Risk Dilemmas: Forced Choices and Survival

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 5
Introduction......Page 7
1.1 Formalizing risky decisions......Page 12
1.2 The expected value criterion......Page 14
1.3 Decision criteria when probability is unknown or irrelevant......Page 16
1.4 Conditions for indifference between fatalism and precaution......Page 18
Appendix: A fuzzy representation of danger......Page 21
2 Finding Alternatives to Risk......Page 26
2.1 The preactionary approach......Page 27
2.2 Identifying alternatives using backcasting......Page 29
2.3 Backcasting under uncertainty......Page 33
2.4 Backcasting versus backtracking......Page 35
2.5 Maintaining the balance of life......Page 37
2.6 Contrasting the “post-fact” approach......Page 39
2.7 Cost/benefit and post-fact risk management......Page 40
2.8 Avoiding mechanistic precaution......Page 43
2.9 Risk acceptance – risk avoidance – risk anticipation......Page 45
3.1 How risk grows......Page 47
3.2 Why prioritization fails......Page 50
3.3 Pragmatic arguments for not adding risks......Page 51
3.4 Satisfying the burden of proof......Page 52
3.5 A possibilistic model of catastrophic potentials......Page 53
3.6 Is there a “natural” level of risk?......Page 56
3.7 On the notion of “selective fatalism”......Page 58
3.8 Selective fatalism and dilemmas......Page 61
3.9 The “tolerability” compromise......Page 63
4.1 The hallmarks of precaution......Page 67
4.2 Context and risk acceptance criteria......Page 69
4.3 The problem of valuation......Page 71
4.4 Inter-contextual effects of precaution......Page 72
4.6 The need for coordinated goals......Page 76
5 A Reassessment of Risk Assessment......Page 79
5.1 Using risk assessments the right way......Page 80
5.2 Identifying high-stakes risks and their mechanisms......Page 81
5.3 Decision theoretic models......Page 86
5.4 Integrating fuzzy risk thresholds......Page 89
6 Can We Avoid Risk Dilemmas?......Page 92
6.1 The only two options......Page 93
6.2 Facing the paradox of progress......Page 94
6.3 Risk dilemmas and self-interest......Page 96
6.4 The prospect of “infinite disutility”......Page 100
6.5 The need for a wider approach to science......Page 102
6.6 Radical rethinking......Page 104
6.7 Science to the rescue?......Page 107
6.8 The dangers of giving up......Page 111
7 Summary and Conclusion (of Sorts)......Page 113
7.1 Understanding high-stakes decision processes......Page 114
7.2 Making precaution work......Page 115
7.3 How do current regimes compare?......Page 117
7.4 Doing the right thing......Page 120
7.5 Who will lead the way?......Page 124
Notes......Page 129
References......Page 138
Index......Page 143