technology in China......Page 122
4.2.2.1 Conclusions and Problems......Page 129
4.2.2.2 Considerations and Recommendations......Page 130
4.3.1 Index Selection......Page 131
4.3.2 Evaluation......Page 132
4.4 Evaluation of Regional Scientific andTechnological Strength: Jiangsu Province......Page 134
4.4.1.2 Explanations of Indices......Page 137
4.4.1.3 Concrete Values of Evaluation Indices for Scientificand Technological Strength of Provinces......Page 139
4.4.1.4 Grey Clustering Evaluation of Scientific andTechnological Strength of China Provinces......Page 140
4.4.2.2 Explanations of Indices......Page 149
4.4.2.3 Concrete Values of Evaluation Indices......Page 151
4.4.2.4 Grey Clustering Evaluation......Page 152
5.1 Introduction......Page 157
5.2.1 Extended Cobb–Douglas Production Function......Page 158
5.2.2 Data......Page 160
5.2.3 Empirical Research......Page 164
5.3 Energy- Saving Effect of Industrial Restructuring......Page 167
5.3.1 Decomposition of Energy Intensity......Page 168
5.3.2 Changes of Energy Intensity Causedby Industrial Structure......Page 169
5.3.3 Grey Linear Programming Model for AnalyzingIndustrial Restructuring Impact on Energy Saving......Page 170
5.3.4 Industrial Restructuring......Page 174
5.3.5 Conclusion......Page 187
5.4 Energy- Saving Effect of Development and Use of Nonfossil Energy......Page 188
5.4.1 Energy Consumption Structure......Page 189
5.4.2 Energy Consumption Structure Forecasting......Page 190
5.5 Evaluation of Energy Policy......Page 191
5.5.1.1 With and without Antitheses......Page 194
5.5.2 Data......Page 195
5.5.3.1 With and without Antitheses......Page 197
5.5.3.2 Linear Regression......Page 199
5.6 Conclusion......Page 201
6.1 Overview......Page 203
6.2.1 Analysis of Demand......Page 205
6.2.2 Analysis of Supply......Page 207
6.2.3 Selection of Key Technologies for InternationalCooperation by Leading Regional Industries......Page 209
6.3.1 The Principle of Index System Construction......Page 210
6.3.2 Evaluating Indices of Urgency and Possibility......Page 211
6.3.3.2 Analysis of Urgency and Possibility Index Weights......Page 215
6.3.3.3 Relative Importance of Urgency and Possibility Indices......Page 216
6.4 Choosing Model Based on Grey Clustering with Fixed Weight......Page 217
6.4.1 Methodology......Page 218
6.4.2 Priority Orders of Key Technology......Page 222
6.5 Selection of International Cooperative Key Technology......Page 224
References......Page 245
Index......Page 248