Solar Variability and Its Effects on Climate

Solar Variability and Its Effects on Climate......Page 3
Copyright
......Page 4
CONTENTS......Page 5
PREFACE......Page 7
Section 1. Fundamentals of The Solar Interior and Atmosphere......Page 9
2. SOLAR MAGNETIC ACTIVITY AND VARIABILITY......Page 11
3.1. Physical Determinants of Stellar Activity and Variability......Page 12
3.2. The Influence of Rotation on Stellar Magnetic Activity......Page 13
3.4. Other Factors Affecting Stellar Magnetic Activity: Composition and Companions......Page 14
5. VARIABILITY PATTERNS OF SUNLIKE STARS......Page 15
6. EVIDENCE FOR MAUNDER MINIMA STATES AMONG SUNLIKE STARS......Page 17
7. THE STELLAR MID-LIFE CRISIS......Page 18
REFERENCES......Page 19
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 21
3. LIMITATION OF THE STANDARD SOLAR MODEL......Page 22
4.2. Radius Variation......Page 23
6. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS......Page 24
7. DISCUSSIONS OF THE RESULTS......Page 25
7.1. Observational Issues......Page 27
7.2. Theoretical Issues......Page 29
1.1. Linearization of the Stellar Structure Equations......Page 30
1.2. Solution of the Linearized Equations......Page 31
2.4. Solutions......Page 33
3. APPENDIX C: THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS......Page 34
4.2. Energy Generation......Page 35
4.3. Radiative Opacities......Page 36
REFERENCES......Page 37
1. MAGNETIC VARIABILITY......Page 38
2. MAGNETO-CONVECTION......Page 39
3. THE SOLAR CYCLE......Page 40
4. LONG-TERM MODULATION AND GRAND MINIMA......Page 45
5. MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELD SINCE 1610......Page 48
REFERENCES......Page 50
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 55
2.1. A Potential-Field Model for Coronal Field Reversal......Page 56
2.2. Multipolar Potential Fields with Current Sheets......Page 58
3.1. Three-Part CMEs and Coronal Helmet Streamers......Page 60
3.2. Magnetic Flux Ropes and Magnetic Flux Emergence......Page 61
4. CONCLUSION......Page 65
REFERENCES......Page 66
2.1. Global Average......Page 69
3.1. Solar Irradiance......Page 72
3.3. Solar Heating Rates......Page 73
3.4. Photochemistry......Page 74
4.2. Atmospheric Temperature Profile......Page 77
5.1. A Simple Model......Page 78
6.1. Radiative Forcing Concept......Page 79
7.1. Radiative Forcing......Page 80
7.2. Cloud Formation......Page 82
8.3. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation......Page 83
REFERENCES......Page 85
Section 2. Solar Energy Flux Variations......Page 86
REFERENCES......Page 87
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 88
2.1. Outer Atmosphere Changes?......Page 89
2.2. Magnetic Fields and Timescales......Page 90
3. THE CONVECTIVE INTERIOR......Page 91
3.2. Conductivity......Page 92
3.3. Diffusion Timescales......Page 93
3.5. Evidence For Non-Diffusive SCZ Coupling......Page 94
4. OTHER GLOBAL SOLAR CYCLE CHANGES......Page 95
5.2. Diffusion......Page 96
REFERENCES......Page 97
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 98
2. SOLAR RADIOMETRY FROM SPACE......Page 99
2.1. VIRGO Radiometry......Page 100
3. COMPOSITE OF TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE......Page 101
3.1. Corrections for HF......Page 102
3.2. Corrections for ACRIM I, II and III......Page 104
4. COMPARISON OF THE COMPOSITE WITH AN EMPIRICAL MODEL......Page 105
5. SPECTRAL REDISTRIBUTION DURING CHANGESOF TSI......Page 106
6. CONCLUSIONS......Page 108
REFERENCES......Page 109
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 112
2. OBSERVATIONS......Page 113
2.1. Long-Term Satellite Observations......Page 114
3.1. The Solar Ultraviolet Spectrum......Page 116
3.2. Solar Variations......Page 117
4. THE MAGNESIUM INDEX......Page 122
5. FUTURE OBSERVING PROGRAMS......Page 123
REFERENCES......Page 124
Solar Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Variations......Page 127
2. HISTORICAL MEASUREMENTS......Page 128
3.2. Yohkoh SXT......Page 129
3.3. SNOE SXP......Page 130
3.5. LASP Rocket Instruments......Page 131
4.1. X-ray Flares......Page 132
4.3. EUV Variations......Page 133
5.1. SOLAR2000 Model......Page 134
5.3. Comparisons of Measurements and Models......Page 135
6. FUTURE MEASUREMENTS......Page 136
REFERENCES......Page 138
1.1. Definitions......Page 141
1.2. Total Solar Irradiance......Page 142
1.3. EUV/UV......Page 145
1.4. Visible And Infrared......Page 149
2. RELATIONSHIP TO SOLAR ACTIVITY......Page 153
3. COMMON METHODOLOGY IN MODELS......Page 154
4.1. Proxy Models......Page 156
4.2. Physical Models......Page 157
5. PRESENT STATUS OF MODELS......Page 161
6. UNCERTAINTIES AND CONSTRAINTS......Page 162
7.2. Summary and Immediate Suggestions to HelpModelers......Page 165
REFERENCES......Page 166
1. IMPORTANCE OF A REFERENCE SOLAR SPECTRUM......Page 171
2.1 Observations From the Ground......Page 172
2.3 Available Data......Page 173
2.4 Composite Spectra......Page 175
2.5 Comparisons of Measurement and Model Spectra......Page 176
3.1 Results of Merging Spectra......Page 179
3.2 Data Sets Composing the Reference Solar Spectrum......Page 181
3.3 Normalization to Total Solar Irradiance......Page 185
4.2 Comparison With ASTM [2000]......Page 188
5. PRESENT AND FUTURE MISSIONS......Page 190
Acknowledgments......Page 191
REFERENCES......Page 192
1. ENERGETIC PARTICLE POPULATIONS IN THE HELIOSPHERE......Page 195
2. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLES......Page 198
3. OCCURRENCE OF SOLARENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS......Page 203
4. MAJOR SOLAR PROTON EVENTS......Page 205
5. MODELING GRADUAL SEP EVENTS......Page 209
REFERENCES......Page 212
Section 3. Solar Variability and Climate......Page 217
INTRODUCTION......Page 219
1. VARIABILITY OF SOLAR FORCING......Page 220
2.1 Indirect Proxies - Cosmogenic Radionuclides......Page 221
2.2 Separating the Solar Signal......Page 224
3. EVIDENCE FOR SOLAR INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGES......Page 225
3.2 8180 From Stalagmites From the Oman......Page 226
3.4 Early Holocene Climatic Changes......Page 227
3.5 A Solar Forced Younger Dryas ?......Page 228
4.2 Cosmic Ray Intensity and Clouds......Page 229
4.3 Changes in UV Radiation......Page 230
REFERENCES......Page 231
1.1. Manifestation of the Solar Activity by Cosmogenic 14C......Page 234
1.2. Radiocarbon Dating......Page 236
2. PRESENT STATUS OF CALIBRATIONAND A14C TIME SERIES......Page 237
1......Page 239
3......Page 240
4. RADIOCARBON AND CLIMATE......Page 241
5. CONCLUDING REMARKS......Page 243
REFERENCES......Page 244
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 247
2. REGRESSION TECHNIQUE......Page 249
2.2. Climate Forcing Inputs......Page 250
2.3. Natural Variability......Page 251
3.1. Comparing SN96, NS98, NWO1......Page 252
4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 253
REFERENCES......Page 254
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 256
2. EVIDENCE OF A SOLAR EFFECT BASED ON EMPIRICAL/STATISTICAL MODELS......Page 257
3. EVIDENCE OF A SOLAR EFFECT BASED ON SIMPLE CLIMATE MODELS......Page 258
3.1. Simple Climate Model......Page 259
3.2. Radiative Forcing......Page 260
3.4. Results......Page 262
4. EVIDENCE OF A SOLAR EFFECT BASED ON GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS......Page 264
4.1. General Characteristics of AOGCMs......Page 265
4.3. "Optimal Detection" Method......Page 267
5. A WAY FORWARD......Page 272
Acknowledgments......Page 273
REFERENCES......Page 274
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 278
2. SOLAR UV SPECTRAL IRRADIANCE VARIABILITY......Page 279
3. STRATOSPHERIC RESPONSES ON THE SOLAR ROTATION TIME SCALE......Page 280
4.1 Middle and Upper Stratospheric Ozone......Page 283
4.2 Middle and Upper Stratospheric Temperature......Page 284
4.3 Lower Stratospheric Geopotential, Ozone, and Temperature......Page 285
4.4 Lower Stratospheric QBO......Page 287
5.1 Downward Propagation From the Upper to the Lower Stratosphere......Page 288
5.2 Coupling to the Tropical Lower Stratosphere......Page 290
5.4 Tropospheric Consequences......Page 292
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 293
REFERENCES......Page 294
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 299
2.1. Temporal Characteristics......Page 300
2.2. Spatial Influence......Page 301
3. PRODUCTION OF HOx CONSTITUENTS BY SPES-MODEL COMPUTATIONS......Page 302
4. PRODUCTION OF NO y CONSTITUENTS BY SPES......Page 304
4.2. Model Computations? Yearly Production of NOy......Page 305
4.3. Measurements and Model Computations of July 2000 SPE-produced NOy......Page 306
5.1. Short-term Effects from HOx Constituents......Page 307
5.2. Long-term Effects from NOy Constituents......Page 308
5.3. Self-healing and Halogen Interference Leading to Ozone Increases......Page 309
5.4. Total Column Ozone Changes......Page 310
7. CONCLUSIONS......Page 311
REFERENCES......Page 312
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 314
2. CORRELATIONS OF CLOUD PROPERTIES WITH DECADAL GCR AND SUNSPOT VARIATIONS......Page 316
3.3. GCR and Ion Production Variations......Page 317
4.1. General......Page 319
5.1. Modulation of .1-z in the Global Circuit......Page 322
5.2. Variation With Latitude ofJz Responses to GCR Changes......Page 323
5.4. Electroscavenging......Page 324
5.5. Electroscavenging and Ice Formation......Page 325
6. EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION AND LIFETIMES OF CLOUDS......Page 326
7. DYNAMICAL AND RADIATIVE EFFECTS OFCLOUD CHANGES......Page 327
8. CONSISTENCY OF CORRELATIONS WITHMECHANISMS......Page 329
REFERENCES......Page 330
Impact of Solar EUV, XUV, and X-Ray Variations on Earth's Atmosphere......Page 333
2. UPPER ATMOSPHERE RESPONSE TO EUV......Page 334
3. UPPER ATMOSPHERE RESPONSE TO SOFT X-RAYS XUV......Page 342
4. IMPACT OF SOLAR X-RAYS......Page 344
REFERENCES......Page 345
1. SUMMARY......Page 347
2. FUTURE REQUIREMENTS AND JUSTIFICATION......Page 349
3. CONCLUSIONS......Page 353
REFERENCES......Page 354