River Ice Processes and Ice Flood Forecasting: A Guide for Practitioners and Students

Preface to the Second edition
Preface to the First edition
Acknowledgements
Disclaimer
Contents
1 Introduction
	River Ice Processes and Ice-Jam Floods
	Stage-Frequency and Flood Frequency Distributions
	Ice-Jam Flood Forecasting
	Intended Audience and Layout of the Book
	How to Use This Book
	References
2 Freeze-Up
	Border Ice
	Frazil Ice Generation and Pancake Ice
	Ice-Cover Formation
	Dauphin River Example
	Anchor Ice and Aufeis
	Influence of Lake Inlets and Outlets on Ice Formation
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Cooling Length of River Reach with Freezing Air Temperatures
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Length of Ice Cover Formed at Freeze-Up
	References
3 Ice-Cover Monitoring
	Ice Thicknesses and Snow Depths
	Tracking Ice-Cover Formation
	Ice Type
	In-Situ Ice Strength Measurements
	Implications for End-of-Winter Breakup and Ice Jamming
	Ice Cores and Crystallography
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Cumulative Degree-Days of Freezing
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Stefan’s Equation
	References
4 Ice-Cover Breakup and Ice Jamming
	Ice-Cover Breakup
	Ice Jams and Ice Runs
	Paper and Pencil Exercise—Equilibrium Ice Jam
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Ice-Jam Calibration
	References
5 Remote Sensing
	General Description
	Microwave Remote Sensing of Ice Covers
	Monitoring Ice Type and Thicknesses Using Microwave Remote Sensing
	ArcGIS Exercise—Extraction of Longitudinal Backscatter Profile
	References
6 Numerical Modelling of River Ice Processes (Model Description)
	Public-Domain River-Ice Hydraulic Model
	Ice Deposition, Erosion and In-transit Motion
	Leading Edge Stability
	Barriers
	Ice Formation
	Hydraulic Roughness
	Border Ice
	Boundary Conditions
	Modelling Exercise—Running RIVICE
	References
7 Numerical Modelling of River Ice Processes (Application)
	Background
	Site Description
	Computer Modelling Setup and Model Analysis
		Cross-Sections
		Boundary Conditions
		Local Sensitivity Analysis
	Simulations
	Sensitivity Analyses
		Inflowing Water and Ice
		Ice-Jam Cover
		Flow Resistance
		Intact Ice Cover Before Jamming
		Under-Ice Cover Transport
	Dredging Scenario as a Mitigation Strategy
	Additional Options for Ice-Jam Mitigation
	Outlook
	Modelling Exercise—Local Sensitivity Analysis Using RIVICE
	References
8 Stochastic Modelling Framework
	Approach
	Calibration of the Downstream Water-Level Elevation Distribution
	Calibration of the Volume-of-Ice Distribution
	Conceptualisation of the Forecasting Framework
	Operational Forecasting Using the Framework
		Pre-forecast, Calibration Setup
		Forecasting Mode
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Stage-Frequency Analyses Using Gumbel Distribution
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Flow-Frequency Analyses Using GEV Distribution
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Calibration Fine-Tuning of Stage-Frequency Distributions
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Ice-Jam Flood Forecasting
	Modelling Exercise—Monte-Carlo Framework for End-of-Breakup Simulations
	Modelling Exercise—Monte-Carlo Framework for Ice-Jam (Ice-Accumulation) Simulations
	References
9 Probable Maximum Ice-Jam Flood
	Background
	Site Description
	Extension of Stochastic Modelling Framework
	Modelling Setup
	Geodetic Datum Height Estimation of the English Point Gauge
	Estimating Additional High-Water Marks
	Lateral Overbank and Side-Channel Flow
	Model Calibration Results
		Open-Water Calibration
		16 May 2012 Ice-Jam Calibration
		17 May 2017 Ice-Jam Calibration
		18 May 2017 Ice-Jam Calibration
		Local Sensitivity Analysis
	Stochastic Modelling Results
		Ice Thickness Distributions
		Flow-Frequency Distribution for Upstream Boundary Condition
		Water-Level Elevation Frequency Distribution for Downstream Boundary Condition
		Lateral Overbank Flow
		Monte-Carlo Simulations
		Sources of Uncertainty
	Outlook
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Ice-Jam Staging: Probable Maximum Ice-Jam Flood
	References
10 Ice-Jam Flood-Hazard Assessment and Mapping
	Stage-Frequency Distribution with Missing and Historical Data
	Revisions to the Athabasca and Clearwater River Models
	Further Insights on the Propensity for Ice Jamming at the Confluence
	Re-calibration of the Athabasca and Clearwater River Models
		Open-Water Calibration
	Ice-Jam Simulations
	Sensitivity Analysis
	Stochastic Modelling Framework Extension: Refinements and Calibration
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Monte-Carlo Analysis of Empirical Ice-Jam Model
	GUI Exercise—Graphical User Interface for Single Simulation and Monte-Carlo Analysis
	Graphical Exercise—Extracting Percentile Profiles
	ArcGIS Exercise—Ice-Jam Flood-Hazard Mapping
	References
11 Ice-Jam Flood Risk Mitigation
	Mitigation Options
		Artificial Breakage
		Levees and Dikes
		Instream Structures
	Simulating Ice-Jam Flood Mitigation Scenarios
		Artificial Breakage Scenario
		Levee Installation Scenario
		Ice-Control Structure (ICS) Scenario
	Flood Damages
	Flood Risk
	Fort McMurray Ice-Jam Flood Risk
	Flood Risk Reduction
	Cost–benefit Analyses
		Levee Installation Measure
		Artificial Breakage Measure
	ArcGIS Exercise—Ice-Jam Flood Risk Assessment
	References
12 Ice-Jam Flood-Hazard Assessment of Ungauged River Reaches
	Background
	Dendrochronological Data as an Independent Data Source
	Past Dendrochronology Research Related to Ice
	Site Description of Gauged Reach
	Site Description of Ungauged Reach
		Chronology
		Sample Preparation
	Uncertainties in the Dendrochronological Data
	Stage-Frequency Distributions at the Ungauged Reach
	RIVICE Model Setup
	Open-Water Calibration
		Ice-Jam Simulations
	Monte-Carlo Analysis (MOCA)
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Reach-Based Extrapolation of an Empirical Ice-Jam Model
	References
13 Ice-Jam Release Waves (Javes)
	Two Ice Jams Along the Red River in 2010
	Jave Processes
	Hydrograph Analysis
	Modelling Exercises
	Uncertainties in the Analyses
	Spreadsheet Exercise—Calculating Jave Characteristics
	References
14 Forecasting Ice-Cover Formation and Freeze-Up Ice-Jam Flooding
	Current Freeze-Up Ice Flood Forecasting Systems
	Case Study: Exploits River
	River Ice Modelling Setup
	River Ice Model Calibration
	Hydrological Modelling
	Forecasting
	HEC-HMS and RIVICE Exercise—Forecasting Ice-Cover Formation
	References