Scientific Models and Decision Making

Cover
Title page
Copyright page
Scientific Models and Decision-Making
	Contents
	1 Introduction
		1.1 What Is a Model?
		1.2 Are There ‘Types’ of Models?
			1.2.1 Abstract/Mental Models
			1.2.2 Concrete Models
			1.2.3 Data Models
			1.2.4 Mathematical (including Computational) Models
		1.3 Mathematical and Computational Models: A Closer Look
			1.3.1 Idealization
			1.3.2 Articulation
			1.3.3 Sensitivity
			1.3.4 Credentials
			1.3.5 Skill
		1.4 Conclusion
	2 Adequacy for Purpose
		2.1 Introduction
		2.2 A Zero-Dimensional Energy Balance Model
		2.3 Weather Forecasting Model
		2.4 Climate Models
		2.5 Conclusion
	3 Inadequacy for Purpose
		3.1 Introduction
		3.2 SIR Models: From Overshoot to Lockdown?
		3.3 Two Kinds of Risk
		3.4 Models for Public Decisions
		3.5 Conclusion
	4 Models and Values
		4.1 Introduction
		4.2 A Basic ‘Values in Modelling’ Framework
			4.2.1 What to Represent: A High-Level View
			4.2.2 Fine-Grained Representational Decisions
			4.2.3 Inferential Decisions
		4.3 The Ethical Significance of Including and Excluding Variables
		4.4 The Expected Utility of Representational Decisions
		4.5 Case Study: Imperial College London Model
			4.5.1 Background
			4.5.2 What Is Represented? Study Topic and End Points in Context
			4.5.3 Finer-Grained Representational Decisions
				Other Variables
				Parameters
			4.5.4 Uncertainty
			4.5.5 Choice of Counterfactuals for Projection
		4.6 Moral Responsibilities in Modelling
		4.7 Public Participation in Modelling
		4.8 Conclusion
References