Shaping the Future of Your Business: How To Enable Your Organisation To Manage Market Changes and Crises

Foreword
The Day After Corona: Thoughts on the Second Edition
Foreword
Contents
About the Author
List of Figures
1: About the Inability to Predict the Future
	1.1	 A Future Concept Especially Medium-Sized Companies?
	1.2	 Preparing for the Future Requires above all Else
	1.3	 Reality: Predictions without Imagination
	1.4	 Linear Thinking Prevents a Successful Future!
	1.5	 Those Who Do Not Prepare Lose out: Even in the Age of Pandemics
	1.6	 Try it yourself: Predict Just 24 Hours of your Life
	1.7	 What Can Big Data Really Do? And cannot?
	1.8	 The Flock, the Flock Bird and the Consultant
	References
2: Eight Typical Thinking Errors
	2.1	 Bias 1: The Linear View of Time
	2.2	 Bias 2: Compulsive Pattern Recognition
	2.3	 Bias 3: The Hindsight Bias
	2.4	 Bias 4: Black Swans
	2.5	 Bias 5: The Rules of Chaos
	2.6	 Bias 6: Physical Laws
	2.7	 Bias 7: Experts
	2.8	 Bias 8: Extrapolations
	References
3: Learning from the Mistakes and Successes of Others
	3.1	 Kodak: A Market Does Not Belong to any Company
	3.2	 Olympia: Visions of the Future without Imagination
	3.3	 Swissair: Overestimating its Position
	3.4	 Daimler/AEG/Olympia: Failing to Recognize Opportunities
	3.5	 Polaroid et al.: You cannot Win by Retreating
	3.6	 Ikea: Identifying Opportunities in Challenges
	3.7	 Shell: There Is More than One Future
	3.8	 Rügenwalder Mühle: Innovation Can Be Planned
	3.9	 Casio: Identifying and Exploiting Market Changes
	3.10	 Apple: Acting Instead of Waiting
	3.11	 Learning from the Past? Yes. Prediction? No!
	References
4: Dealing with Changing Markets
	4.1	 Three Types of Changes: Evolution, Revolution, Disruption
	4.2	 People, Technology and Business Models
	4.3	 Future you Have Overlooked?
	4.4	 More Precise Planning through Feedback Loops
	4.5	 Is there a “Right” Mind-Set?
		4.5.1	 Resilience: Stay Ready for the Change!
		4.5.2	 The Never-Ending Story: Future Management Never Ends!
		4.5.3	 Involving Employees
		4.5.4	 Thinking and Working Holistically
		4.5.5	 Developing Scenarios
		4.5.6	 Your Customers Do Not Know the Future either
		4.5.7	 Even the Tiniest Changes Revolutionise a Market
		4.5.8	 Outsiders: Attacks from the Side
		4.5.9	 Competing with yourself
		4.5.10	 Once Again: Future Management Never Ends!
	4.6	 Let’s Be Frank: Are you the Right Manager for the Job?
		4.6.1	 Phase I: Creative Start-Up
		4.6.2	 Phase II: The Company Is Established
		4.6.3	 Phase III: The Downturn
	References
5: Creating your Toolbox for the Future
	5.1	 Research Methods
		5.1.1	 Tip 1: Determine What you Want to Find
		5.1.2	 Tip 2: Search as you Would Design a Web Page on the Topic
		5.1.3	 Tip 3: If you Are Not a Native English Speaker: Search in English Too
		5.1.4	 Tip 4: Switch Google to English Language Search Results
	5.2	 Google Day
	5.3	 Framing the Future: Future Scenarios
		5.3.1	 Step 1: Determine the Influencing Factors
		5.3.2	 Step 2: Define the Characteristics
		5.3.3	 Step 3: Define Meaningful Scenarios
		5.3.4	 Step 4: The Scenarios: Make the Story
	5.4	 Business Wargame
	5.5	 The Strategy Diagram
		5.5.1	 Step 1: Who Is your Competitor?
		5.5.2	 Step 2: The Activity Mindmap
		5.5.3	 Step 3: Scope of Activities
		5.5.4	 Step 4: Add your Own company’s Values to the Strategy Diagram
		5.5.5	 Step 5: Strategy Development
	5.6	 Tactical Prioritisation
		5.6.1	 Step 1: Identification of Contact Points/Measures
		5.6.2	 Step 2: The Customer Survey
		5.6.3	 Step 3: The Statistical Evaluation
	References
6: Planning the Process
	6.1	 Research
	6.2	 Analysis
	6.3	 Interpretation
	6.4	 Reaction Test: Strategy Check
	6.5	 Future Scenarios
	6.6	 Strategy Development & Action
	References
7: Designing the Initial Workshop
	7.1	 The Briefing
	7.2	 The Preliminary Research and the Oetkers’ Egg
	7.3	 The Workshop
8: Never Again: Creative Crisis Management for the Time after Corona
	8.1	 Resilience: Remaining Ready for Change
	8.2	 Thinking about Processes
	8.3	 Raising Employee Awareness
	8.4	 Working Holistically: Crisis Are Not a Departmental Issue
	8.5	 Developing Scenarios
	8.6	 Paying Attention to Small Deviations
	8.7	 Paying Attention to Marginal Issues
	8.8	 Examine Yourself
	8.9	 Remain Vigilant
	Reference
9: Background Information
	9.1	 Quotes from People Who Seemed to Know better
	Further Reading
		On the Unpredictability of the Future
		Ideas and Forecasts for the Future
		Beck, München
		Studies on the (Mis) Success Secrets of Successful Companies
		Thinking Errors and Pattern Recognition
		Workshop and Organizational Concepts
Appendix A. Your Future: A Conclusion
Index