Spreadsheet modeling and decision analysis : a practical introduction to business analytics

Cover
Preface
Brief Contents
Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction to Modeling and Decision Analysis
	1-0 Introduction
	1-1 The Modeling Approach to Decision Making
	1-2 Characteristics and Benefits of Modeling
	1-3 Mathematical Models
	1-4 Categories of Mathematical Models
	1-5 Business Analytics and the Problem-Solving Process
	1-6 Anchoring and Framing Effects
	1-7 Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes
	1-8 Summary
	1-9 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 1-1 Patrick's Paradox
Chapter 2: Introduction to Optimization and Linear Programming
	2-0 Introduction
	2-1 Applications of Mathematical Optimization
	2-2 Characteristics of Optimization Problems
	2-3 Expressing Optimization Problems Mathematically
	2-4 Mathematical Programming Techniques
	2-5 An Example LP Problem
	2-6 Formulating LP Models
	2-7 Summary of the LP Model for the Example Problem
	2-8 The General Form of an LP Model
	2-9 Solving LP Problems: An Intuitive Approach
	2-10 Solving LP Problems: A Graphical Approach
	2-11 Special Conditions in LP Models
	2-12 Summary
	2-13 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 2-1 For the Lines They Are A-Changin' (with Apologies to Bob Dylan)
Chapter 3: Modeling and Solving LP Problems in a Spreadsheet
	3-0 Introduction
	3-1 Spreadsheet Solvers
	3-2 Solving LP Problems in a Spreadsheet
	3-3 The Steps in Implementing an LP Model in a Spreadsheet
	3-4 A Spreadsheet Model for the Blue Ridge Hot Tubs Problem
	3-5 How Solver Views the Model
	3-6 Using Analytic Solver
	3-7 Using Excel's Built-in Solver
	3-8 Goals and Guidelines for Spreadsheet Design
	3-9 Make vs. Buy Decisions
	3-10 An Investment Problem
	3-11 A Transportation Problem
	3-12 A Blending Problem
	3-13 A Production and Inventory Planning Problem
	3-14 A Multiperiod Cash Flow Problem
	3-15 Data Envelopment Analysis
	3-16 Summary
	3-17 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 3-1 Putting the Link in the Supply Chain
	Case 3-2 Foreign Exchange Trading at Baldwin Enterprises
	Case 3-3 The Wolverine Retirement Fund
	Case 3-4 Saving the Manatees
Chapter 4: Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method
	4-0 Introduction
	4-1 The Purpose of Sensitivity Analysis
	4-2 Approaches to Sensitivity Analysis
	4-3 An Example Problem
	4-4 The Answer Report
	4-5 The Sensitivity Report
	4-6 Ad Hoc Sensitivity Analysis
	4-7 Robust Optimization
	4-8 The Simplex Method
	4-9 Summary
	4-10 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 4-1 A Nut Case
	Case 4-2 Parket Sisters
	Case 4-3 Kamm Industries
Chapter 5: Network Modeling
	5-0 Introduction
	5-1 The Transshipment Problem
	5-2 The Shortest Path Problem
	5-3 The Equipment Replacement Problem
	5-4 Transportation/Assignment Problems
	5-5 Generalized Network Flow Problems
	5-6 Maximal Flow Problems
	5-7 Special Modeling Considerations
	5-8 Minimal Spanning Tree Problems
	5-9 Summary
	5-10 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 5-1 Hamilton & Jovanovich
	Case 5-2 Old Dominion Energy
	Case 5-3 US Express
	Case 5-4 The Major Electric Corporation
Chapter 6: Integer Linear Programming
	6-0 Introduction
	6-1 Integrality Conditions
	6-2 Relaxation
	6-3 Solving the Relaxed Problem
	6-4 Bounds
	6-5 Rounding
	6-6 Stopping Rules
	6-7 Solving ILP Problems Using Solver
	6-8 Other ILP Problems
	6-9 An Employee Scheduling Problem
	6-10 Binary Variables
	6-11 A Capital Budgeting Problem
	6-12 Binary Variables and Logical Conditions
	6-13 The Line Balancing Problem
	6-14 The Fixed-Charge Problem
	6-15 Minimum Order/Purchase Size
	6-16 Quantity Discounts
	6-17 A Contract Award Problem
	6-18 The Branch-and-Bound Algorithm (Optional)
	6-19 Summary
	6-20 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 6-1 Optimizing a Timber Harvest
	Case 6-2 Power Dispatching at Old Dominion
	Case 6-3 The MasterDebt Lockbox Problem
	Case 6-4 Removing Snow in Montreal
Chapter 7: Goal Programming and Multiple Objective Optimization
	7-0 Introduction
	7-1 Goal Programming
	7-2 A Goal Programming Example
	7-3 Comments about Goal Programming
	7-4 Multiple Objective Optimization
	7-5 An MOLP Example
	7-6 Comments on MOLP
	7-7 Summary
	7-8 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 7-1 Removing Snow in Montreal
	Case 7-2 Planning Diets for the Food Stamp Program
	Case 7-3 Sales Territory Planning at Caro-Life
Chapter 8: Nonlinear Programming and Evolutionary Optimization
	8-0 Introduction
	8-1 The Nature of NLP Problems
	8-2 Solution Strategies for NLP Problems
	8-3 Local vs. Global Optimal Solutions
	8-4 Economic Order Quantity Models
	8-5 Location Problems
	8-6 Nonlinear Network Flow Problem
	8-7 Project Selection Problems
	8-8 Optimizing Existing Financial Spreadsheet Models
	8-9 The Portfolio Selection Problem
	8-10 Sensitivity Analysis
	8-11 Solver Options for Solving NLPs
	8-12 Evolutionary Algorithms
	8-13 Forming Fair Teams
	8-14 The Traveling Salesperson Problem
	8-15 Summary
	8-16 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 8-1 Tour de Europe
	Case 8-2 Electing the Next President
	Case 8-3 Making Windows at Wella
	Case 8-4 Newspaper Advertising Insert Scheduling
Chapter 9: Regression Analysis
	9-0 Introduction
	9-1 An Example
	9-2 Regression Models
	9-3 Simple Linear Regression Analysis
	9-4 Defining "Best Fit"
	9-5 Solving the Problem Using Solver
	9-6 Solving the Problem Using the Regression Tool
	9-7 Evaluating the Fit
	9-8 The R2 Statistic
	9-9 Making Predictions
	9-10 Statistical Tests for Population Parameters
	9-11 Introduction to Multiple Regression
	9-12 A Multiple Regression Example
	9-13 Selecting the Model
	9-14 Making Predictions
	9-15 Other Model Selection Issues
	9-16 Binary Independent Variables
	9-17 Statistical Tests for the Population Parameters
	9-18 Polynomial Regression
	9-19 Summary
	9-20 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 9-1 Diamonds Are Forever
	Case 9-2 Fiasco in Florida
	Case 9-3 The Georgia Public Service Commission
Chapter 10: Data Mining
	10-0 Introduction
	10-1 Data Mining Overview
	10-2 Classification
	10-3 Classification Data Partitioning
	10-4 Discriminant Analysis
	10-5 Logistic Regression
	10-6 k-Nearest Neighbor
	10-7 Classification Trees
	10-8 Neural Networks
	10-9 Naive Bayes
	10-10 Comments on Classification
	10-11 Prediction
	10-12 Association Rules (Affinity Analysis)
	10-13 Cluster Analysis
	10-14 Time Series
	10-15 Summary
	10-16 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 10-1 Detecting Management Fraud
Chapter 11: Time Series Forecasting
	11-0 Introduction
	11-1 Time Series Methods
	11-2 Measuring Accuracy
	11-3 Stationary Models
	11-4 Moving Averages
	11-5 Weighted Moving Averages
	11-6 Exponential Smoothing
	11-7 Seasonality
	11-8 Stationary Data with Additive Seasonal Effects
	11-9 Stationary Data with Multiplicative Seasonal Effects
	11-10 Trend Models
	11-11 Double Moving Average
	11-12 Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's Method)
	11-13 Holt-Winter's Method for Additive Seasonal Effects
	11-14 Holt-Winter's Method for Multiplicative Seasonal Effects
	11-15 Modeling Time Series Trends Using Regression
	11-16 Linear Trend Model
	11-17 Quadratic Trend Model
	11-18 Modeling Seasonality with Regression Models
	11-19 Adjusting Trend Predictions with Seasonal Indices
	11-20 Seasonal Regression Models
	11-21 Combining Forecasts
	11-22 Summary
	11-23 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 11-1 PB Chemical Corporation
	Case 11-2 Forecasting COLAs
	Case 11-3 Strategic Planning at Fysco Foods
Chapter 12: Introduction to Simulation Using Analytic Solver
	12-0 Introduction
	12-1 Random Variables and Risk
	12-2 Why Analyze Risk?
	12-3 Methods of Risk Analysis
	12-4 A Corporate Health Insurance Example
	12-5 Spreadsheet Simulation Using Analytic Solver
	12-6 Random Number Generators
	12-7 Preparing the Model for Simulation
	12-8 Running the Simulation
	12-9 Data Analysis
	12-10 The Uncertainty of Sampling
	12-11 Interactive Simulation
	12-12 The Benefits of Simulation
	12-13 Additional Uses of Simulation
	12-14 A Reservation Management Example
	12-15 An Inventory Control Example
	12-16 A Project Selection Example
	12-17 A Portfolio Optimization Example
	12-18 Summary
	12-19 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 12-1 Live Well, Die Broke
	Case 12-2 Death and Taxes
	Case 12-3 The Sound's Alive Company
	Phase One: Projecting Profits
	Phase Two: Bringing Competition into the Model
	Phase Three: Bringing Uncertainty into the Model
	Case 12-4 The Foxridge Investment Group
Chapter 13: Queuing Theory
	13-0 Introduction
	13-1 The Purpose of Queuing Models
	13-2 Queuing System Configurations
	13-3 Characteristics of Queuing Systems
	13-4 Kendall Notation
	13-5 Queuing Models
	13-6 The M/M/s Model
	13-7 The M/M/s Model with Finite Queue Length
	13-8 The M/M/s Model with Finite Population
	13-9 The M/G/1 Model
	13-10 The M/D/1 Model
	13-11 Simulating Queues and the Steady-State Assumption
	13-12 Summary
	13-13 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 13-1 May the (Police) Force Be with You
	Case 13-2 Call Center Staffing at Vacations Inc.
	Case 13-3 Bullseye Department Store
Chapter 14: Decision Analysis
	14-0 Introduction
	14-1 Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes
	14-2 Characteristics of Decision Problems
	14-3 An Example
	14-4 The Payoff Matrix
	14-5 Decision Rules
	14-6 Nonprobabilistic Methods
	14-7 Probabilistic Methods
	14-8 The Expected Value of Perfect Information
	14-9 Decision Trees
	14-10 Creating Decision Trees with Analytic Solver
	14-11 Multistage Decision Problems
	14-12 Sensitivity Analysis
	14-13 Using Sample Information in Decision Making
	14-14 Computing Conditional Probabilities
	14-15 Utility Theory
	14-16 Multicriteria Decision Making
	14-17 The Multicriteria Scoring Model
	14-18 The Analytic Hierarchy Process
	14-19 Summary
	14-20 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 14-1 Prezcott Pharma
	Case 14-2 Hang on or Give Up?
	Case 14-3 Should Larry Junior Go to Court or Settle?
	Case 14-4 The Spreadsheet Wars
Chapter 15: Project Management
	15-0 Introduction
	15-1 An Example
	15-2 Creating the Project Network
	15-3 CPM: An Overview
	15-4 The Forward Pass
	15-5 The Backward Pass
	15-6 Determining the Critical Path
	15-7 Project Management Using Spreadsheets
	15-8 Gantt Charts
	15-9 Project Crashing
	15-10 Pert: An Overview
	15-11 Simulating Project Networks
	15-12 Microsoft Project
	15-13 Summary
	15-14 References
	Questions and Problems
	Case 15-1 Project Management at a Crossroad
	Case 15-2 The World Trade Center Clean-Up
	Case 15-3 The Imagination Toy Corporation
Index