Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management (Ecology, Biodiversity and Conservation)

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 4
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Preface......Page 11
Acknowledgements......Page 13
1.1 Uncertainty and denial......Page 15
1.2.1 Two kinds of probability......Page 20
1.2.2 Two kinds of subjective probability......Page 21
1.2.4 Probability words......Page 22
1.3 The origin of ideas about risk......Page 24
1.4 Perception......Page 27
1.4.1 Risk aversion and framing......Page 31
1.5.1 Insensitivity to sample size......Page 33
1.5.4 Anchoring......Page 34
1.5.5 Arbitrary risk tolerance......Page 35
1.5.6 Race, religion, culture, gender......Page 36
1.6 Discussion......Page 38
2.1.1 Variability and incertitude......Page 40
2.1.3 Systematic error......Page 41
2.1.4 Natural variation......Page 44
2.1.5 Model uncertainty......Page 45
2.2 Linguistic uncertainty......Page 47
2.2.1 Vagueness......Page 48
2.2.2 Context dependence......Page 49
2.2.3 Ambiguity......Page 50
2.2.4 Underspecificity......Page 51
2.2.5 Indeterminacy......Page 52
2.3 Discussion......Page 53
3 Conventions and the risk management cycle......Page 56
3.1.1 Ecology......Page 58
3.1.3 Ecotoxicology......Page 59
3.1.4 Public health......Page 60
3.1.5 Economics......Page 62
3.1.6 Attributes of risk assessments......Page 63
3.2.1 Selecting endpoints......Page 64
3.2.2 Targeting risk assessments: ecosystems and indicators......Page 65
3.3 The risk management cycle......Page 68
3.3.1 Context: who pays and what do they want?......Page 69
3.3.2 Problem formulation......Page 70
3.3.3 Conceptual modelling and hazard assessment......Page 71
3.3.5 Sensitivity and decision-making......Page 73
3.4 Discussion......Page 74
4 Experts, stakeholders and elicitation......Page 76
4.1 Whos an expert?......Page 79
4.1.1 Legal definitions......Page 80
4.1.2 Courts as gatekeepers......Page 81
4.1.3 Advocacy, adversaries and authority......Page 82
4.1.4 Philosophical definitions......Page 83
4.2 Who should be selected?......Page 84
4.2.1 Examples of expert selection......Page 85
4.2.2 Post hoc calibration......Page 86
4.3 Eliciting conceptual models......Page 87
4.4 Eliciting uncertain parameters......Page 89
4.4.1 Verbal representations......Page 90
4.4.2 Which distribution?......Page 92
4.4.3 Eliciting distributions and tails......Page 93
4.4.4 How hard should the analyst try?......Page 95
4.5.1 Format......Page 96
4.5.3 Overconfidence......Page 98
4.5.4 Motivational bias......Page 102
4.5.6 The conjunction fallacy......Page 104
4.5.7 Cultural, political and philosophical context......Page 107
4.6.1 Performance measures......Page 108
4.6.2 Performance measured......Page 109
4.6.3 Are expert judgements better than lay judgements?......Page 112
4.7 When experts disagree......Page 114
4.8.1 Delphi and its descendants......Page 117
4.8.2 Closure......Page 118
4.8.3 Resolution......Page 120
4.9 Numerical aggregation......Page 121
4.9.2 Bayes’ theorem......Page 122
4.9.3 Mixing and averaging......Page 126
4.10 Combined techniques......Page 127
4.10.2 The ‘Procedures guide’ for structured expert judgement......Page 128
4.11 Using expert opinion......Page 134
4.12 Who’s a stakeholder?......Page 135
4.13 Discussion......Page 138
5.1 Conceptual models......Page 141
5.2 Hazard identification and assessment......Page 144
5.2.1 Checklists and brainstorming......Page 145
5.2.2 Structured brainstorming......Page 146
5.2.3 Hazard matrix......Page 147
5.2.4 Hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP)......Page 149
5.2.5 Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)......Page 151
5.2.6 Hierarchical holographic modelling (HHM)......Page 154
5.3 Discussion......Page 156
6.1 Origins of risk ranking methods......Page 159
6.2 Current applications......Page 161
6.3 Conducting a risk ranking analysis......Page 163
6.4.2 Discrete hazards......Page 165
6.4.3 Model complexity......Page 166
6.4.5 Susceptibility to linguistic uncertainty......Page 167
6.4.8 Unacknowledged uncertainty in results......Page 168
6.5 Performance......Page 169
6.6.2 The Paper risk rank calculator......Page 172
6.6.3 Western Rock Lobster ecological risk assessment......Page 174
6.7 Discussion......Page 179
7 Ecotoxicology......Page 183
7.1 Dose–response relationships......Page 184
7.1.1 NOELs and LOELs......Page 186
7.1.2 Odds ratios and relative risks......Page 188
7.2.1 Extrapolating to low concentrations......Page 191
7.2.2 Structure activity relationships (SARs)......Page 193
7.2.4 Extrapolating species sensitivities......Page 194
7.2.5 Extrapolating from acute to chronic effects......Page 200
7.2.6 Extrapolating from toxicity tests to ecological effects......Page 201
7.3 Deciding a safe dose......Page 202
7.3.1 Reference doses, benchmark doses and uncertainty......Page 204
7.3.2 A bootstrap estimate of RfDs......Page 205
7.4 Transport, fate and exposure......Page 206
7.4.1 Exposure assessment......Page 209
7.4.2 Modelling transport, fate and exposure......Page 210
7.4.3 Hazard quotients and mixtures......Page 211
7.4.4 Model-based assessments......Page 212
7.5.2 OECD protection thresholds......Page 213
7.5.3 Cotton pyrethroid risk assessment......Page 214
7.5.4 Integrating pesticide risks in Italy......Page 215
7.5.5 Human health thresholds in Australia......Page 216
7.5.6 Methylmercury in the u’Mgeni River......Page 217
7.6 Discussion......Page 219
8.1 Event trees......Page 221
8.1.1 Decision trees......Page 223
8.1.2 Probabilistic event trees......Page 228
8.1.3 Decision tables and expert systems......Page 229
8.1.4 Classification and regression trees......Page 230
8.1.5 Bayesian networks......Page 232
8.2 Fault trees......Page 237
8.2.1 Probabilistic fault trees......Page 238
8.3.1 Decisions under risk......Page 243
8.3.2 Bayesian decision analysis......Page 245
8.3.3 Gains from management of orange-bellied parrots......Page 246
8.3.4 Interpreting decision trees......Page 247
8.3.5 Conservation status......Page 248
8.4 Discussion......Page 254
9.1 Worst case analysis......Page 256
9.1.1 The trouble with worst case......Page 258
9.1.2 Arbitrary thresholds and acceptable levels of risk......Page 259
9.2 Defining and eliciting intervals......Page 261
9.2.2 Probability intervals......Page 262
9.2.4 Imprecise probabilities......Page 264
9.2.5 Which intervals?......Page 266
9.3 Interval arithmetic......Page 268
9.3.1 Dependencies......Page 269
9.3.3 Intervals for site contamination......Page 270
9.3.4 Intervals for risk ranking......Page 272
9.3.5 Intervals for logic trees......Page 275
9.4 Discussion......Page 276
10 Monte Carlo......Page 278
10.1.1 Random variables......Page 279
10.2.1 Uniform......Page 282
10.2.3 Normal......Page 283
10.2.5 Beta......Page 284
10.2.7 Exponential......Page 285
10.3 Choosing the right distributions......Page 286
10.3.1 Goodness of fit......Page 288
10.3.3 Other selection criteria......Page 289
10.3.4 Knowledge and inherent uncertainty......Page 293
10.4 Generating answers......Page 294
10.4.1 Random numbers......Page 295
10.4.2 Pseudorandom numbers......Page 296
10.5.1 Rank correlations......Page 297
10.5.3 Fitted models of dependent relationships......Page 299
10.6.1 Second-order Monte Carlo......Page 301
10.6.2 Models with    incertitude and variability......Page 302
10.6.3 Model averaging......Page 303
10.7 Sensitivity analyses......Page 304
10.8.1 Monte Carlo for the dose equation......Page 305
10.8.2 Monte Carlo for algal blooms......Page 309
10.8.3 Population viability analysis......Page 310
10.8.4 Managing Sindh ibex......Page 314
10.8.5 Managing Baltic cod......Page 317
10.8.6 Multispecies and food web risk assessments......Page 318
10.9.1 Predicting radioactive fallout......Page 320
10.9.2 Predicting extinction risk......Page 321
10.9.3 Limitations and strengths of Monte Carlo......Page 323
10.10 p-bounds......Page 324
10.11 Discussion......Page 327
10.11.1 Monte Carlo for the risk management cycle......Page 331
11.1 Monitoring and power......Page 332
11.1.1 Null hypotheses......Page 333
11.1.2 Monitoring trends in a bird population......Page 334
11.2.1 How many samples?......Page 336
11.2.2 Comparing observations with a regulatory threshold......Page 337
11.2.3 Comparing differences among means......Page 341
11.2.4 When is something absent?......Page 345
11.3 Flawed inference and the precautionary principle......Page 348
11.3.1 The precautionary principle......Page 350
11.4 Overcoming cognitive fallacies: confidence intervals and detectable effect sizes......Page 352
11.5 Control charts and statistical process control......Page 356
11.5.1 Planning......Page 357
11.5.2 Xbar charts......Page 359
11.5.3 R and S charts......Page 360
11.5.4 Rational subgroups......Page 361
11.5.5 Control chart parameters......Page 362
11.5.7 u- and c-charts......Page 363
11.5.8 CUSUM and EWMA Charts......Page 364
11.5.9 Test/reference (control/impact) charts......Page 366
11.5.10 Pattern response and decision thresholds......Page 367
11.5.11 Dependencies......Page 368
11.5.12 Power and operating characteristic (OC) curves......Page 369
11.6 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves......Page 371
11.6.1 Confusion matrices......Page 372
11.6.2 ROC curves......Page 374
11.7 Discussion......Page 382
12.1 Policy and risk......Page 384
12.1.1 Comparative risks......Page 386
12.1.2 ‘Real’ and perceived risks......Page 387
12.1.3 ‘As low as reasonably practicable’: defining acceptable risks......Page 390
12.2.1 Decision criteria......Page 391
12.2.2 Risk regulation......Page 393
12.2.3 Where model-based assessments fit in......Page 394
12.2.4 The advantages of deciding under uncertainty......Page 395
12.3.1 Stochastic dominance......Page 397
12.3.2 Benefit-cost analysis......Page 399
12.3.3 Stochastic dynamic programming......Page 404
12.4 Info-gaps......Page 405
12.4.1 A process model and measure of performance......Page 408
12.4.2 A model for uncertainty......Page 410
12.5.1 Scenario analysis......Page 413
12.5.2 Multi-criteria decision analysis......Page 415
12.5.3 Multi-criteria mapping......Page 422
12.6 Risk communication......Page 424
12.6.1 Communicating probabilities: medical cases and framing......Page 426
12.6.2 Communicating comparative risks......Page 428
12.7 Adaptive management, precaution and
 stakeholder involvement......Page 430
12.7.1 Involving stakeholders......Page 433
12.8  Conclusions......Page 435
Glossary......Page 437
References......Page 471
Index......Page 499