Russia After the Global Economic Crisis

Contents......Page 3
Preface......Page 5
Foreword......Page 8
Introduction......Page 12
The Arguments......Page 13
The Russia Balance Sheet......Page 17
Ch 1: Challenges Facing the Russian Economy after the Crisis \r......Page 20
Before the Crisis......Page 21
The Crisis......Page 27
Russia After the Crisis: The Challenges......Page 39
Strategic Priorities for Russia......Page 44
What Next?......Page 49
Ch 2: Russian Politics in a Time of Economic Turmoil\r......Page 50
Economic Crisis and Recovery......Page 52
Consequences of Economics for Politics......Page 53
Presidential Popularity and Political Constraints......Page 57
Politics in the Financial Crisis......Page 63
Conclusion......Page 65
Ch 3: Federalism in Russia \r......Page 70
Principles of Federalism......Page 71
Yeltsin’s Decentralization in the 1990s......Page 72
Reforming State-Corroding Federalism: Lessons from Other Developing Countries\r......Page 79
Putin’s Centralization: Follow Mexico or China?......Page 82
Conclusion......Page 87
Ch 4: Corruption and Rule of Law\r......Page 90
Context......Page 92
The Putin Report Card: Corruption......Page 94
Legal Institutions......Page 97
The Power of Friends in High Places......Page 101
Caveats and Observations......Page 102
President Medvedev’s Turn......Page 103
Implications\r......Page 104
Ch 5: Role of High-Technology Industries......Page 106
Russia’s Heritage in High-Technology Industries......Page 107
Current Role of High-Technology Industries......Page 110
Future Role of High-Technology Industries......Page 129
Conclusion......Page 133
Ch 6: Climate Change and Role of \rEnergy Efficiency......Page 136
Russia and Climate Change......Page 138
Russia’s Role in International Climate Policy......Page 141
Climate Policy at Home......Page 145
Politics of Climate Change Policy......Page 146
Energy Efficiency and the Economic Benefits of an Affirmative Climate Policy\r......Page 148
An Opportunity for US-Russia Engagement......Page 160
Ch 7: Gazprom: Challenged Giant in Need of Reform \r......Page 162
Gazprom’s Traditional Strategy......Page 163
Challenges Hit Gazprom......Page 168
Gazprom’s Response to the Crisis......Page 173
An Alternative Russian Gas Policy......Page 177
Ch 8: Military Reform against Heavy Odds\r......Page 180
Origins and Design of the Military Reform......Page 181
The Thinking behind the Military Reform......Page 183
A Team of Reluctant and Accidental Reformers......Page 186
Reform of the Army Is Radical but not Radical Enough......Page 189
The Overexploited Navy and the Undertrained Air Force......Page 191
Financial Matters and the Dysfunctional Military-Industrial Complex\r......Page 193
Conclusion: Profound Change but Limited Success......Page 195
Ch 9: Russian Foreign Policy: Modernization or Marginalization?\r......Page 198
Still Searching for a Global Role......Page 199
Project CIS on Life Support......Page 200
Russia’s Great Power Pretensions Need a Reality Check......Page 205
Sketching Russia’s Way Forward......Page 207
Ch 10: Foreign Economic Policy at a Crossroads \r......Page 212
Gains from WTO Accession to Russia......Page 213
Russia’s Commitments to Foreign Exporters and Investors......Page 216
Are WTO Accession Demands on Russia Excessive?......Page 218
Remaining Issues in WTO Accession......Page 222
Acceding as a Customs Union: What Does It Mean for Russia’s Trade Policy?......Page 224
The Jackson-Vanik Amendment......Page 225
Foreign Direct Investment......Page 226
Improving Customs: Uniform Tariffs or Preshipment Inspection?......Page 230
Is Russia’s Accession to the WTO Crucial to the International Community or to Russia?......Page 231
Ch 11: The Post-Soviet Space: An Obituary \r......Page 234
Dissolution of the Soviet Union......Page 235
CIS: A Patchwork of Trial and Error......Page 238
Territorial Integrity or the “Biggest Geopolitical Disaster of the Century?......Page 239
Gas Policy: More Aggressive than Successful......Page 241
Well-Intentioned but Unsuccessful Trade Policy......Page 242
Russian Financial Assistance to Counter the Global Financial Crisis......Page 247
China’s New Expansive Role......Page 248
The European Union’s Eastern Partnership......Page 249
Conclusion: Dissolve the CIS as a Goodwill Gesture!......Page 250
Ch 12: US-Russia Relations: Constraints of Mismatched Strategic Outlooks \r......Page 252
The Obama Administration’s “Reset Button? for Russia: Back to Pragmatic Engagement and Multilateralism......Page 254
Russia’s Relative Strategic Decline and Core Miscalculation......Page 256
Obama’s Three Core Motivations for the “Reset Button?......Page 257
Conclusion......Page 264
Ch 13: Russia’s Course: Viable in the Short Term but Unsustainable in the Long Term \r......Page 268
About the Contributors......Page 274
Index......Page 278