Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios

Preface
Acknowledgments
About This Book
Praise for Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains
Contents
About the Authors
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
	Supply Chains: A Brief Primer
		An Illustrative Example: Nestlé’s Palm Oil Supply Chain
		Geographic and Organizational Spread of Supply Chains
		Recognizing the Strategic Importance of Supply Chains
	Twenty-First Century Supply Chains
		Global Scope
		Increasingly Digital
		Increasing Focus on Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG)
			A Deep-Tier Supplier Problem
		Demanding Consumers
	Strategic Supply Chain Planning: Preparing for Unpredictable Environments
	Organization of the Book
2 Managing Supply Chains: Three Organizational Roles
	Different Organizational Roles That Shape Supply Chains
		Functional Role: Integrated Supply Chain Management
			Vignette: Enabling Beer Delivery at Hoppy Brew
		Business Model Role: Value Creation by Managing Supply Chains
			Vignette: Pharmaceutical Distribution by Medford
		Infrastructural Role: Creating Infrastructure for Supply Chain Excellence
			Vignette: Future Freight Flows in the US
	Strategic Planning in Supply Chains
		Strategic Planning in the Functional Role
		Strategic Planning in the Business Model Role
		Strategic Planning in the Infrastructural Role
	Difficulty in Strategic Planning in Supply Chains
		“Wicked” Decision-Making Context
		Myopic Operational Focus
		Absence of Decision-Making Processes for Dealing with Systemic Uncertainty
3 Scenario Planning: A Tool for Organizational Learning and Foresight
	What Is Scenario Planning?
	Scenario Planning: Back to the Future
		Scenario Planning: Coming of Age
		Intuitive Logics School
		Variations of Scenario Planning
	Scenario Planning: A Method for Foresight, Not Forecasting
		Learning from Scenario Use: Anecdotal Evidence
		Learning from Scenario Use: Emerging Experimental Evidence
	Scenario Planning in Supply Chain Management: Case of United Parcel Service (UPS)
		Scenario Planning at UPS Circa 199734
		Strategic Moves After Scenario Exercise
		Scenario Planning at UPS in the Twenty-First Century
4 Designing Scenarios to Aid Strategic Planning in Supply Chains
	Scenario Creation: A Primer
		Scenario Creation: Some Terminology2
	Generic Scenario Creation Process
5 Scenario Creation in Supply Chain Contexts
	Functional Role: Scenarios for Hoppy Brew
		Scope of Hoppy Brew’s Scenario Planning Project (Step 1)
		Hoppy Brew Local Factors and Driving Forces (Steps 2, 3)
		Impact and Uncertainty of Hoppy Brew’s Driving Forces (Steps 4, 5)
		Hoppy Brew’s Scenario Logic and Scenarios (Steps 6, 7)
	Business Model Role: Scenarios for Medford’s Pharmaceuticals Distribution
		Scope of Medford’s Scenarios (Step 1)
		Medford’s Local Factors and Driving Forces (Steps 2, 3)
		Impact and Uncertainty of Medford’s Driving Forces (Steps 4, 5)
		Medford’s Scenario Logic and Scenarios (Steps 6, 7)
	Infrastructural Role: Scenarios for Future Freight Flows (FFF) in the US
		Scope of FFF Scenarios (Step 1)
		Local Factors of FFF (Step 2)
		Driving Forces of FFF (Step 3)
		Impact and Uncertainty of FFF Driving Forces (Steps 4, 5)
		FFF Scenario Logic and Scenarios (Steps 6, 7)
		Supplemental Material for “Out of the Box” FFF Scenarios
			Scenario Booklets
			Scenario Videos
			Planning Guide
			Facilitator’s Guide
6 Scenario Application: General Steps
	Step 1: Immerse in the Scenarios (Individual Scenario)
	Step 2: Identify Scenario Implications (Individual Scenario)
	Step 3: Envision and Evaluate Strategic Initiatives (Individual Scenario)
	Step 4: Conduct Cross-Scenario Strategy Analysis
	Step 5: Identify Scenario Indicators
	Step 6: Monitor Environment Using “Scenario Dashboard”
		Organizational Process for Making Strategic Decisions Using the Scenario Dashboard
		Scenario Dashboard Meta-Review: Not to Be Overlooked
7 Scenario Application in Supply Chain Contexts
	Functional Role: Building an Adaptable Supply Chain for Hoppy Brew
		Exploration of Scenarios by Hoppy Brew Executives (Steps 1, 2)
		Visioning of Supply Chain Initiatives for Hoppy Brew (Step 3)
		Scenario-Based Evaluation of Hoppy Brew’s Capabilities (Steps 3, 4)
			Capability Evaluations for Individual Environmental Factors
			Cross-Scenario Analysis
		Indicators to Monitor Hoppy Brew’s Business Environment (Step 5)
		Scenario Dashboard for Hoppy Brew (Step 6)
			Computing Extreme Values of Environmental Factors
			Assessing Value of Supply Chain Capabilities
	Business Model Role: Anticipation of Environmental Changes at Medford
		Scenario Exploration by Medford’s Executives (Steps 1–3)
		Cross-Scenario Analysis of Scenario Implications (Step 4)
			Robust Implications for Medford
			Contingent Implications for Medford
	Infrastructural Role: Transport Infrastructure Planning
		Pre-Workshop Activities
			Scope
			Objective
			Workshop Duration
			Participants
			Strategic Questions
			Evaluation Elements
			Evaluation Mechanism
			Scenarios
			Debrief
		Exploration of FFF Scenarios at WSDOT (Steps 1, 2)
			Pre-workshop Scenario Exploration
			Scenario Exploration During the Workshop
		Envisioning and Evaluating Infrastructure Investments at WSDOT (Step 3)
		Cross-Scenario Analysis of WSDOT Infrastructure Investments (Step 4)
		Incorporating Workshop Feedback into Traditional Planning Processes
8 Learning from Scenario Applications
	Evaluation of a Scenario Planning Application
		Difficulty in Evaluating Scenario Planning
		Approach for Evaluating Scenario Planning Initiatives
			Evaluating the Effect on Organizational Thinking
			Evaluating the Effect on Strategic Decisions
	Outcomes of Featured Scenario Planning Projects
		Functional Role: Outcomes for Hoppy Brew
		Business Model Role: Outcomes for Medford
			Breaking from Operational Focus to Think About Long-Term Issues
			Focus on Threats but Optimistic Outlook
		Infrastructural Role: Outcomes in Future Freight Flows (FFF)
			Expert Judgment Changes After Participating in a Scenario Planning Workshop
			Changes in Expert Judgment Were Systematic and Could Be Traced Back to the Scenarios Used
			Experts Prefer More Flexible Options After Multi-Scenario Evaluation
	Ensuring Success of a Scenario Planning Initiative
		Start with a Clear Definition of Purpose
		Involve Supply Chain Executives in Scenario Creation from the Beginning
		Refer to Authoritative Sources During the Scenario Creation Process
		Involve the Scenario Project Team in Finalizing the Scenario Logic and Content
		Characterize Unofficial Future as One of the Scenarios
		Measure Effects of Scenario Intervention
9 Appendix
Index